Water availability under global change

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts in the Czech-German Elbe River Basin Water availability under global change S. Kaden M. Kaltofen, M. Hentschel, M. Redetzky H. Koch, K. Mazur O. Dietrich, S. Schweigert WASY GmbH DHI Group BTU Cottbus ZALF NOVEMBER 2007, Ústí nad Labem, Czech Republic, Jan Evangelista Purkyně University

2 Contents 1 Methodological background 2 WBalMo Elbe 3 Results for the Czech part of the Elbe river basin 4 Results for the German part of the Elbe river basin 5 Conclusions

3 Methodological background Global Change sub project III main goals Frame of Project II: Development Regionalisation of Global Change Project I: Integration und -coordination Management level Evaluation Project III: Surface Water Availability Run off regulation Management Ecohydrological strategies Socioeconomic / policy options to solve arising Indicators Indicators problems Socio-economic of water and availability? ecological consequences Cost-efficiency analysis of those strategies? Ecohydrological Indicators Socioeconomic Indicators Multi-criteria analysis Project V: Cross conflict field scenario analysis Development of water Project IV: avilability Surface under Water conditions Quality of global change (climate and socio-economics)? Nutrient entry Managementoptions Impactanalysis Project advisory board Regional actors, decision bodies

4 Methodological background Water yield Stochastic character + scenarios of change Climate Land-use Water use Water demand Scenarios of future development Water management measures Management options past future

5 Methodological background X13 X4 Regionalization of global change Future climate (STAR) X1 X15 Land use and regional water balance Hydrological cycle and crop yields (SWIM) Land use (LAND USE SCANNER) Y5 Y3 X2 X3 Water management (WBALMO) Inflow Evaporation Wetlands Z5 Nutrient load (MONERIS) Point source: Industry Point source: Sewage plant Diffuse source: Sealed surfaces Diffuse source: Erosion Development of agricultural sector (RAUMIS) Economics and demography (REGE) Development of energy sector (KASIM) Y4 Y8 Y1 Y2 Y7 Z1 Water use Wetlands (MODAM) Households /business (HAUSHALT WASSER) Industry (INDUSTRIE WASSER) Energy / Mining Z4 Z3 Z2 Z1 Water suppliers Industry Mining Power plants Irrigation Minimal flow for conservation Diffuse source: Atmospheric Deposition Diffuse source: Drainage Diffuse source: Surface denudation Diffuse source: Groundwater Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands Nutrient concentr. Phytoplankton Oxygen Development of water technologies Y6 (KASIM) Agriculture / Irrigation Transport on inland waterways Transport on inland waterways Z7 Z9 Water quality (QSim) Z6 Z8

6 Methodological background Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Deterministic P-Q-Model Q P, PET Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events)

7 Methodological background Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Deterministic P-Q-Model Stochastic generated climate series Q P, PET Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Balancing water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events) e.g. reliability of water supply or minimum flow

8 Methodological background Stochastic Simulation of Meteorological and Hydrological Processes Deterministic P-Q-Model Stochastic generated climate series Q P, PET SWIM STAR II WBalMo Deterministic Simulation of Water Use Management Rules, Ranking Rules Balancing water yield and water demand within socio-economic context Recording and Statistical Analysis of Systems States (Events) e.g. reliability of water supply or minimum flow

9 Methodological background

10 WBalMo Elbe Water yield - is an input from precipitation-runoffmodel SWIM: for each simulation sub catchment at its end profile - can be an output from WBalMo: at each balance profile at each step of balancing process

11 WBalMo Elbe Modular structure - 22 modules: central module is Elbeschlauch (Elbe main river) - each module can be used stand-alone

12 WBalMo Elbe WBalMo BP catchment reservoir dyn. elements water user wetlands Elbe Main River Eger (CR) Lower Vltava (CR) Upper Vltava (CR) Berounka (CR) Upper&Middle Elbe(CR) Spree-Schwarze Elster x Spreewald x Mulde Saale Bode Weiße Elster Drömling x Havel x Rhin Berlin x Nuthe x Buckau x Plane x Gr. Havelländ. channel Dosse-Jäglitz x Lower Elbe x total

13 WBalMo Elbe Wetlands - Modeling of water balance in wetlands - 35 wetlands integrated into WBalMo Elbe

14 WBalMo Elbe Basis for Data and Information of the Czech part of WBalMo Elbe Agreement of co-operation between GLOWA-ELBE II and the Czech River Basin Authorities (Vltava, Labe and Ohre) Data and information delivered: reservoirs to be included in the modules (name, location, controllable storage, active storage, water surface area, etc.) => reservoirs with capacity equal or larger than 1 mill. m 3 water users, i.e. withdrawals and discharges (name, location, reference number of permit, monthly or yearly values for the last years, etc.) => quantity equal or larger than 0.01 m 3 /s management of water resources facilities - e.g. water transfers between river reaches or reservoirs (name, location of intake and of orifice, capacity, etc.)

15 A u ma Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Lower Elbe Dosse- Jäglitz DE PL Discharge profiles 1. Vltava 2. Labe Drömling Havel Berlin Bode Buckau Nuthe Plane Spree- Schwarze Elster Selected water uses 1. drinking water for the city of Prague Saale Weiße Elster Elbe Main River Mulde Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Filling of reservoirs 1. Rimov 2. Sous Berounka CR DE 1 Lower Vltava CR 1 CZ Upper Vltava CR Water use scenarios: 1 Water permit data 2 Date of year 2003 AT

16 Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Results - effects of climate change and of using different user data on managed streamflows Streamflow [m 3 /s] Labska Decin #Y Labska #Y Usti nad Labem #Y Les MQ [m 3 #Y #Y /s] Kralovstvi #Y Usti Litomerice nad Labem Les Year 2010, Water permit data #Y Melnik #Y Kralovstvi #Y Litomerice #Y Year 2010, data of 2003 Vranany Melnik Nymburk Nemcice Year 2050, Water permit data #Y #Y #Y #Y Vranany Brandys Year 2050, data of 2003 Nymburk Nemcice #Y nad #Y Labem Brandys #Y Vrane #Y nad Labem Pardubice #Y Vrane Vyssi Brod Les Kralovstvi Nemcice Ceske Budejovice Pardubice Decin #Y #Y Korensko Ceske Budejovice #Y Ceske Budejovice #Y Nymburk Korensko Vyssi Brod #Y #Y Brandys nad Labem Korensko Melnik #Y #Y #Y Pardubice Vrane Litomerice Labska #Y MQ [m 3 /s] Year 2010, water permit data Year 2010, data of 2003 Year 2050, water permit data Year 2050, data of 2003 Usti nad Labem Vranany Decin Streamflow [m 3 /s] Vyssi Brod #Y

17 Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Results - safety for drinking water provision for the city of Prague Drinking water for the city of Prague is provided by three sources: Withdrawal directly from the #Y river 90 Vltava in Prague, Data of 2003 (demand= 3.57 m 80 /s) 2. Transfer from the area between Year the cities of Sojovice and Year Data of 2003 Water permit data Karany (bank (demand= filtration), m 3 /s) 2. (demand= m 50 /s) Year 2010 Year Transfer 40 from reservoir Year Year 2050 Svihov/Zelivka Month Talsperre #Y Pegel Ki Me Safety of supply [%]

18 Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Water users safety of supply [%] and related water deficits [mill. m 3 /a] for the year 2050, probability of exceedance 1 % (variant 2003 ) Safety of supply [%] Cr_reservoirs_wbalmo.shp X.XXX = Deficit [hm3/a] Res_prisecn_flaje.shp Reservoir Cr_rivers_wbalmo.shp River Riv_prisecn_flaje.shp

19 Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Water users safety of supply [%] and related water deficits [mill. m 3 /a] for the year 2050, probability of exceedance 1 % (variant Water Permits ) Safety of supply [%] Cr_reservoirs_wbalmo.shp X.XXX = Deficit [hm3/a] Res_prisecn_flaje.shp Reservoir Cr_rivers_wbalmo.shp River Riv_prisecn_flaje.shp

20 Filling of reservoir [%] Results - effects of climate change and of using different user data on filling of reservoirs Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Filling of reservoir [%] Year 2010 (water demand= 0,677 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % Year 2010 (water demand= 1,480 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % Month Year 2050 (water demand= 0,677 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % #Y Rimov Month Year 2050 (water demand= 1,480 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % Talsperre #Y Pegel Kilom Meters

21 Filling of reservoir [%] Results - effects of climate change and of using different user data on filling of reservoirs Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Filling of reservoir [%] #Y Mean values for years Sous Year 2010 (water demand= 0,320 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % 50 Probability of exceedance 80 % 40 Probability of exceedance 99 % Year 2010 (water demand= 0,203 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % Year 2050 (water demand= 0,203 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % Month Year 2050 (water demand= 0,320 m 3 /s) Probability of exceedance 50 % Probability of exceedance 80 % Probability of exceedance 99 % Month Mean values for years Talsperre #Y Pegel Kilom Meters

22 Results for Czech part of Elbe basin Discussion Natural (unmanaged) discharges have not proved satisfactory at all locations in the Czech part Results (especially for small catchments) should be treated with caution due to the low number of climate stations used in the climate regionalization (Czech Republic compared to Germany) possible inaccuracy in the simulated natural discharges Minimum discharges can be sustained generally (exception: profile Soutice, water permit data) Water deficits can occur for a variety of user groups (drinking water supply from reservoirs, industry, agriculture) Applying different user data for same time interval gives lower safety of supply for water permit data than for data of 2003 Presumed climate change has much more severe effects on water availability than user data in general The WBalMo sub-models can be used for investigations in the separate river basin districts or the Czech part of the Elbe river basin as a whole

23 A u ma Results for German part of Elbe basin 9 Drömling Lower Elbe 8 Bode 1 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Weiße Elster Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 2 Elbe Main River 3 Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) CZ Upper Vltava CR catchment Scenario SQ: Water DE demand as planned by authorities + climate change AT Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster

24 Results for German part of Elbe basin 800 Elbe profil: planning horizon discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau MQ (500 a / 2010) MNQ (500 a / 2010) MQ (observed ) MNQ (observed ) Wehr Geesthacht

25 Results for German part of Elbe basin 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ

26 Results for German part of Elbe basin 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ QGlW

27 Results for German part of Elbe basin 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ Aug(2010) T = 5 a Aug(2010) T = 100 a QGlW

28 Results for German part of Elbe basin 800 August: planning horizones 2010 and discharge in m³/s Grenze D/CR Dresden Torgau Aken Barby Magdeburg Wittenberge Neu Darchau Wehr Geesthacht Aug(2010)-MQ Aug(2010) T = 5 a Aug(2010) T = 100 a Aug(2035)-MQ Aug(2035) T = 5 a Aug(2035) T = 100 a QGlW

29 A u ma Results for German part of Elbe basin 9 Drömling Lower Elbe 8 Bode 1 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 Elbe Main River 3 Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

30 Results for German part of Elbe basin discharge Spree,Mühlendamm Power plant Berlin-Mitte: August planning horizon 2010 water availability in August STATUS QUO SCENARIO amount [m³/s] MQ-Aug (2010) demand T= 5 a T= 20 a T= 100 a

31 A u ma Results for German part of Elbe basin 9 Drömling Lower Elbe 8 Bode 1 Saale Spree- Schwarze Elster Dosse- Jäglitz Havel Buckau Nuthe Plane 4 Weiße Elster 2 Elbe Main River 3 Mulde Berlin 3 DE 2 Berounka CR 1 PL Ohre Lower Labe CR Upper / Middle Labe CR Lower Vltava CR Discharge profiles 1. Border Czechia/ Germany 2. Dresden 3. Torgau 4. Aken 5. Barby 6. Magdeburg 7. Wittenberge 8. Neu Darchau 9. Wehr Geesthacht Selected water uses 1. Waterworks Wienrode 2. Powerplant Lippendorf 3. Powerplant Berlin-Mitte 4. Chemical company DOW Olefinverbund GmbH (plant Schkopau) DE CZ Upper Vltava CR Evaporation from surface water bodies in Weiße Elster catchment AT

32 Results for German part of Elbe basin Evaporation Weiße Elster in August evaporation [m³/s] T = 5 a T = 20 a T = 100 a

33 Results for German part of Elbe basin Wetlands - Change of water withdrawel from period 1 to 10 (median, relating to the wetland area)

34 Conclusions Conclusions - Water use conflicts exist for extreme drought situations already now - Water use conflicts increase with climate change - Water shortages from withdrawals occur above all in tributaries to Elbe river - In the main Elbe river water use conflict is due to minimum discharges for different purposes (as navigation)

35 Conclusions Indicators for subbasin-wide assessment of water resources 1. Intensity of water use conflict: relative fullfillment of demand (August 2010) in conditions of moderate water scarcity (return interval 5 years) 2. Degree of instability of water supply: relative fullfillment of demand in conditions of moderate water scarcity (August 2010) is compared to that of serious water scarcity (return interval 20 years) by their quotient..

36 Conclusions sub basin/ modul Kind of wat er use fishery industry power agric. drink.w. min. Q navigation hydropower locks Elbe main Saale Bode Weiße Elster Mulde Spree/SE Spreewald Berlin Havel Nuthe Plane Buckau Rhin Dosse-Jäglitz GHHK Lower Elbe Drömling Sum Sum 0 no conflict 1 water use conflict or instability of water supply 2 water use conflict and instability of water supply

37 Conclusions Outlook - For all water users vulnerability for extreme drought situations, for climate and socioeconomic changes will be analyzed, - For reservoirs and dams failure in water supply will be analyzed, - For most affected water uses water management options will be developed

38 Climate Change Impacts in the Czech-German Elbe River Basin Thank you!

39 Conclusions Indicators for subbasin-wide assessment of water resources 1. Intensity of water use conflict: relative fullfillment of demand (August 2010) in conditions of moderate water scarcity (return interval 5 years) 2. Degree of instability of water supply: relative fullfillment of demand in conditions of moderate water scarcity (August 2010) is compared to that of serious water scarcity (return interval 20 years) by their quotient 3. Impact of change of framework conditions over time within one scenario of development (i. e. climate): relative fullfillment of demand in conditions of moderate water scarcity from August 2010 is compared to that of August 2050 by their quotient 4. Impact of of framework conditions between scenarios of development (i. e. land use): relative fullfillment of demand in conditions of moderate water scarcity from one scenario (August 2010) is compared to that of another scenario by their quotient from which scenarios: indicators 1-3: Globalisation without environmental orientation indicator 4: comparing Globalisation without environmental orientation to Globalisation with environmental orientation

40 Conclusions sub basin/ modul Kind of wat er use fishery industry power agric. drink.w. min. Q navigation hydropower locks Elbe main Saale Bode Weiße Elster Mulde Spree/SE Spreewald Berlin Havel Nuthe Plane Buckau Rhin Dosse-Jäglitz GHHK Lower Elbe Drömling Sum Sum 0 no conflict 1 water use conflict or instability of water supply 2 water use conflict and instability of water supply

41 Conclusions sub basin/ modul Kind of water use fishery industry power agric. drink.w. min. Q navigation hydropower locks Elbe main Saale Bode Weiße Elster Mulde Spree/SE Spreewald Berlin Havel Nuthe Plane Buckau Rhin Dosse-Jäglitz GHHK Lower Elbe Drömling Sum no conflict 1 water use conflict or its significant worsening change of framework conditions over time within one scenario 2 water use conflict and its significant worsening change of framework conditions over time within one scenario Sum