LCLUC AND WEF NEXUS IN THE MEKONG RIVER BASIN

Transcription

1 LCLUC AND WEF NEXUS IN THE MEKONG RIVER BASIN Jiaguo Qi Michigan State University

2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE Water-Energy-Food Systems and Challenges Water-Energy-Food Nexus Framework Approaches and Activities Preliminary Results Future Plan

3 WEF NEXUS CHALLENGES AND ISSUES

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5 There are currently 11 hydropower dams on the main stem of the Lower Mekong and 77 dams in the entire Mekong Basin, with more being planned or under construction DAM MEKON G

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7 Tonle Sap Lake Lin & Qi, 2017, ERL, 158: 24-32

8 Pak Mun Dam

9 LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN ISSUES COMPETITION FOR DIFFERENT WATER USES HYDROPOWER DAMS (MORE THAN 100 DAMS) IRRIGATION FOR CROPS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON HYDROLOGY, WETLANDS, AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND RURAL COMMUNITIES! HOW COULD ONE ADDRESS THE COMPLEX ISSUES OF THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD SYSTEMS? WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS

10 A WEF NEXUS FRAMEWORK

11 Land Land as the Nexus of WEF Systems Note: We are looking at the NEXUS, not individual component Based on UNECE 2016 & GLP

12 APPROACH AND ACTIVITIES

13 NASA IDS PROJECT IN MEKONG UNDERSTANDING HUMAN AND CLIMATE IMPACTS ON WE TLAND ECOSYSTEMS IN THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER B ASIN PI: Jiaguo Qi US Co Dan Kramer, David Hyndman, Jinhua Zhao, Joseph Messina, Peilei Fan, William McConnell and Yadu Nathan Torbick and William Venkataramana Sridhar Int l Partners: Sura Pattanakiat,Mahidol University, Thailand. Apisom Intralawan,Mae Fah Laung University, Thailand. Charlie Navanugraha,Nakhon Phanom University, Thailand. Le Duc Trung, Vietnam National Mekong Committee, Vietnam, Pham Tuan Phan,Mekong River Commission, Laos. Vu Ngoc Ut,Can Tho University, Vietnam. Siam Lawawirojwong,GeoInformatics and Space Technology Development Agency, Thailand. Tep Makathy,Cambodian Institute for Urban Studies, Cambodia. Zaw Naing, Mandalay Technologies, Myanmar. Aiko Endo, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan. Anik Bhaduri, Sustainable Water Future Programme, Australia. Thongchai Suwonsichon, Kasetsart University, Thailand.

14 W. McConnell D. Kramer D. Hydnman P. Fan Y. Pokhrel J. Zhao J. Messina J. Qi W. Salas V. Sridhar N. Torbick T. Makathy P. Varnakovida A. Intralawan S. Pattanakiat C. Navanugraha Ho Long Phi Pham Tuan Phan Le Duc Trung Vu Ngoc Ut Lisa Robelo Aiko Endo Claudia Pahl-Wostl Anik Bhaduri

15 SO, OUR PROJECT GOALS To improve our understanding of how large-scale human activities (dam infrastructure and associated irrigation) cumulatively affect ecological processes in wetland ecosystems, and to provide a scientific basis for the improved operation of such infrastructure to help mitigate the expected effects of climate change. IDS Element 2: Ecology at Land/Water Interfaces-Human and Environmental Pressures

16 Climate Change Spatio-temporal variability in precipitation & temperature Drivers of Ecosystems Change (IDS and LCLUC Task 1) Land Use/Cover Change Agricultural intensification, irrigation & land use change IDS: Large-scale, recent past LCLUC: Fine-scale, long time series Hydroelectric Dam Construction Site characteristics, water storage and regulation of flows IDS: Location and regulation LCLUC: Surrounding LCLUC Demographic Dynamics Population size, household structure, livelihood systems IDS: Ecosystem services trade-offs LCLUC: Social motivation, consequences and adaptation strategies Approach IDS Focus Hydrological Processes (IDS Task 2) Spatio-temporal changes in river flow, floodplain inundation dynamics, groundwater, and reservoir storage Impacts on Lake and Wetland Ecosystems (IDS Task 3) Lake Phenology and Services Lake phenology, water volume, quality and fish production Wetland Ecology and Processes Wetland vegetation, inundation, nutrient retention and greenhouse gas emissions IDS: Basin scale, coarse resolution LCLUC: Small watershed scale, fine resolution Trade-offs and Governance Options (IDS Task 4) Socio-ecological and socio-economic analyses of ecosystem services provided by coupled dams, irrigated agriculture, wetlands, and lakes and their trade-offs across space and time Basin wide water strategies IDS: Basin-wide assessment with case studies LCLUC: Selected rural communities Ecological Functions and Services (LCLUC Task 2) LCLUC Focus Social Impacts and Responses(LCLUC Task 3) Social Drivers of LCLUC Local and use attributes and socioeconomic drivers of land use changes Societal Responses Typology of adaptation and mitigation Trade-offs and Tipping Points Ecosystem services and human wellbeing across space and time Synthesis and Strategies Synthesis scenarios, planning, adaptation and future development strategies Wetland Dynamics Wetland types, structure, composition, area expansion/shrinking, and rate of change. Ecosystem Functions Hydroperiod, phenology, thermal regulation and greenhouse gas emissions Ecosystem Services Cropping potentials, biomass, NPP, and plant biodiversity

17 PRELIMINARY RESULTS

18 Pokhrel et al. (2018) DAMS IN THE MEKONG Pokhrel et al. 2012, 2015 Existing dams do not have significant impact on the flow in the mainstream Impacts on tributaries could be significant Future dams are likely to largely affect the mainstream flow

19 Developed, calibrated and tested an ensemble modeling approach to quantitatively link human activities (dams, irrigation and water withdraw etc.) to hydrological processes. Figures: Comparison of modeled and observed flow rates and inundation.

20 Used MODIS and Landsat time series to detect construction and operation dates, information that has implications to water resources in the basin.

21 Mapping and linking agricultural intensification (rice intensity) to changes in water resources resulting from dam construction and operation management. Torbick et al (2018)

22 FUTURE PLAN Focus on societal impacts and understanding of responses

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24 We will conduct field surveys to assess wetland vulnerability to agriculture conversion resulting from reduced hydroperiod (damming impacts).

25 We will assess trade-offs and synergies among rice, electricity and fish.

26 How will all these affect the rural, telecoupled communities, across the Mekong Basin with a focus on trade-offs, synergies and pay for ecosystem services.

27 This summer.. An international meeting on WEF NEXUS, LAND USE AND AGRICULTURE IN ASIA AUGUST 13-17, 2018 HOSTED BY NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF LAOS VIENTIANE, LAOS

28 Thank You! Salamat!