Estimates on uranium supply on a mineby-mine

Transcription

1 Estimates on uranium supply on a mineby-mine basis IAEA Technical meeting on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Information System and Leveraging Synergies for Sustainability Nikolaus Arnold Institute for Security and Risk Sciences University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna

2 Contents 1) Background and targets of work performed 2) Methodolgy 3) Results 4) Further findings 5) Outlook

3 Background Institute for security and risk sciences has one focus in identifying and addressing a broad spectrum of socio-economical an technical risks. Interest on uranium arouse from high prices in 27 and first publications on uranium supply. The uranium market appeared to be inflexible and therefore risk afflicted. Targets Identify structures and main players in uranium markets Analyse the historical development Introduce scenario forecasts on uranium market development Identifying development potential of nuclear energy resulting from supply scenarios and comparison with nuclear growth scenarios

4 Methodology Collection of data Annual Reports of Companies (Areva, Cameco, Uranium One, ) Official data from OECD/NEA/IAEA Reports Other sources worldnuclear.org, US and Canadian Geological Survey Comparison of data would not always conform Analysis of historical development Future supply Based on individual mines mining profiles Regional Resources logistic growth profiles (bell shape)

5 Remarks and Limitations To reduce amount of data - representative countries and production centres were chosen Differences in data from different sources identified Recovery factors were usually extracted from reserve applying these factors to identified resources may result in upper limit Production rates were determined for different capacity utilizations

6 Mining profiles Collected data Categorized reserves and resources, mine capacities, planned expansions, recovery factors About 7 mines N. Kharasan 1: Capacity: 1 t p.a. IR (recoverable): 31 t U Expansion planed: 3 t p.a Kyzkylkum (N. Kharasan 1) - based on 27 IR, at 9% capacity startup first production phase extended production phase mine phase out t U

7 Logistic growth profiles Based on bell shaped curve from Hubbert (1956) Describes exponential growth in limited (resource) space; shows good fit especially in oil production Used when no specific mining profile could be applied

8 Production curves In reality limited by market and infrastructure Startup of mines expected to be faster BUT: Some good fits found Bancroft Agnew Lake Glockenkurve-Bancroft Glockenkurve-Agnew Lake t U Historical Production McArthur t U Rabbit Lake - historisch angepasste Glockenkurve

9 Global distribution - RAR RAR 29 Total 4 Mio tu < 26$/kg U 6% in 4 countries More than 9% in 11 countries 2% in Olympic Dam deposit Australia Brasil China Canada Kazakstan Namibia Niger Russia South Africa Ukraine <4 US$/kgU <8 US$/kgU <13 US$/kgU <26 US$/kgU USA Distribution of Reasonbly Assured Ressources < 26$/kgU Source: IAEA/OECD 21 World Total Others Brasil 3,9% South Africa 4,9% Australia 29,4% Canada 9,7% Kazakstan 1,3% Niger 6,1% USA 11,8% Others 8,9% China 2,9% Namibia 3,9% Russia 4,5% Ukraine 3,6%

10 Global Distribution Identified Resources TOTAL 29 ~ 6,3 Mio tu < 26$/kg 65% in 5 countries Almost 9% in 11 countries 19% at Olympic Dam Australia Brasil China Canada Kazakstan Jordan Namibia Niger Russia South Africa <4 US$/kgU <8 US$/kgU <13 US$/kgU <26 US$/kgU Ukraine USA Uzbekistan World Total Distribution of Identified Ressources < 26$/kgU Source: IAEA/OECD 21 Andere Brasil 4,4% Jordan 1,8% South Africa 4,7% Uzbekistan 1,8% Australia 26,6% Canada 8,6% Kazakstan 13,2% Niger 4,4% Russia 9,% USA 7,5% Others 7,2% China 2,7% Namibia 4,5% Ukraine 3,5%

11 Selection of key countries Depending on aspects of importance of country in uranium production and resources, and availability of data Mining profiles: Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Niger, Namibia, Russia Bell shaped curves USA, China, South Africa country rest Andere Australien Added to world total Brazil, Ukraine, Uzbekistan t U Kanada Kasachstan Namibia Niger Russland USA Usbekistan

12 Preceding work First work by Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik, Germany ISR-graphics Mines added country wise Different scenarios RAR IR

13 Mine by mine analysis World RAR <26$ (8% minecapacity) World RAR <26$ (9% minecapacity)

14 Mine by mine analysis

15 Further findings Historically deposits of high concentrations mined Depletion of resources related to grade (Lower estimate 9 mio tu) Quelle: UDEPO, IAEA ' tu <,3 %,3-,5 %,5-,1 %,1-,2 %,2-,5 %,5-1 % 1-5 % > 5% Initial Ressources (tu) of Uranium deposits assigned to grades (% U) Source IAEA UDEPO (excluding depleted, phosphorite, blackshale, dormant, reclaimed); lower estimates and actual values for mines larger than 1, tu used to total 5,825, tu Depletion of resources related to grade (High estimate 14 mio tu) ' tu Olympic Dam other <,3 %,3-,5 %,5-,1 %,1-,2 %,1-1,,2-,5 %,5-1 % 1-5 %,15-5, > 5% 1 5 <,3 %,3-,5 %,5-,1 %,1-,2 %,2-,5 %,5-1 % 1-5 % > 5%

16 Further findings Startup-times Constantly growing timespan between discovery and startup Data: IAEA/OECD and own ISR data years Timespan betweeen discovery and Minestartup Secondary resources Stocks: Cannot exceed amount mined in times of overproduction (6tU); large amount will stay reserved for military

17 Conclusions Global development depends on Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Niger, Namibia Kazakhstan can contribute to a growth of production towards demand Olympic Dam has very high resources, but still a capacity limit will apply Time between discovery and mining Installation of new mines has to planned way in advance A growth towards high demand scenarios doesn t seem feasible Frame conditions Technical (eg. Cigar Lake), Political, Social, Other bottlenecks eg. ISL.acid

18 TODO Maintain and update collected data Identifying other Bottlenecks related to NFC technologies and substances / resources Relevance of Thorium for NFC Find empirical Function to describe Uranium Mining Influence of new reactors (burnup, initial fuel loads)

19 Thank you! Contact: Nikolaus Arnold Institut für Sicherheits- und Risikowissenschaften Borkowskigasse Wien nikolaus.arnold@boku.ac.at