Transportation and Emission Trading A CGE Analysis for the EU 15. Jan Abrell EE²
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1 Transportation and Emission Trading A CGE Analysis for the EU 15 Jan Abrell EE² Dresden University of Technology Chair of Energy Economics and Public Sector Management Infraday , Berlin -1-
2 Agenda Overview Model Results Conclusion Literature -2-
3 Transportation and Emissions Sources: EEA (2003); EEA (2006) -3-
4 Hybrid Regulation under the EU ETS European Emission Trading System (EU ETS) regulates energy and energy intensive industries as well as refineries Transportation is subject of national environmental policies Efficient environmental regulation requires equal marginal abatement costs in each sector To efficiently regulate the transportation sector the future emission permit price must be known Thus, hybrid regulation induces economic inefficiency due to informational requirements and lobbying -4-
5 Transport and Emission Trading European Commission proposed to include aviation in EU ETS from 2011 onwards Aircraft operators have to hold emission permits (downstream emission trading) Road transportation can be included in either an up- or midstream manner In mid-stream emission trading, producers of cars have to hold emission permits In up-stream emission trading, the producers and importers of gasoline have to hold emission permits How to address emissions from ships? -5-
6 Topic Use a static multi-region CGE model of the EU 15 to answer the question: What are the welfare effects of including road, water, and air transportation in the EU ETS? -6-
7 Agenda Overview Model Results Conclusion Literature -7-
8 Static multi-region CGE model Model Dimensions Regions: All EU15 countries and rest of the world Sectors: Macro good (industries and services) (MAC) Agriculture (AGR) Energy intensive industries (EINT) Refined oil products (P_C) Electricity (ELY) Fossil Fuels: Coal (COA), natural gas (GAS), crude oil (OIL) Transportation: Air (ATP), water (WTP), other (road/rail) (OTP) Motor vehicles, ships, and aircrafts (CAR) -8-
9 Data and Implementation Use of GTAP 6 database (base year: 2001) International trade margins are incoporated Household s private transportation is derived by using the Household Budget Survey of 1999 Emissions are calibrated using physical fuel energy flows Emissions from international transportation are assigned to region sectors belong to Model implementation in GAMS/MPSGE -9-
10 Agenda Overview Model Results Conclusion Literature -10-
11 Scenarios - Hybrid Regulation Name SECTORAL DOMESTIC EUROPEAN EU ETS TAX EU ETS DOM Description Sectoral carbon constraints: different CO 2 taxes across sectors and regions. Road transportation has a uniform tax rate. ROW: regional emission trading system All regions implement regional emission trading scheme All sectors in European regions trade allowances across Europe. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, and refineries trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors are regulated by sectoral taxes; uniform tax for road transportation. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, and refineries trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors regionally trade allowances. ROW: regional emission trading system -11-
12 Emission Reduction Requirements Implement in each scenario effective emission reduction requirement in 2001 under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement Effective Target 2001 (%) Effective Target 2001 (%) Austria 24.3 Italy 15.0 Belgium 12.0 Luxembourg 11.4 Denmark 22.9 Netherlands 15.4 Finland 10.2 Portugal 12.8 France 5.5 Spain 17.1 Germany 8.2 Sweden -9.7 Greece 2.3 UK 8.5 Ireland 22.6 Rest of the World 5 Source: Own calculations based on EEA (2004); only -12- energy CO 2 emissions are taken into account
13 Results Hybrid Regulation Hicksian Equivalent Variation of EU 15 welfare compared to bechmark of no carbon regulation (%) DOMESTIC; EUROPEAN; EU_ETS_DOM; SECTORAL; EU_ETS_TAX;
14 Scenarios Transportation under Emission Trading Name EU ETS TAX R EU ETS TAX RA EU ETS TAX RAW EU ETS DOM R EU ETS DOM RA EU ETS DOM RAW Description Electricity, energy intensive industries, refineries, and road transportation trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors are regulated by sectoral taxes; uniform tax for road transportation. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, refineries, road, and air transportation trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors are regulated by sectoral taxes; uniform tax for road transportation. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, refineries, road, air, and water transportation trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors are regulated by sectoral taxes; uniform tax for road transportation. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, refineries and road transportation trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors regionally trade allowances. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, refineries, road, and air transportation trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors regionally trade allowances. ROW: regional emission trading system Electricity, energy intensive industries, refineries, road, air, and water transportation trade allowances across Europe. Remaining sectors regionally trade allowances. ROW: regional emission trading system -14-
15 Results Sectoral Carbon Taxes Hicksian Equivalent Variation of EU 15 welfare compared to SECTORAL scenario (%) EU_ETS_TAX_R; 0.41 EU_ETS_TAX_RA; 0.43 EU_ETS_TAX_RAW; EU_ETS_TAX;
16 Results Domestic Emission Trading Hicksian Equivalent Variation of EU 15 welfare compared to DOMESTIC scenario (%) EU_ETS_DOM_R; 0.02 EU_ETS_DOM_RA; 0.02 EU_ETS_DOM_RAW; EU_ETS_DOM;
17 Agenda Overview Model Results Conclusion Literature -17-
18 Conclusion Including road transportation in the EU ETS provides high welfare gains Including air transportation also provides welfare gains Environmental policy for maritime shipping has an great impact on international trade patterns via transportation margins Caveat: Modeling of EU 15 trade with the rest of the world is treated very aggregated Abatement burden not differentiated across sectors -18-
19 Agenda Overview Model Results Conclusion Literature -19-
20 Selected References Babiker, M., J. Reilly, and L. Viguier (2004): Is international Emission Trading always beneficial? Energy Journal 25(2), Böhringer, C. (2001): Industry-level Emission trading between Power Producers in the EU. Applied Economics 34(4), Böhringer, C., T. Hoffmann, and C. Manrique-de-Lara-Penate (2006): The efficiency Cost of separating Carbon Markets under the EU Emission Trading Scheme: A quantitative Assessment for Germany. Energy Economics 28, Choumert F., S. Paltsev, and J. Reilly (2006): Improving the Refinig Sector in EPPA. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Technical Note 9. European Environment Agency (2003): Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends and Projections in the Europe Environmental Issue Report 36/2003. Denmark. European Environment Agency (2004): Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report Technical Report 2/2004. Denmark. EUROSTAT (1999): Household Budget Survey of Luxembourg. EUROSTAT (2001): Annual Energy Statistics. Luxembourg Paltsev, S., H. Jacoby, J. Reilly, and L. Viguier (2004): Modeling the Transport Sector: The Role of Existing Fuel Taxes in Climate Policy. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Report 117. Paltsev, S., L. Viguie, J. Reilly, and K.H. Tay (2004): Disaggregating Household in the MIT EPPA Model. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Technical Report 5. Schäfer, A., and H. Jacoby (2005): Technological Detail in a multisector CGE Model: Transport under Climate Change. Energy Economics 27,
21 Agenda Overview Model Results Conclusion Literature Appendix: Model Structure -21-
22 Production Structure Except Transportation and Extraction Domestic Output Exports 2 0 VAE σ VAE CAR MAC EINT AGR OIL TRN σ TRN σ E ENE VA σ VA σ DM OTP ATP WTP σ FF Fossil ELY CAP LAB RES Domestic Imported σ MM AUT ROW COA Liquid σ LQD 0 GAS P_C CO 2 GAS -22-
23 Production Structure Transportation Services Domestic Output Exports σ OUT 0 σ VAE VAE Transport Equipment Materials σ caga 0 CAR P_C σ E ENE VA WTP OTP ATP EINT AGR OIL σ VA σ FF ELY K L COA GAS -23-
24 Production Structure Extractive Industries (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Coal) Domestic Output Exports σ OUT σ EXT Materials/ VA RES 0 MAC OTP VA σ VA K L -24-
25 Utility Structure C σ HTOP σ CE σ HTRN σ HE σ C σ PUR σ OWN COA ELY GAS P_C MAC EINT AGR OTP ATP WTP P_C σ OTC CAR MAC -25-
26 Modeling of International Trade Margins Import of good j from region s 0 PX(j,s) PT( atp ) PT( wtp ) PT( otp ) PX( atp,r) PX( wtp,r) PX( otp,r) -26-
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