climate change Contents CO 2 (ppm)
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1 climate change CO 2 (ppm) 2007 Joachim Curtius Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Universität Mainz Contents 1. Summary 2. Background 3. Climate change: observations 4. CO 2 5. Other Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) 6. Aerosols and Clouds 7. Solar variability 8. Future climate change 9. Paleo-climate 10. Climate protection
2 CO 2 1. CO 2 cycle, natural and anthropogenic 2. uptake of additional CO 2 by oceans and terrestrial biosphere 3. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 4. deforestation 5. CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) atmospheric CO 2 - concentration more than 1 Ma ago [IPCC 2007] CO 2 derived from several proxies (carbon isotope ratios in biological entities, boron isotopes, stomata pores on tree leaves and CO 2 correlation)
3 Cox et al., Nature, 2000: Accumulated carbon budget Uptake of CO 2 by biota/soils is one of the largest uncertainties. more CO2, more photosynthesis, but soils release more CO 2 with increasing temperatures; eventually terrestrial biosphere will become a source of CO 2 Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions Average of the 1990ies (SAR) [ (4AR)]: from fossil fuel: 6.4±0.4 PgC/yr = 23.1 Gt CO 2 /yr [7.2±0.3PgC/yr] (units: 1 Peta-Gramm of carbon per year corresponds to ~1 Giga-ton of C per year, corresponds to 3.66 Gt CO 2 per year, 4 Gt C emission 1 ppm CO 2 increase from land use change (LUC, mostly deforestation): ~1.7±0.9 PgC/yr (average 1980ies) [1.6 PgC/yr] fate of CO 2 from fossil fuels: ocean uptake 1.7±0.5 PgC/yr [2.2±0.5] net-uptake in terrestrial biosphere 1.4 ±0.7 PgC/yr [0.9±0.6] remaining in the atmosphere 3.2 ±0.1 PgC/yr [4.1±0.1]
![Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions fate of CO 2 from fossil fuels: ocean uptake 1.7±0.5 PgC/yr [2.2±0.5] net-uptake in terrestrial biosphere 1.4 ±0.7 PgC/yr [0.9±0.6] remaining in the atmosphere 3.2 ±0.](/docs-images/74/70995871/images/4-0.jpg "1 PgC/yr [4.1±0.1] net-uptake = additional terrestrial uptake - LUC fossil fuel emiss.= atmos. + (add. terr. uptake LUC) + ocean uptake 6.4 3.2 + 1.4 + 1.7 ca.")
4 Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions fate of CO 2 from fossil fuels: ocean uptake 1.7±0.5 PgC/yr [2.2±0.5] net-uptake in terrestrial biosphere 1.4 ±0.7 PgC/yr [0.9±0.6] remaining in the atmosphere 3.2 ±0.1 PgC/yr [4.1±0.1] net-uptake = additional terrestrial uptake - LUC fossil fuel emiss.= atmos. + (add. terr. uptake LUC) + ocean uptake ca. 50% of CO 2 emissions are taken up by ocean and land biota within 30 years, another 30% within several centuries, ~ 20% stay in atmosphere Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions
5
6 coupling and decoupling of economic growth and CO 2 emissions
7 Energyconsumption in Germany DIE ZEIT,
8
9 per-capita-emissions of CO 2 : Bangladesh: ca. 133 million population, ~0,2 t/capita China: 1.27 billion population, now ~3,0 t/capita Germany: 81 million. population, ~11 t/capita USA: 294 million population, ~21 t/capita world average: ~4,0 t/capita
10
11 CO 2 from land use change (deforestation)
![Switzerland [Spektrum der Wissenschaft, 2004] Indonesia in the El Nino](/docs-images/74/70995871/images/12-2.jpg "season 1997/1998: total damage severe damage moderate damage [Siegert et")
12 Indonesia in the El Nino season 1997/1998: Kalimatan and the "Mega Rice Project" more than fires in 1998 burned area larger than Switzerland [Spektrum der Wissenschaft, 2004] Indonesia in the El Nino season 1997/1998: total damage severe damage moderate damage [Siegert et al., Nature, 2001]
13 Indonesia in the El Nino season 1997/1998: tremendous forest fires and peat fires estimate bysiegert et al., Nature, 2001: damages in pristine forests small (5%) damages in tropical forests with selective logging high (60%) damages in agriculturalareas veryhigh (>70%) estimate bypage et al., Nature, 2002: PgC released in Indonesia in 1997! 13-40% of the annual consumptionof fossil fuels! 50 cm peat burned on average. risk for further fires increased. in Indonesia: ca Gt C stored in peat. Global destruction of tropical rain forests: 1 hectar per second (~ 2 soccer fields) hectar per day (> area of New York) 31 million hectar per year (> Poland) besides CO 2 release, many other problems such as reduction/extinction of plants and animals, changes of local and regional climate.
14 Rondonia, deforestationof tropical rainforest: COUNTRY (in km 2 ) ORIGINAL EXTENT OF FOREST COVER PRESENT EXT. OF PRIMARY FOREST COVER ANNUAL DEFOREST. (km 2 ) Bolivia (1,098,581) 90,000 45,000 1,500 Brazil (8,511,960) 2,860,000 1,800,000 50,000 C. America (522,915) 500,000 55,000 3,300 Columbia (1,138,891) 700, ,000 6,500 Congo (342,000) 100,000 80, Ecuador (270,670) 132,000 44,000 3,000 Indonesia (1,919,300) 1,220, ,000 12,000 Cote D'Ivoire (322,463) 160,000 4,000 2,500 Laos (236,800) 110,000 25,000 1,000 Madagascar (590,992) 62,000 10,000 2,000 Mexico (1,967,180) 400, ,000 7,000 Nigeria (924,000) 72,000 10,000 4,000 Philippines (299,400) 250,000 8,000 2,700 Thailand (513,517) 435,000 22,000 6,000 Vgl. EU-25: 3,977,000 km 2
15 [Kintisch, Science, 2007] CO 2 capture and storage [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005]
16 CO 2 capture and storage system Fuels Processes Storage options CO 2 storage CO 2 is captured from the power plant exhaust (large point, sources), transported bypipelines and then stored in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep sea, etc. technically feasible additional costs: 1-5 cent/kwh severalmethods and practices are currently being tested, but so far no large scale/long term experience
![2005] deep sea CO 2](/docs-images/74/70995871/images/17-1.jpg "2005]")
17 geological CO 2 storage [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005] deep sea CO 2 storage [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005]
18 Energy requirements Additional energy use of 10-40% (for same output) Capture efficiency: 85-95% Net CO 2 reduction: 80-90% Assuming safe storage [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005] Capture of CO 2
![potential leakages of CO 2 back to the atmosphere [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005] Will leakage compromise CCS as a climate change mitigation option?](/docs-images/74/70995871/images/19-0.jpg "Fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed geological reservoirs is very likely to exceed 99% over 100 years, and is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years.")
19 potential leakages of CO 2 back to the atmosphere [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005] Will leakage compromise CCS as a climate change mitigation option? Fraction retained in appropriately selected and managed geological reservoirs is very likely to exceed 99% over 100 years, and is likely to exceed 99% over 1,000 years. "Likely" is a probability between 66 and 90%, "very likely" of 90 to 99% Release of CO 2 from ocean storage would be gradual over hundreds of years Sufficient?
20 Global large stationary CO 2 sources with emissions of more than 0.1 MtCO 2 /year Geographical relationship between sources and storage opportunities Storageprospectivity Highly prospective sedimentary basins Prospective sedimentary basins Non-prospective sedimentary basins, metamorphic and igneous rock Data quality and availability vary among regions Prospective areas in sedimentary basins where suitable saline formations, oil or gas fields, or coal beds may be found. Locations for storage in coal beds are only partly included. Prospectivity is a qualitative assessment of the likelihood that a suitable storage location is present in a given area based on the available information. This figure should be taken as a guide only, because it is based on partial data, the quality of which may vary from region to region, and which may change over time and with new information (Courtesy of Geoscience Australia).
21 Storage potential Geological storage: likely at least about 2,000 GtCO 2 in geological formations "Likely" is a probability between 66 and 90%. Ocean storage: on the order of thousands of GtCO 2, depending on environmental constraints Mineral carbonation: can currently not be determined Industrial uses: Not much net reduction of CO 2 emissions A potential scenario of future emissions: [IPCC, SRCCS, 2005]
22 estimate for costs of CO 2 stabilization, IPCC, 2001:
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