Climate Change..Data and Research Challenges. Michael D. Meyer, P.E. F. R. Dickerson Professor of Civil Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

Transcription

1 Climate Change..Data and Research Challenges Michael D. Meyer, P.E. F. R. Dickerson Professor of Civil Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

2 Typical Segment

3 Corridor

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5 Adaptation Research

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7 Foundational Research Identification of vulnerable infrastructure and assets Identification of opportunities for adaptation of specific facilities Understanding changes in the life span of facilities caused by climate change Understanding the modes and causes of failure Assessing the risks, costs and benefits of adaptation Models and tools to support decision making Monitoring and sensing

8 Applied Research Planning and environmental decision making, Design standards and practices, Construction, Maintenance, Operations, Renewal and rehabilitation, New infrastructure to support mitigation measures, Best practices, Long-range planning related to transportation and land use, The influencing of land use decisions, and The funding of adaptation.

9 NCHRP 20-83(5) Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches

10 Objectives: 1) synthesize the current state of knowledge on the range of impacts of climate change on the highway system by region of the United States for the period ) recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches and strategies that state DOTs can use during the different stages of planning and project development and system management to adapt both infrastructure and operations to these impacts

11 3) prepare guidance, materials and methods for dealing with these impacts, and Climate Change and Adaptive Transportation Management: xxxxx (e.g., Maintenance) 1. How might climate change affect xxxxx? 2. What is the adaptive transportation system management approach to considering climate change? 3. What are the elements of an adaptive xxxxx program? 4. What strategies can be considered as part of the adaptive xxxxx program? 5. What is the process for considering the analysis of such strategies as part of decision making? 6. What are the risk assessment and cost effectiveness tools that can be used to analyze possible strategies? 7. How is a adaptive xxxxx program established? 8. Technical references

12 4) identify future research and activities needed to improve our understanding of possible impacts and on the steps needed for adaptive system management.

13 Actual Change Impact to Operations/Maintenance Category Impact to Infrastructure

14 Coastal State Projections of Sea Level Rise by 2050 Relative to 2010

15 Identify critical performance measures Identify critical assets in the network Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Climate Adaptation Planning Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Asset A Asset B Asset C Identify affected highway agency functions Asset X Network Functions

16 Some Early Data Lessons GC2. Data collection for all modes is a serious challenge Proprietary date is often not willingly provided Many databases do not have common referencing systems The data that is available represents historical or today s conditions not necessarily what will exist in some future year when adaptation issues might be of greater concern If you are not careful in how your criteria are applied, everything becomes critical.

17 Identify critical assets in the network Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Adaptation Planning Framework Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Asset A Asset B Asset C Identify affected highway agency functions Asset X Network Functions

18 Probabilistic and Impact Models Approaches Ensembles, November Climate Change and Its Impacts at Seasonal, Decadal and Centennial Timescales,, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.

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20 Dessai and van der Sluijs, Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation a Scoping Study,

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22 Physical processes such as: --Wave runup --Settlement --Degradation --Super elevation --etc. Dessai and van der Sluijs, Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation a Scoping Study,

23 Keller, Jake A.; Armstrong, Amit; Flood, Michael; Meyer, Michael D, AN APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON ROADWAY AND BRIDGE DESIGN, paper to be presented at the Annual Meeting of TRB, Jan

24 For example.. Keller, Jake A.; Armstrong, Amit; Flood, Michael; Meyer, Michael D, AN APPROACH TO ADDRESSING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON ROADWAY AND BRIDGE DESIGN, paper to be presented at the Annual Meeting of TRB, Jan

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26 Options for the treatment of risks: Future-proofing of designs Retro-fit solutions Developing contingency plans Updating operating procedures Monitoring Research

27 Proactive Strategies to Flood Risk Preventing flooding by improving the rainfall capture and storage capacity of a catchment (e.g. by enhancing or mimicking the water storage capacity of the soil); Increasing conveyance capacity to disperse floodwaters; Creating policies to maintain existing levels of service which incorporate climate change factors at the time of repairs or upgrades; NZ Transport Agency, Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network, Volume Two: Approach to Risk Management, 2009

28 Proactive Strategies to Flood Risk, cont d Establishing physical protection measures, e.g. building stop-banks; Managing the effects of flooding by removing at-risk land use such as infrastructure and the built environment in floodplains; and Managing the expectations of communities in floodprone areas to expect and cope with flood events. NZ Transport Agency, Climate Change Effects on the Land Transport Network, Volume Two: Approach to Risk Management, 2009

29 Recent Case Studies from International Conference on Adaptation, Brisbane, Australia Flood modeling & vulnerabilities in Manila, Philippines (JICA) Swiss RE: Insurance company considering adaptation risks Shrewsbury, UK flooding analysis: Vulnerability vs. cost Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP) in Australia Melbourne water supply system vulnerability study (CSIRO) Australian power system risk assessment (PB project) Australian concrete deterioration study (CSIRO) Transitway planning case studies in Sydney and the Gold Coast (Manindis Roberts) Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee s (PIEVC) work & engineering protocols in Canada Courtesy: Chris Dorney, Parsons Brinckerhoff

30 In summary,

31 Identify critical performance measures Identify critical assets in the network Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Climate Adaptation Planning Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Asset A Asset B Asset C Identify affected highway agency functions Asset X Network Functions