Climate Resilient Infrastructure

Transcription

1

2 Outline 1. Applying climate change science 2. Impacts to infrastructure 3. Adaptation solutions 4. Decision making support

3 Applying Climate Change Science

4 Climate Change Recent Trends

5 Why do we need climate models?

6 Ocean Atmosphere coupled General Circulation Models

7 Increase in Mean Now Probability of occurrence Cold Average Hot Number of days with maximum temperature Cold Hot Extremes (# days)

8 Increase in Mean 2030 Probability of occurrence Cold Average Hot Number of days with maximum temperature Cold Hot Extremes (# days)

9 Increase in Mean 2070 Probability of occurrence Cold Average Hot Number of days with maximum temperature Cold Hot Extremes (# days)

10 Climate Change Impacts Extreme Events Degradation of Materials Resource Demand Health Impacts Long Term Impacts

11 Observed Changes and Local Knowledge East Arhnem Land Climate Change Risk Assessment

12 Climate Change in the Pacific Link to 2min DVD on Dept Climate Change website

13 Impacts to Infrastructure

14 Sensitivity of Materials to Climate Change Impacts Material CO 2 Cyclones & Storms Sea Level Rise Extreme Rainfall & Floods Annual & Max Temp UV Bushfire Drought Concrete M H H M M L M L-M Metals L H H M M L H L Mortar L M M M L L M H Timber L M M M-H M L E L-M Coatings L M L M M H E L Polymers L M L L M H E L L M H E Low Moderate High Extreme

15 40% of Economic Climate Impacts are to Infrastructure Infrastructure Impacted in a Developed Country Buildings Electricity networks Water infrastructure Ports Roads and bridges Communications The economic impact to Developing Countries?

16 Cocos (Keeling) Islands - Climate Risk Assessment World Heritage natural assets Population - 80% Cocos Malay Remote - middle of the Indian Ocean

17 Presentation Title 12/10/2010 Page 17

18 Risk to Infrastructure and Settlement Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Cocos (Keeling) Islands Loss of buildings and facilities New port development Impacts to roads and airport Water security island water lens Power security diesel supply Emergency evacuation Heat waves mental health Loss of significant food species

19 Infrastructure at Risk and Re-settlement Home Island Proposed Re-settlement Home Island

20 Adaptation Solutions

21 Adapting to Climate Change Sustainable infrastructure Early intervention is the best approach for managing climate risk Decreasing ability to influence

22 Integrating Climate Change into the Project Cycle Planning Concept Development Design and Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation USAID and Partner Lead Projects Bridge Failure, December 2, 2006 (Bihar, India) Page 22

23 What are your Design Options? Adjust Design Standards & Guidelines Materials and Technology Selection Adjusting Maintenance Regime Reposition, Built in Mobility, Protection and Accept Loss Melbourne, Hail Storm, April 2010

24 Decision Making Support

25 Decision support for adaptation Infrastructure Operators Which assets are at risk Critical infrastructure services Support to vulnerable areas Noarlunga Railway, South Australia Sanitation Project, Gangtok, Sikkim, India

26 Decision support for adaptation Governments Planning adaptation Adaptive capacity Insurance Adaptation funding structures

27 Cost Benefit Analysis of Adaptation - Techniques Cost Benefit Analysis Settlement/Sector Level Country/Region Level

28 Cost Benefit Analysis Framework Past site events Existing threats Impacts Costs Adaptation options Cost benefit analysis Baseline Data Analysis Climate Change Implications Adaptation Solutions Decision making support for policy and investment Socio-economic factors Climate change forcing Optimising adaptation Figure 1. Key inputs and flow of pilot project

29 Cost Benefit of Adapting to Climate Change Economic model to assess cost and benefit of adapting Optimum scale and size of adaptation options Best timing to implement adaptation Narrabeen Lagoon, Sydney (Department of Climate Change)

30 Adaptation options Adaptation Measure Dimensions (m) Timing Lagoon opening 70.0 width 2035 Lakeside levee 2.7 height 2010 Progress Park levee 2.5 height After 2100 Nareen Creek levee 2.3 height After 2100 Flood awareness Not applicable 2010 Planning control Height not modelled 2010

31 It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change. Charles Darwin

32 Michael Nolan AECOM Associate Director Climate Change