Virginia's Mountain Steams: What Thirty Years of. Acid Rain and Climate Change
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1 Virginia's Mountain Steams: What Thirty Years of Research tells us about Future Impacts of Acid Rain and Climate Change Todd Scanlon Jim Galloway Jack kcosby Rick Webb Drew Robison Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Mountain Stream Symposium Mountain Stream Symposium James Madison University September 21, 2013
2 Shenandoah Watershed Study (SWAS) Jim Galloway George Hornberger Initiated in 1979 as a cooperative research venture with the U.S. NPS Outdoor laboratory
3 Hierarchy of Spatial and Temporal Scales Shenandoah Watershed Study (SWAS) 5 streams Sampled weekly 1979 present Virginia Trout Stream Sensitivity Study (VTSSS) 66 streams Sampled quarterly 1988 present Decadal Survey 341 streams Sampled d1987, 2000, and 2010
4 SWAS Objectives... to improve understanding of ecosystem processes in the forested mountain watersheds of Shenandoah National Park and the central Appalachian region... to detect and assess hydro-biogeochemical changes occurring in these relatively undisturbed ecosystems SWAS Core Program Watershed is the basic unit of study framework for process- based research Basis for regional extrapolation Longest watershed study in National Park system Made possible by strong cooperation with NPS and EPA
5 U.S. Emissions Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 40 ns, ons SO 2 emission ousands of t S tho SO NO x emissio ons, th housands of tons NO x
6 U.S. Emissions Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 40 ns, ons SO 2 emission ousands of t S tho SO NO x emissio ons, th housands of tons NO x
7 U.S. Emissions Source: EPA National Emission Inventory 40 ns, ons SO 2 emission ousands of t S tho SO NO x emissio ons, th housands of tons NO x
8 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
9 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
10 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
11 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
12 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
13 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
14 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
15 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
16 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
17 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
18 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
19 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
20 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
21 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
22 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
23 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
24 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
25 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
26 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
27 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
28 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
29 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
30 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
31 Sulfate Ion Concentrations Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
32 Trends in atmospheric deposition Sulfate Ion Concentration Source: National Atmospheric Deposition Program Nitrate Ion Concentration
33 Stream / Lake water monitoring
34 Trends in stream & lake composition ( ) New England Lakes Adirondack Lakes Appalachian Streams Upper Midwest Lakes Sulfate Acid Neutralizing Capacity Slope of Trend (µeq/l/yr) Sulfate concentrations and acidity of surface waters in most regions have decreased in response to decreased dsulfur emissions i
35 Trends in stream & lake composition ( ) New England Lakes Adirondack Lakes Appalachian Streams Upper Midwest Lakes Western Virginia Streams Sulfate Acid Neutralizing Capacity Slope of Trend (µeq/l/yr) Sulfate concentrations and acidity of surface waters in most regions have decreased in response to decreased dsulfur emissions i But not in western VA. In 2002 EPA told Congress that this should ERbe a red flag to regulators.
36 Fish Diversity in Shenandoah National Park Streams 10 Number of Fish Specie es Minimum ANC (µeq/l; period of record) Source: Art Bulger, University of Virginia
37 ANC effect on Brook Trout populations ook trout abundance Adult bro Jastramet al., 2013
38 Estimated Critical Loads Long term damage to base cation states of soils Some locations may take centuries to recover, based on model estimates Webb, 2012 MAGIC used for estimates (Cosby)
39 Now for some positive news 341 brook trout streams sampled in 3 regional surveys: 1987, 2000, and 2010 Regional survey data:
40 Quarterly sampling trends Virginia Trout Stream Sensitivity Study (VTSSS) 66 streams Sampled quarterly 1988 present Rich getting richer (basaltic) Poor getting poorer (siliciclastic) Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) Siliciclastic Basalt Granite
41 Quarterly sampling trends (continued) Streams with decreasing ANC (Continued Acidification) Continued acidification is driven by declines in base cations. ql 1 yr 1 ) rend in ANC (μe Tr Streams with increasing ANC (Acid Recovery) Acid recovery driven by declinesinstream stream sulfate. n ANC (μeq L 1 yr 1 ) Trend i Robison et al., in review
42 Predicting declines in sulfate (weekly data) Net SO 4 source PAIN: 2015 Cross over PINE: 2012 dt dates for SNP STAN: 2016 streams WOR1: 2021 DR01: 2017 Net SO 4 sink
43 Unexpected events: Gypsy moth defoliation Gypsy Moth Lymantria dispar Source: U.S. Forest Service
44 Unexpected events: Gypsy moth defoliation White Oak Run, Shenandoah National Park
45 Unexpected events: Rapidan flood (1995) Staunton River
46 Emerging Issue: Climate Change Possible Impacts: Range of brook trout In stream metabolism Affect on acid/base status
47 Watersheds as outdoor laboratories Mercury deposition measurements in Big Meadows Mercury sampling in Staunton River
48 Future Plans Make data accessible online Deployment of in situ sensors Make data accessible in real time (satellite transmission)
49 Acknowledgments Shenandoah National Park Dominion Foundation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Markets Division Appalachian Stewardship Foundation Virginia Council of Trout Unlimited University of Virginia
50 Acknowledgments Susie Maben Rick ikwebb
51 Sulfur Dioxide (SO 2 ) Emissions in U.S s, thousan nds of ton ns SO 2 emission Source: EPA National Emission Inventory Year
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