Climate Change, Energy, and Health: Findings from the 2011 Global Energy Assessment
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1 ClimateChange,Energy,andHealth: Findingsfromthe2011GlobalEnergyAssessment ZoëAChafe,MPH 1,2 KirkRSmith,MPH,PhD 1 1 UCBerkeleySchoolofPublicHealth 2 UCBerkeleyEnergyandResourcesGroup ClimateChange,Environmentand Popula5onSymposium UCBerkeley 6October2011 zoechafe@berkeleyedu
2 Overview WHAT:istheGlobalEnergyAssessment? HOW:doescc*affecthealth? WHEN:andhowmuchwillccimpacthealth? WHY:dohealthco benefitscomefromccmi[ga[on? KEYPOINTS:ifyouremembernothingelse Note:Iusetheabbrevia[on cc forclimatechangethroughout 2
3 GEA:Overview Secretariat: Interna[onalIns[tuteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA) Follow uptoenergyinafiniteworld(1981),energyfor Tomorrow sworld(1992),worldenergyassessment(2000) Includes:summaryofknowledgeandchallenges;new scenarios;analysisoftechnologyop[onsandpolicysynergies Focuson: Providing energyservices, ratherthanenergycarriers Howtoendenergypoverty Energyforsustainabledevelopment Innova[onandstrategiceconomicinvestment Seewwwglobalenergyassessmentorgformoreinforma[on 3
4 GEA:2011 EnergyandHealth Chapter Authors KalpanaBalakrishnan(SriRamachandraUniversity,India) ColinButler(AustralianNa[onalUniversity,Australia) IanFairlie(Int lconsultantonradia[onintheenvironment,uk) PatrickKinney(ColumbiaUniversity,USA) TordKjellstrom(UmeaUniversity,Sweden) DeniseMauzerall(PrincetonUniversity,UnitedStates) ThomasMcKone(LawrenceBerkeleyNa[onalLaboratory,USA) AnthonyMcMichael(AustralianNa[onalUniversity,Australia) MycleSchneider(Int lconsultantonenergyandnuclearpolicy, France) PaulWilkinson(LondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine,UK) Funding:Interna[onalIns[tuteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA) 4
5 GEA: EnergyandHealth WhatElseisIncluded? HouseholdEnergySystems Occupa[onalEffectsofEnergySystems CommunityandRegionalEffects Rou[neHealthImpactsfromNuclearFuelChain EmergingEnergySystems EnergyEfficiency Today:GlobalClimateChange;Co Benefits 5
6 WhyStudyClimateandHealth? Healthimpacts reasonablyalributable toclimatechange havealreadyoccurredandcon[nuetooccur Riseinextremeweatherevents >deathsandill health Drying >badcropyields >adversementalhealtheffects Recognizingriskstohumanhealthstrengthensra[onalefor rapidabatementofclimate ac[vepollutants(cap) Humanhealthcanbea canary (ieearlyindicatorofchange) Giventhis,canbuildcaseforadapta[onifwethinkmore changeiscoming Moralcase:mostdeathsare/willoccuramongchildrenin developingcountries 6
7 HowDoesCCAffectHealth?CategoriesofRisks Directimpacts:heatwaves,extremeevents,urbanair pollutants,etc Ecologically mediated:foodyields,waterflows,infec[ousdiseasevectorsandintermediate hostanimalecology Morediffuseimpacts:egmentalhealthproblemsinfailing farmcommuni[es,displacedgroups,disadvantaged indigenousandminorityethnicgroups,etc Consequencesoftensionandconflict,duetoCC related declinesinbasicresources(water,food,[mber,living space) 7
8 HowDoesCCAffectHealth?Pathways Climate Change: Impacts Direct impacts (extreme weather, heatwaves, air pollution) Physical systems (river flow, soil, ocean temp/acidity, etc) Biological & ecological processes (coral, phytoplankton production, etc) Human Health Injuries/deaths Thermal stress impacts Infectious diseases Under-nutrition Mental stresses Other disorders Economic/social impacts: infrastructure, economic productivity, jobs, displacement, conflict Indirect health impacts, ecologicallymediated: changes in food, water, mosquitoes Indirect health impacts socially mediated Source:AnthonyMcMichael,AustralianNa[onalUniversity 8
9 WhenandHowMuch:HealthRiskAssessments (past,present,future) Statistical study: Estimating the attributable burden of disease Scenario-based modeling: Estimating the range of future plausible risks Empirical Studies: Risk per o C +20 o C +15 o C Natural temperature variation Empirical Observations: Attributable to climate change? Now Modeled future temperature(s) Source: Anthony McMichael, Australian National University 9
10 HowDoesCCAffectHealth?ImpactsNow Sealevelrise:3mm/yrglobalaverage(50%greaterthanin 1980s) Alreadyendangeringfoodyields,freshwatersupplies, physicalsafetyinsmalllow lyingislandstates Temperatureextremesbecomemorefrequent Leadstoground levelozoneforma[on;increased incidenceofstrokes/heartalacksinvulnerable;moodand behaviorchanges Example:ParisHeatWave,
11 Empirical:ParisHeatwave,Aug2003, DailyMeanTempsandDeaths o C Mean daily temp, o C ~12 o C above season norm Daily deaths o C ~100 extra deaths Mean daily temp o C Daily deaths: June July August Source: Vandentorren, AJPH, 2004 ~900 extra deaths during heatwave 11
12 Empirical:DailyHospitaliza[onsforDiarrhea, bydailytemp:lima,peru Daily Hospitalizations Overall estimate from regression analysis: 8% increase in daily cases per 1 o C rise Daily temperature 1993 Source:Checkleyetal,Lancet
13 Empirical:Sweden Tick borneencephali[s SpreadofIxodesricinus[cktohigherla[tudes(andal[tudes) 1980s Warmer winters 1990s Source: Lindgren, et al, Environmental Health Perspectives,
14 WhenandHowMuch:HealthRiskAssessments (past,present,future) Statistical study: Estimating the attributable burden of disease +20 o C +15 o C Natural temperature variation Empirical Observations: Attributable to climate change? Now Modeled future temperature(s) Source: Anthony McMichael, Australian National University 14
15 Sta[s[cal:Compara[veRiskAssessment PartoftheGlobalBurdenofDiseaseprojectorganizedbythe WorldHealthOrganiza[on;published2004 Beginswithknownexposure responserela[onshipsfor climate,withevidencefromvariousregions: Diarrhealdisease,malaria,malnutri[on,deathsdueto flooding,andcardiovascularevents/deathsduetoheat Notincluded:asthma,infec[ousdiseaseduringextreme events,pollenlevels,popula[onmovementetc Useclimatemodelstoes[mate climatechangeexposure in futureyears Resultsexpressedin1)prematuredeaths,2)DALYs* DALYs=Disability AdjustedLifeYears,ameasureofmorbidityandmortality 15
16 Sta[s[cal:CRAResults In2000:04%ofglobalDALYsand03%ofprematuredeaths About150,000deaths,with99%indevelopingcountries 88%oflossofDALYs(toclimatechange)occurinchildren under5indevelopingcountries Es[matedthatclimatechangeburdenwilldoublein2020; whilepopula[ongrows25%oversame[meperiod Malnutri[onwillplaystrongestroleinincrease Source:McMichaeletal, GlobalClimateChange, inezza[etal(2004,who) 16
17 DeathsAlributabletoClimateChange:Year2000 Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition (~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K) 14 WHO statistical regions scaled by estimated annual mortality (in 2000) due to change in climate since ~1970 Selected major causes of death Source: Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on McMichael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al,
18 WhenandHowMuch:HealthRiskAssessments (past,present,future) Scenario-based modeling: Estimating the range of future plausible risks +20 o C +15 o C Natural temperature variation Empirical Observations: Attributable to climate change? Now Modeled future temperature(s) Source: Anthony McMichael, Australian National University 18
19 Scenario Based:Poten[alMalariaTransmission inzimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Baseline Harare Highlands Bulawayo Source:Ebietal,Clima[cChange,
20 Scenario Based:Poten[alMalaria TransmissioninZimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Baseline Harare Bulawayo Source:Ebietal,Clima[cChange,
21 Scenario Based:Poten[alMalaria TransmissioninZimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Baseline Harare Bulawayo Source:Ebietal,Clima[cChange,
22 Scenario Based:DengueinAustralia Es[mated recep[ve regionforaeaegyp[mosquitovector(2050) Broome Port Hedland Darwin Katherine Cairns Townsville Mackay Current risk region for dengue transmission Brisbane Rockhampton Carnarvon Broome Port Hedland Darwin Katherine Cairns Risk region for medium emissions scenario, 2050 Broome Port Hedland ~ o C Darwin Katherine ~ o C Townsville Mackay Rockhampton Cairns Risk region for high Carnarvon emissions scenario, 2050 Townsville Mackay Rockhampton Source:ANUNCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago,
23 FoodYields:GeneralRela[onshipof TemperatureandPhotosynthesis Photosynthetic activity 100% 0% +2 o C +2 o C Plus: Flood/storm/fire damage Droughts range, severity 20 o C 30 o C 40 o C Pests (climate-sensitive) Diseases (ditto) Globally averaged estimate: +05 C reduces crop yields by 3-5% Source: Lobell and Field, Environ Research Letters,
24 ModeledChangesinCerealGrainYields,to Source: UN Development Program, 2009 Percentage change in yields to Plus climate-related: Flood/storm/fire damage Droughts range, severity Pests (climate-sensitive) Infectious diseases (ditto) 24
25 Onthebrightside:health co benefits Reducingfossilfueluseforpowerproduc[on: Improvesairquality;reducesrespiratoryandcardiodisease Increasinguseofmasstransit,cyclingandwalking: Increasesphysicalac[vity,reducesobesity,s[mulatessocial contact Promo[ngwomen scontrolovertheirfer[lityworldwide: Reducesmaternalandchildmortality,assistsinmee[ng MillenniumDevelopmentGoals NOTE:notallclimatemi[ga[onstrategiesalignwellwithhealth goals Elimina[ng cooling par[culatemixeswillhelpmeethealth goals,butwillnothelpmi[gateclimatechange 25
26 Keypoints MostimpactsofCConhealthwillbeadverseCCwillexacerbate exis[nghealthproblems CCwillmakeitmoredifficultto1)improvehealthinlow income countriesand2)reducepersistenthealthinequi[es WHOes[matesthatmalnutri[on amongchildrenin developingcountries wasthelargestcauseofill healthand prematuredeathin2000 Broadagreement :asccprogresses,thelargestburdenswill comefromindirecteffects(malnutri[on,infec[ousdisease, conflictanddisplacement) Mi[ga[onpolicieswill,ingeneral,createlocalhealthbenefits ( healthco benefits ) afurtherincen[vetotakeac[ononcc Healthsectormustbeapart,butnotthewhole,responseto healthandclimateconcerns,especiallyvisavisadapta[on 26
27 Acknowledgements GEAHealthAuthors: KalpanaBalakrishnan(SriRamachandraUniversity,India) ColinButler(AustralianNa[onalUniversity,Australia) ZoëChafe(UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,USA) IanFairlie(Int lconsultantonradia[onintheenvironment,uk) PatrickKinney(ColumbiaUniversity,USA) TordKjellstrom(UmeaUniversity,Sweden) DeniseMauzerall(PrincetonUniversity,UnitedStates) ThomasMcKone(LawrenceBerkeleyNa[onalLaboratory,USA) AnthonyMcMichael(AustralianNa[onalUniversity,Australia) MycleSchneider(Int lconsultantonenergyandnuclearpolicy,france) PaulWilkinson(LondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine,UK) Funding:Interna[onalIns[tuteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA) 27
28 Avoiding the Unmanageable Mi[ga[onand Adapta[on Managing the Unavoidable 28
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