Prospects of nuclear energy in terms of their uranium fuel supply

Transcription

1 Prospects of nuclear energy in terms of their uranium fuel supply Nikolaus ARNOLD, Wolfgang KROMP Institute of Security- and Risk Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Werner ZITTEL Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH World Resources Forum 211, Sep 19 21, 211

2 Background Re organisation of energy supply and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions nuclear energy propagated Uranium as fuel No significant progress alternative fuel cycles and reactors (Gen. 4) Fuel base for current nuclear reactor fleet availability is basis for expansion capability and reach Annual demand ~ 7 t natural Uranium equivalent 8 7 Vergleich Bedarf - Produktion Fulfilment of demand Stocks (incl. nuclear weapons) Mining Reprocessing (RepU, MOX) t U Historische Produktion Reaktorbedarf Comparison of Production and Demand; Data: IAEA

3 Background / Scope of work Rise in uranium prices in 27 Inflexible market development of new deposits requires long lead times financial risk for potential investors The aim of the work carried out Identify structures and main actors of the uranium market. Analysis of historical developments. Introduction of scenarios to forecast the uranium market. Comparison of supply scenarios and nuclear growth scenarios Source: Euratom Supply Agency

4 Methodology (1) Data basis Annual company reports, official sources Amounts & classifications of resources, ore quality, capacity of the production, historical data, planned developments and expansions Detailed assessments of approximately 7 production facilities Adding up the individual production is a regional or global picture of the production Kyzkylkum (N. Kharasan 1) - based on 27 IR, at 9% capacity startup first production phase extended production phase mine phase out Northern Kharasan1 Capacity: 1 t p.a. IR (recoverable): 31 t U Expansion planned: 3 t p.a. t U

5 Methodology (2) Bellshaped curve (Hubbert) Describes exponential growth in a limited (resources) space Used for potential approximation when no detailed data or (currently) no mining takes place Estimation on US uranium production potential via Hubbert curve Can not completely coincide with the true course of production of a uranium mine Limitations of the market and the infrastructure faster reaching the production capacity Comparison of bell shaped curve with course of production Rabbit Lake, CAN tu Rabbit Lake - historisch angepasste Glockenkurve

6 Resources Definitions Conventional Resources Identified Resources Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) Inferred Resources Undiscovered Resources Unconventional Resources Seawater, Phosphates Source: LBST

7 Global Distribution RAR Brazil 3,9% South Africa 4,9% Australia 29,4% Canada 9,7% Kazakhstan 1,3% Nige r 6,1% USA 11,8% Others 8,9% Distribution of RAR <26$/kg, 29 IAEA/OECD 21 China 2,9% Nam ibia 3,9% Russia 4,5% Uk raine 3,6% RAR <4 $/kgu <26 $/kgu Australia 1179 About 4.4 million tu <26 $ / kg identified worldwide 6% in 4 Countries more than 9% in 11 Countries 2% in a single deposit (Olympic Dam) Brazil China Canada Kazakhstan Namibia Niger Russia South Africa Ukraine USA 4724 World Total Andere 3573

8 Global Distribution Identified Resources <4 $/kgu <26 $/kgu Australia 1679 Brazil China Canada Kazakhstan Jordan million tu <26 $ / kg 65% in 5 Countries Namibia Niger almost 9% in 11 Countries Russia South Africa % Olympic Dam Ukraine USA 4724 Uzbekistan 1146 World Total Others 4565 Brazil 4,4% Jordan 1,8% South Africa 4,7% Uzbekistan 1,8% Australia 26,6% Canada 8,6% Kazakhstan 13,2% Niger 4,4% Russia 9,% USA 7,5% Andere 7,2% Distribution of Identified Resources <26$/kg, 29 IAEA/OECD 21 China 2,7% Namibia 4,5% Ukraine 3,5%

9 Key Countries 6 Major countries based on uranium production and resources Australia, Namibia, Niger, Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia Australia Olympic Dam limit for production Kazakhstan Growth vs. reach Other countries with potential influence on the uranium market U.S., China, South Africa, Brazil, Ukraine, Uzbekistan t U tu Andere Australien Kanada Kasachstan Namibia Niger Russland USA Usbekistan 1 5 Figures: Historical uranium production Production szenario Kazakhstan Karatau (Budenovskoye 2) KATKO (Moinkum 1,2(Tortkuduk),3) Akbastau JV (Budenovskoye 1,3,4) BAIKEN U (N. Kharassan 2) Stepnoe (Mynkuduk E, Uvanas) Kyzylkum (N. Kharassan 1) Zarechnoye Zhalpak Mining Vostok&Zvezdnoye) Startup 1958 Betpak-Dala (Akdala, Inkai 4) Taukentskiy (Kanzhugan, Moinkum 1,3) KenDala (Mynkuduk Central) Minig Group 6 (Karamurun N&S) Appak (Mynkuduk West) Semizbai (Semizbai, Irkol) Inkai JV (1,2,3) Rest Bell-curve-fit Rest-IR

10 Supply scenarios Scenarios of global uranium availability based on RAR.

11 World Resources Forum 211, Sep 19 21, 211 Supply scenarios

12 Grades and lead times years Timespan betweeen discovery and Minestartup Initial Ressources (tu) of Uranium deposits assigned to grades (% U) Source IAEA UDEPO (excluding depleted, phosphorite, blackshale, dormant, reclaimed); lower estimates and actual values for mines larger than 1, tu used to total 5,825, tu. Olympic Dam other <,3 %,3-,5 %,5-,1 %,1-,2 %,1-1,,2-,5 %,5-1 % 1-5 %,15-5, > 5% Global distribution by grades Few highly concentrated much of lower concentration Historically operated in a "better" mining deposits Mining lead times The most easily accessible deposits have been taken already in operation until Stricter environmental regulations Low uranium prices have delayed the launch of new mines. Previous selection of deposits via economic criteria increasingly unfavorable projects must be developed

13 Conclusions Production scenarios RAR With the currently known RAR no growth in the reactor park can be supported! Peak production is expected around 22. Identified resources Can support growth, but do not cover more than one requirement of 1, tu in 25 Peak in production around 23 Future uranium market influenced by Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Niger and Namibia partially by Russia and the United States. Balance in production and demand seems possible temporarily reduced demand for secondary ressources rapid growth of production in Kazakhstan Rapid expansion may lead to an equally rapid decline

14 Conclusions Resources do not match the available supply quantity Lead times up to 3 years global supply security needs forward looking planning Planning time of companies only short term Production in Kazakhstan signalize, that enough uranium is available and therefore slow down additional exploration Other frame conditions Technical (eg Cigar Lake) Political & Social other bottlenecks ( eg ISL acid)

15 TODO Thank you! Contact: Nikolaus Arnold Institut für Sicherheits und Risikowissenschaften Borkowskigasse Wien nikolaus.arnold@boku.ac.at