Supporting sustainable development of Prague region through advanced modeling tool for air quality (SUDPLAN)

Transcription

1 Supporting sustainable development of Prague region through advanced modeling tool for air quality (SUDPLAN) Vladislav Bízek, Charles University in Prague Jan Mertl, Czech Environment Information Agency

2 Introduction This presentation is based on the results of the Czech part of FP7 SUDPLAN (Sustainable Urban Development Planner for climate change adaptation) project implemented by international consortium led by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

3 SUDPLAN tool Web-based planning, prediction and training tool to support decisions in long term urban planning

4 PM 10 major environmental issue in the CR

5 Annual average concentrations of PM 10 in regional capitols (station with the highest value in 2011; mg/m 3 ) Ostrava 49.4 Zlín 44.9 Brno 39.1 Ústí nad Labem 36.2 Praha 35.9 Olomouc 31.6 Hradec Králové 30.9 Plzeň 30.4 Pardubice 30.1 České Budějovice 27.6 Liberec 28.8 Karlovy Vary 26.7 Jihlava 25.7

6 Secondary particles often neglected issue

7 Problems in air pollution modeling Only simple Gaussian dispersion models are being used in the CR which do not allow calculation of secondary pollutants (PM, ozone) Long-term air quality taking into account climate change issues are not available.

8 Solution = SUDPLAN modeling tool Allows calculation of secondary pollutants Takes into account global and regional climate scenarios Takes into account both regional and local emissions Enables the development of long-term air quality projections as well as scenario assessment

9 The SUDPLAN model system consists of several related models; its basic scheme is shown in figure 1. SUDPLAN air quality modeling system Global climate model Regional climate model Regional air quality model Local air quality model Concentration field Climate scenario Regional emissions Local emissions Figure 1: Basic scheme of the SUDPLAN model system

10 Input data REZZO emissions o REZZO 1 and 2 point sources o REZZO 3 gridded emissions 5x5 km o REZZO 4 gridded emissions 0,5x0,5 km Air quality monitoring data from AIM stations used for model evaluation and calibration Transportation intensities GAINS emission projections

11 Main tasks of the pilot Air quality projections for the years 2020 and 2030 Air quality socio-economic scenarios Publication and dissemination of results, rising stakeholders involvement Where? City of Prague and surroundings, area 100x100 kilometers

12 Air quality projection till 2030 PM 10 (present emissions from the national database, emission projections from GAINS model)

13 2D and 3D visualization of NO 2 concentrations in 2010

14 Scenario assessment typical cases Significant change in the operation of a large combustion plant Completion of the ring road by-pass of Prague Suburbanization of Prague outskirts

15 Large coal fired power station doubled thermal input NO 2 SO 2 PM 10

16 Impact of the completion of Prague ring road bypass

17 Impact of two hypothetical satellite settlements NO 2 ozone

18 Potential Users Municipality of Prague Institute for Regional Development Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Ministry of the Environment Local stakeholders involved in transportation infrastructure development Consultants

19 Conclusions Air quality of Prague agglomeration will improve till 2030 Transportation measures can positively affect air quality, mainly in the city center Large point sources of air pollution influence air quality only locally Regional/national emissions are the main factor influencing air quality in Prague Road transportation will remain the main factor of air quality of the region

20 Further information

21 Thanks for your attention! Vladislav Bízek, Environment Centre, Charles University in Prague, Jose Martiho 2, Prague 6, Czech Republic Phone: Jan Mertl, CENIA, Czech Environmental Information Agency, Vrsovicka 65, Prague 10, Czech Republic Phone: