CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORESTS

Transcription

1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORESTS FILIPE DUARTE SANTOS CCIAM CE3C Centre for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa New Challenges for Forest Research Centro de Estudos Florestais, 40 years, ISA - UL Lisbon, 26 January de 2017

2 Concentração do dióxido de carbono aumentou de 42% desde o século XVIII

3 Fonte: NOAA 2016

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5 What does it mean for the Earth system a CO2 atmospheric concentration of 400 ppmv?

6 Source, Petit et al., 1999

7 Fonte, IPCC

8 French, Russian, and American scientists in the Vostok team photo with unprocessed ice cores. Cores coming out of the barrel are generally 4-6m long and are cut to 1m sections. The pictured ice columns are unprocessed cores. White containers in the background are used for transporting 1m sections. Source caption identifies this as being from GISP2. This actually is at Vostok.

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10 The present values of CO2, CH4 and N2O (all GHG) atmospheric concentrations were never reached at least in the last years EPICA PROJECT DOME STATION, Antarctic

11 Since the Industrial Revolution the estimated total anthropogenic emission of CO2 to the atmosphere has been: /- 310 Gigattons of CO2 (billions of tons) (GtCO2) (IPCC, AR5) That corresponds to an annual average of 7,7 GtCO2 To comply with the Paris Agreement, which implies staying below 2º C increase in the global average temperature at the Earth s surface relative to pre-industrial times, CO2 emissions must not go over 1000 GtCO2 (870 a 1240 GtCO2, IPCC AR5) Presently we are emiting about 35 GtCO2 per year solely from the combustion of fossil fuels and the industry sector (cement, metals and chemical) In 2014 those emissions amounted to 35,7 GtCO2 (Trends in Global CO2 Emissions, 2015 Report, JRC, PBL) If we just mantain the present of CO2 emissions we have only 27 years (no more fossil fuels after 2044!!).Then zero!!

12 24% 11% 65% IPCC, AR5, 2014, Synthesis Report No! land use changes reduces to 24 years and the other GHG to 18 years (2035)

13 Forest Resources Assessments of Tropical Natural Forests

14 What are the known total resources of fossil fuels measured in terms of the CO2 emissions that would be produce if all burned? About GtCO2 (McGlade and Ekins, Nature, 2015) Of these, GtCO2 are reserves, which means that they can be economically explored now (McGlade and Ekins, Nature, 2015) To comply with the Paris Agreement we must consume only the equivalent to 1000 GtCO2, which means that we must leave in the ground about 65% of the fossil fuel reserves (or use them with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) which implies and increase in the price of energy).

15 The disruptions on the Earth system caused by the present level of GHG emissions will probably exceed those that took place in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 56,3 millions years ago (Zeebe et al., Nature, 2016). At that time 9200 to GtCO2 were emitted to the atmosphere in about 4000 years increasing the global average temperature by 5 8º C (Zeebe et al., 2016). Without complying with the Paris Agreement and mantaining the business as usual humanity has the potential to emit GtCO2e (4990 GtC), that is all the anthropogenic CO2 and CH4, including the emissions resulting from positive feedbacks

16 PETM Paleoceno-Eocene Thermal Maximum - PETM

17 Future Scenarios IPCC, 2014

18 Impact of national climate pledges (aka INDCs) on world s greenhouse gas emissions measured in CO2 equivalents (CO2e).

19 Schellnhuber, Nature, 2016

20 Guiot and Cramer, Science, 2016 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP2.6

21 Guiot and Cramer, Science, 2016

22 Guiot and Cramer, Science, 2016

23 Guiot and Cramer, Science, 2016

24 Project IMPRESSIONS Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions EU FP7 Project which started 1 November 2013 EU contribution: ~ 9m Duration: 5 years Coordinated by University of Oxford, UK Transdisciplinary consortium of 24 partners from 16 European countries Portugal through CCIAM CE3C (FCUL) is one of the partners

25 The Iberian case study EC Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number:

26 Water Transfer Between River Basins

27 Intensive irrigated agriculture with a water transfer pipeline from the Tagus River, at Almeria, Spain

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31 RCP

32 RCP8.5

33 RCP

34 RCP8.5

35 SSP1 RCP4.5 Sustainability

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37 SSP1 RCP4.5 Sustainability

38 SSP1 RCP4.5 Sustainability

39 SSP1 RCP4.5 Sustainability

40 SSP3 RCP8.5 Fragmented World

41 SSP3 RCP8.5 Fragmented World

42 SSP3 RCP8.5 Fragmented World

43 SSP3 RCP8.5 Fragmented World

44 Thank you for your attention