The Anthropocene: a new geological epoch. The industrial revolution marked an increasing human influence on the Earth System

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1 Road to Paris 2015 climate talks with cities thinking globally, acting locally G. Janssens-Maenhout, F. Raes Contributions of European Commission support? The Anthropocene: a new geological epoch The industrial revolution marked an increasing human influence on the Earth System How did human beings alter the global natural ecosystems so far? Paul Crutzen Nobel Prize-winning, atmospheric chemist Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, F(g)) emissions: primary cause of global warming 2

2 Greenhouse Gas (76% CO 2, 16% CH 4, 6% N 2 O, F-gases) emissions increase MITIGATION: reducing greenhouse gas emissions Global warming Change of the Earth System (Atmosphere, Biosphere, Cryosphere, Hydrosphere, Geosphere) ADAPTATION: Building climate resilient society MITIGATION: science / technology? Limit Energy demand in increase Increase energy efficiency Fuel shift: gas instead of coal, renewables, nuclear energy Land use 24% Agriculture 13% Other 4% Transport 13% Road 10% Other 11% Waste 3% Energy Sector 34% Electricity 14% buildings 26% 10% industry Flaring & Fugitive 5% Other 3% Industry 19% Industry 22% Carbon storage and capture IPCC AR5 WGIII (2014)

3 ADAPTATION: science/technology? Reducing vulnerability Prevention Reconstruction Assessing hazards & risks Early warning/ Preparation Improving resilience Remediation/ Reconditioning Intervention Science! Political & Social?

4 GLOBAL achievements? CO2 report of Olivier, Janssens-Maenhout, Muntean, Peters (2015) EU contribution? Kyoto Protocol Climate & Energy package 2020 package 2030 EEA Progress Report (2015)

5 LOCAL initiatives? The COVENANT of MAYORS is a mainstream European movement for the sustainable energy & climate protection: involving local and regional authorities 6,568 signatories 210,570,480 inhabitants CoM 6-year Assessment report of Albana, Melica, Rivas, Zancanella, Iancu, Janssens-Maenhout, Bertoldi (2015) 34% of EU28 citizens * As off October % of EU28 citizens EC-JRC and Covenant of Mayors Office EC-JRC and Covenant of Mayors Office 28% of EU28 citizens

6 The emission inventories model of the Covenant of Mayors Direct fuel combustion Other Direct Indirect KEY SECTORS Only the part related to the consumption of key sectors Covenant of Mayors: is popular amongst rather small cities Population size distribution Of cities in EU28 Of signatories in CoM

7 Covenant of Mayors performance indicators Reference inventory Monitoring 2015 Target % - 21% Tonnes CO 2 eq. per capita emitted in signatory cities. - 28% - 25% 15 MWh per capita of final energy consumed in signatory cities. 13 New developments in the Covenant Initiative 1. Covenant goes beyond % reduction until Extension towards countries outside EU28 (focus on developing countries: e.g. China) 3. Incorporation of adaptation measures Biannual ceremony of the Covenant of Mayors Brussels, 15 October November

8 Bottom-up Inventories Reporting, measuring, verifying? National inventory reporting (Kyoto) Greening of cities, improved urban life quality To monitor the emission reductions over time We need data, statistical infrastructure, emissions gridmaps. US GHG information system (2015) EDGAR CO2 emissions gridmap 2010 ton CO x 0.1 Downscaling to 700mx700m Torino Milano - Brescia

9 Data assimilation helps assessing emissions trends NASA, 2015 Annual inventories of nations/ cities (sectorspecific totals) Satellite data (measured gas column concentrations) Site measurements (e.g. flux towers, flask measurements) Data assimilation Are we prepared to be assessed? Conclusions EC is party of UNFCCC and helps monitoring Kyoto Protocol targets of EU28 Member States The EU s Climate and Energy package: extension to 2030 (with 40% greenhouse gas reductions (27% renewables and 27% energy efficiency) EC s initiative of the Covenant of Mayors initiative helps cities establishing sustainable energy action plans, and also adaptation plans. With a united voice of the small cities, awareness is raising, even at global level We need reportable, measurable, verifiable data for monitoring the emissions reductions.

10 More info: Edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu Thank you for your attention 19