What future for the different electricity sources?

Transcription

1 What future for the different electricity sources? SFEN Atoms for the Future 2013 Yves Giraud, Generation Economics & Strategy Director EDF Paris, 22 nd October

2 Once upon a time, Europe had a dream. 2

3 Back to Coal! 3

4 Coal, the king of the ring First in the world Highly standardized /kw Flexible Fuel easy to extract and transport CCS? 40% of the world electricity generation 4

5 Gas, a (fallen) sprinter Easy, fast and cheap (900 /kw) Clean compared to coal Today CCGT in Europe are closing because of low coal and CO2 prices 22% of the world electricity generation 5

6 Low carbon energy Nuclear 13% 33% of the world electricity generation Hydro 16% other renwables 4% 6

7 Energy efficiency, a solution to reduce electricity demand Clean High costs (1000 to 4000 /KW) Bad return on investment 7

8 Renewables, like a dream Advanced technologies Easy to implement Clean? Costs depending on technologies (1000 /kw to 4000 /kw) Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile In the right place at the right time 8

9 Nuclear nightmare? March 2011 Fukushima 9

10 Time for a nuclear dream! Low carbon Competitive (over the long term) Good for employment Stable price Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en Sicile Difficult, long and expensive (> 4000 /MW) Long construction time Complex (political, legal and safety) 10

11 Lots of countries see a future for nuclear Existing reactors and new build projects New build projects/programmes Exsiting reactors with no new build projects Nuclear exit or phase out 11

12 Opinion on nuclear is not that bad Question: what is your opinion of the use of nuclear energy in your country? In Favorable favour Against Opposé Hésitant Unsure Sans No opinion Source: CSA; questionnaire realised between 26/11/12 and 18/12/12 12

13 The benefits of nuclear are well known Affordable electricity Security of supply, helping the trade balance Low carbon electricity generation A large number of job opportunities in high performing industries Residential electricity prices ( /MWh) in H2 2012* 228/MWh European average of 17 Eurozone countries outside of France France UK Belgium Spain Italy Germany CO 2 emissions (gco 2 /kwh) in 2010** Average OECD-Europe *Source: Eurostat H **Source: IEA Facts France Belgium Spain Italy UK Germany Poland 13

14 Nuclear remains a competitive technology WIND, SOLAR PV NEW BUILD COAL, GAS AND NUCLEAR EXISTING NUCLEAR 70 à 100 /MWh /MWh + additional system costs ~55 /MWh Cour des Comptes 38 /MWh 2012 Tariffs Part of base load generation Existing Nuclear New SC Coal, gas and NNB Renewables 14

15 Existing: achieve life extension USA : 70 of 104 reactors have already obtained the license for 60 years The «Grand carénage» in France An opportunity for our industry An industrial, human and financial challenge 15

16 Belgium: a new mechanism for securing Tihange 1 nuclear life extension? Market price? Fixed price State Margin Operator 70% of revenues 30% of revenues Fair margin /MWh Life extension costs Under negotiation Generation costs 41.8* Bill adopted by the Government Tihange NPP Belgium Government is considering setting a fixed price* for electricity generated from Tihange 1 Any revenues above this price will be split between the State and the operator by 70% and 30%, respectively * 41.8/MWh as announced in L Echo 16

17 New Build: brighter times ahead for nuclear! 17

18 The challenge of the investment cost /kwg Wind, PV 900 MW 1300 MW 1500 MW Nuclear? EPR

19 Nuclear development is being driven by non-oecd countries (mainly Asia) *Note: New Policies Scenario. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook

20 European industry must continue its nuclear history both for international and renewal of existing OLKILUOTO 3 (Areva) FLAMANVILLE 3 EPR feedback experience Optimisation POLAND 1 & 2? Extended range of models TAISHAN 1 & 2 HINKLEY POINT? ARABIE SAOUDITE HINKLEY POINT 3 & 4? SAUDI ARABIA? 20

21 UK : Hinkley Point C, as it will be in the future 21

22 The CFD is a long term contract providing stability to both customers and investors 92,5 /MWh 22

23 Poland: a robust process is underway which in a sense can be compared to the commitment of UK A strong political commitment to the polish nuclear programme: 2011: Nuclear Package voted almost unanimously (407 for vs. 2 against) by the Parliament 2012: PGE announces a package of Integrated Proceedings for the first nuclear project Spring 2013: preliminary dialogue with interested bidders End-2013: finalisation of Polish Nuclear Programme : target commissioning date for 6,000MW EDF and its partner Areva have announced their intention to participate in the Polish NNB programme 23

24 Towards a new market design Difficulties to launch nuclear projects in a deregulated market. as for any other technologies Let s invent a new market design for nuclear 24

25 Let s start a new dream with nuclear Nuclear will play an important role Life extension must be achieved A vital need for NNB projects 25