Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Transcription

1 National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Great Smoky Mountains National Park Acid Deposition Resource Protection Goal at Great Smoky Mountains National Park EPA Region 4 Grants/Planning Meeting, Atlanta, GA 7 June 2017 Jim Renfro, Air Resource Specialist Matt Kulp, Supervisory Fishery Biologist Resource Management & Science Division 1

2 Outline Improving Air Quality (O 3, PM 2.5, Regional Haze, Acid Deposition ) Stream Chemistry and Biological Effects Impairment due to Low Stream ph from Acid Deposition Critical Loads Modeling & Acid Deposition Resource Protection Goal Next Steps continued collaboration to share data 2

3 Topics of Discussion Background: Air & water quality monitoring and research at the Park has documented that atmospheric deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) has acidified sensitive aquatic & terrestrial resources with limited recovery (GRSM is a Class I Area under the Clean Air Act). The Park has 12 streams (~42 miles) listed in 2006 by TN as impaired under Section 303(d) of the EPA Clean Water Act (CWA) due to low stream ph (<6.0) from acid deposition. Regulatory tools are limited under the CWA for impaired streams from atmospheric deposition (as non-point regional sources (you can list impaired waters (303d) & do TMDL report). NPS (in partnership with TN, NC, and EPA) has developed critical loads and a resource protection goal of acid deposition that would restore park streams to >6.0 ph. 3 3

4 Ozone, ppb Trend in Ozone Design Values for GRSM Area Monitors (3-Year Average of the 4 th Highest 8-Hour Average) NAAQS Knox Co, TN Blount Co, TN - Look Rock Sevier Co, TN - Cove Mtn Jefferson Co, TN Loudon Co, TN Anderson Co, TN Haywood Co, NC - Purchase Knob 2008 NAAQS 2015 Std 3-Year Periods 4

5 Foliar Injury 8-Hour Design Values Ozone Design Values versus Seasonal Exposures (W126) and Effects to Tree Species at GRSM 3-yr Avg of 3-mo max daylight (8am-8pm) W126 and 3-yr avg of 4th highest 8-Hour avg ( ) 1997 O3 NAAQS 85 ppb 2008 O3 NAAQS 75 ppb y = x x x R² = N= O3 NAAQS 70 ppb Black Cherry* Winged-sumac* American Sycamore* Yellow-poplar* EPA Proposed requisite: ppm-hours CASAC recommendation: 7-15 ppm-hours Foliar injury threshold: 5-9 ppm-hours W126 (ppm-hours) * W126 exposure to cause >10% growth reduction for plant species of known sensitivity at GRSM Eastern White Pine* Sugar Maple* 5

6 Trend in Annual PM2.5 Design Values for GRSM Area Monitors 3-Year Rolling Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations PM2.5, µg/m Annual PM2.5 NAAQS 2012 NAAQS Knox Co, TN Loudon Co, TN Roane Co, TN Blount Co, TN Swain Co, NC Buncombe Co, NC Look Rock, TN 3 0 6

7 Trend in 24-Hour PM 2.5 Design Values for GRSM Area Monitors 3-Year Rolling Average of the 98 th Percentile Values Pm2.5, µg/m Daily PM2.5 NAAQS Knox Co, TN Loudon Co, TN Roane Co, TN Blount Co, TN Swain Co, NC Buncombe, Co, NC Look Rock, TN 7

8 Haziness Index (Deciviews) Visual Range (Miles) Glide Path to Natural Visibility Conditions at GRSM 20% Worst & Best Days 20% Worst Observations Glide Path to Natural Conditions VISTAS Modeled Prediction 20% Best Observations (baseline worst) (baseline best)

9 Trends in Light Extinction/Haziness on the Annual 20% Haziest Days at Great Smoky Mountains National Park 9

10 Improvement in Haze on 20% Worst Days at Look Rock, TN mile Visual Range 33 deciviews mile Visual Range 19 deciviews 10

11 kg/ha Trends Trends in Sulfate, Nitrate, and Ammonium Wet Deposition GRSM-Elkmont, TN (Source: NADP-TN11) Sulfate-S Nitrate-N Ammonium-N Wet Deposition Monitoring U.S. sampling sites (37 NPs) 0% Aerochem Collector 11

12 Sulfate and Nitrate, mg/l ph Annual Average Rainfall ph and Precipitation- Weighted Mean Sulfate and Nitrate Concentrations GRSM-Elkmont, TN (Source: NADP-TN11) Sulfate ph Nitrate

13 kg/ha/yr Annual Dry Deposition of Nitrogen and Sulfur GRSM Look Rock, TN (Source: CASTNet) NH4_DRY_N NO3_DRY_N HNO3_DRY_N SO4_DRY_S SO2_DRY_S

14 Total Sulfate, Nitrate and Ammonium Deposition at GRSM (Source: Weathers et. al., High Resolution Deposition Map- 2011) Deposition varies with elevation and topography and is 2-3x greater at higher elevations TN NC Look Rock Elkmont TN Noland Divide NC 14

15 Abundant and Diverse Aquatic Resources at GRSM Area: 526,000 acres roughly equally divided in TN and NC; bisected by Appalachian Trail. Streams: 2,900 miles ranging from 1st 6th order, 5 ONRW s. Wetlands: Hundreds of riverine, pond, forest/shrub and emergent wetlands that are each ecologically significant and host rare communities & species. Fish: Over 60 species in 12 different families includes 3 Federal T&E spp. Aquatic Invertebrates: Over 900 species with 14 species new to science. TN NC TN NC 15 15

16 Water Quality and Fish Monitoring Sites at GRSM (390 monitoring sites since 1993) 16

17 Percent of Park Streams Parkwide Stream Monitoring Current ANC Results 60% 50% Acid Neutralizing Capacity (ANC) is a measure of the total buffering capacity against acidification for streams. Not Sensitive 1,479 miles 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Focusing on restoring the most sensitive streams will protect all streams Chronically Acidic 157 miles 5% Extremely Sensitive 377 miles 13% Sensitive 899 miles 31% 51% < 0 ueq/l 0-20 ueq/l ueq/l >50 ueq/l - Near or complete loss of fish and aquatic insects. - Reproductive failure of some species of amphibians. - Low diversity of plankton communities - Fish species richness greatly reduced. - Brook trout experience lethal effects. - Diversity & distribution of plankton declines sharply. - Fish species richness reduced >½. - Brook trout reduced health & reproduction. - Diversity & distribution of plankton declines. - Fish species richness unaffected. - Brook trout populations thrive. - Aquatic insects & plankton diversity unaffected. 17

18 Parkwide Stream Monitoring Current ANC Map at GRSM The more sensitive watersheds (low ANC, low ph) tend to be along the higher elevations and Appalachian Trail, TN/NC border. TN NC TN NC 18

19 Park Wide Stream Monitoring Current Results and Effects Streams are more acidic at higher elevations (>3,000 ft) and have not improved, 12 of which are violating Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act for low stream ph (<6.0). The Spruce-fir ecosystem is most sensitive. Park waters have little buffering capacity (ANC) to resist chronic acidification; nearly 50% of park streams are sensitive to extremely sensitive to acidification. Natural contributing factors: higher precipitation, shallow soils, geology, older forests Leads to chronic acidification and alters soil chemistry and fertility. Depletes soil nutrients (e.g. calcium); Mobilizes soil aluminum (e.g. toxic Al:Ca ratios); Excess soil nitrate leaks into streams (saturation); Leads to episodic acidification. ph declines of 1 2 units have been recorded during rain events (1-2 hour period). And ultimately, the loss of aquatic diversity and brook trout range and survival; 7 Brook Trout populations (13 miles of streams) have been lost due acidification 19

20 GRSM 303(d) ph-impaired Streams (2006) Where Are They? TN NC TN NC 20

21 GRSM Critical Load Collaborative Technical & Modelling Effort 2006: TN listed 12 park streams on Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act for low stream ph : TN (in collaboration with NPS, EPA, & NC air & water quality staff) finalized a simplified and streamlined TMDL report. TMDL = The Total Maximum Daily Load defines the total pollutant loading a water body can receive and still meet applicable water quality standards. 2010: TN requested GRSM draft TMDL implementation strategy: 1) That characterized the acid deposition issue at GRSM, and 2) identified the need for refined modeling to determine what level of deposition reductions of S & N were needed to restore the 303d streams to ph>6.0 using Critical Loads Modeling NC and EPA agreed. Critical Load = the amount of acid deposition below which harmful effects do not occur [it s a scientifically-based resource protective value]. 21

22 GRSM Critical Load Collaborative Technical & Modelling Effort : Park contracted with Dr. Charles Driscoll of Syracuse Univ. Parameterized a dynamic biogeochemical model (PnET-BGC) to evaluate past, current, and future changes in soil & water chemistry in response to changes in acid deposition using park soil, stream, vegetation, climate and air quality data through Simulations on 30 park streams were used to extrapolate critical loads for all streams, with the focus on the most susceptible streams [e.g. 303(d)] to determine the amount of atmospheric S and N deposition reduction needed to achieve ph of 6.0. If the most sensitive and impaired streams are restored, all park streams will be protected. 22

23 Wet + Dry S and N Deposition (kg/ha/yr) % of Susceptible Streams (-10 to 20 ANC) Recovered to ph> Acid Deposition Glide Path to Streamwater Recovery (ph>6.0) at GRSM Sources: Wet Deposition (NADP -Elkmont TN11), Dry Deposition (CASTNet - Look Rock GRS420), and Syracuse PnET-BGC Model Forecasts for Deposition and Stream ph Annual Measured Wet+Dry Inorganic N Deposition Annual Measured Wet+Dry Sulfur Deposition Rolling 3-Yr Average Annual Wet+Dry S & N Deposition Glide Path of N & S Deposition to Resource Protection Goal Natural Background of Annual Wet+Dry S & N Deposition % of Susceptible Streams Predicted to Recover w/60% Reduction Predicted Deposition (included CPP & MATS) Predicted Deposition Natural Background Resource Protection Goal of 3.1 kg/ha/yr 60% reduction from level 57% by Year 23

24 Wet + Dry S and N Deposition (kg/ha/yr) % of Susceptible Streams (-10 to 20 ANC) Recovered to ph> Acid Deposition Glide Path to Streamwater Recovery (ph>6.0) at GRSM Sources: Wet Deposition (NADP -Elkmont TN11), Dry Deposition (CASTNet - Look Rock GRS420), and Syracuse PnET-BGC Model Forecasts for Deposition and Stream ph Annual Measured Wet+Dry Inorganic N Deposition Annual Measured Wet+Dry Sulfur Deposition Rolling 3-Yr Average Annual Wet+Dry S & N Deposition Glide Path of N & S Deposition to Resource Protection Goal Natural Background of Annual Wet+Dry S & N Deposition % of Susceptible Streams Predicted to Recover w/60% Reduction Predicted Deposition (included CPP & MATS) Predicted Deposition Resource Protection Goal of 3.1 kg/ha/yr 60% reduction from level; % by Natural Background 71% by Year 24

25 Wet + Dry S and N Deposition (kg/ha/yr) % of Susceptible Streams (-10 to 20 ANC) Recovered to ph> Acid Deposition Glide Path to Streamwater Recovery (ph>6.0) at GRSM Sources: Wet Deposition (NADP -Elkmont TN11), Dry Deposition (CASTNet - Look Rock GRS420), and Syracuse PnET-BGC Model Forecasts for Deposition and Stream ph 7.9 Annual Measured Wet+Dry Inorganic N Deposition Annual Measured Wet+Dry Sulfur Deposition Rolling 3-Yr Average Annual Wet+Dry S & N Deposition Glide Path of N & S Deposition to Resource Protection Goal Natural Background of Annual Wet+Dry S & N Deposition % of Susceptible Streams Predicted to Recover w/60% Reduction Predicted Deposition (included CPP & MATS) Predicted Deposition Resource Protection Goal of 3.1 kg/ha/yr 60% reduction from level; % by Natural Background 87% by % by Year 25

26 On-going Efforts, Next Steps, and Collaboration Request 2015 Present: Park staff have held briefings for NPS, TN, NC, and EPA on this work. NPS is preparing a letter to TDEC and NCDEQ outlining this work. This information is also being provided to EPA s staff on the NOx/SOx secondary NAAQS Science Assessment process. Next Steps As the Southeastern states engage in planning and analysis for the second implementation period for Regional Haze, NPS is requesting: 1. Continued collaboration by sharing technical information (monitoring, emissions, and air quality modeling using the same base case year and projection year 2015, 2028) as it becomes available for GRSM receptors (e.g. Look Rock). NPS understands from TN & NC that there are significant additional emission reductions that will occur in TN and NC (e.g. Tenn. Eastman and Blue Ridge Paper) not reflected in this analysis. 2. Assistance with acid deposition modeling analysis in your upcoming Regional Haze technical analysis. That next round of projections will help track progress toward reaching the resource protection goal. 26

27 Thank You Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee/North Carolina National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

28 Pat Brewer says Hi from Colorado. (Photo taken on the Chimney Tops Trail in Smokies)