THE FORECAST OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC OF THE ARCTIC MINERAL RESOURCES IN THE WATER AREAS OF RUSSIA TILL 2030: THE NEED FOR THE CARGO AND PROVIDING VESSELS

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1 THE FORECAST OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC OF THE ARCTIC MINERAL RESOURCES IN THE WATER AREAS OF RUSSIA TILL 23: THE NEED FOR THE CARGO AND PROVIDING VESSELS MIKHAIL GRIGORYEV GECON 3 th ARCTIC PASSION SEMINAR March, 28, Helsinki

2 8 PROJECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF MINERAL RESOURCES WITH THE MARITIME SCHEME OF TRANSPORTATION IN THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC 2 Data sources: MNR, MT, FCS, NSRA, companies; analysis of GECON

3 OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THE FREIGHT TRAFFIC OF MINERAL RESOURCES ALONG NSR BY THE MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES The preliminary option of the forecast has been considered at a meeting in August, 27 of the working group "Ensuring ecological safety and rational use of natural resources" of the State commission for the development of the Arctic under the chairmanship of the Minister of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Russian Federation S.E. Donskoy. Participants: representatives of the profile ministries and large oil/gas and mining companies (Lukoil, Novatek, Rosneft, Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Norilsk Nickel and "The first mining company"), administrations of the regions, Administration of the Northern Sea Route, the scientific, consulting and nature protection organizations. The forecast of freight traffic is executed according to two scenarios:. Scenario # (basic): the projects of development of fields approved by the Central Commission on coordination of engineering designs of development of fields of Rosnedra/Ministry of Natural Resources; 2. Scenario #2: assumes additional accounting of statements of the companies. 3

4 2 fact 2 fact 22 fact 23 fact 24 fact 2 fact 26 fact GAIN OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC, MILLION T FREIGHT TRAFFIC, MILLION T THE MAIN SOURCES OF GROWTH OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC ALONG THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE Novoportovskoye, oil Yamal LNG, seasonal export to the east LNG-2, seasonal export to the east Ores, Peschanka (statement of the company) Coal, Tchayka (statement of the company) Scenario 4 Scenario 2 Data sources: MNR, companies; analysis of GECON

5 2 F 2 F 22 F 23 F 24 F 2 F 26 F MILLION TONS OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THE ARCTIC FREIGHT TRAFFIC BY MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES FORECAST OF THE ARCTIC FREIGHT TRAFFIC OF MINERAL RESOURCES Ores, Peschanka (statement of the company) Coal, Tchayka (statement of the company) Ores, Mayskoye LNG, LNG-2 LNG, Yamal LNG Condensate, LNG-2 Condensate, Yamal LNG Condensate, Pelyatkino NSR Scenario NSR Scenario 2 Oil&cond., Novy Port 2 Ores, Norilsk Oil, Prirazlomnaya Oil, Varandey Pechora sea Data sources: MNR, companies; analysis of GECON

6 FORECAST OF NEED FOR NEW CARGO ARCTIC VESSELS CONSTRUCTION Region Pechora Sea Project Navigation Cargo Freight Maximum Volume Shipowner / Operator Number of vessels Deadweight, tt Ice class RMRS Peschanoozerskoye seasonal,2 freight 2* 36, 37 Arc4 Varandey crude oil (assessment) 3 73 Arc6(4) Prirazlomnoye 4.8 Sovcomflot 2 7 Arc6 Construction for Arctic LNG Arc7 freight 2** 2 Arc 4() Gazpromneft Shipping 3 4 Arc7 year-round Sovcomflot Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) %; COSCO % 3 6, Teekay LNG Partners %; China LNG Shipping (CLNG) % + 97 Arc7 + Ob Bay Dynagas 49%; Sinotrans 2,%; China LNG Shipping (CLNG) LNG 2,% Yamal LNG 4 9 Dynagas 2 8 Arc4 Teekay н/д non defined 4 condensate,2 Dynacom 2 43 Arc7 2 Sandibinskoye seasonal crude oil,2 freight 2** 6, 47 Arc4 Enisey Pelyatkinskoye condensate.2 9 Arc7 Norilsk Nikel Norilsk ore concentrate.3 8 Arc7 year-round Chaika coal -3 VostokUgol 7 Arc7 Barents Sea Pavlovskoye ore concentrate.3 Rosatom 33 Arc E.Sib. Sea Pechanka? ore concentrate.7 freight??? Mayskoye seasonal ore concentrate. SASCO+ 3* 8-9 Arc4 * the chartered vessels in navigation of 26 ** the chartered vessels in navigation of 27 3 current construction Kara Sea Novoportovskoye crude oil and condensate Data sources: Rosnedra, extracting and shipping companies; analysis of GECON

7 THIS IS NOT THE END

8 THREE COLORS OF THE PROSPECTS OF THE PROJECTS The forecast of freight traffic of mineral resources includes two groups of projects:. approved by the state, 2. and the statements of the companies. On the basis of what criteria it is possible to evaluate presentability of statements of the companies? 8 MINERAL RESERVES'S SECURITY OF EXPECTED PRODUCTION LEVELS Statements of the companies evaluated resource base doesn't provide expected volumes of production provide expected volumes of production Projects of development approved by the state READINESS OF TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE operating under construction projected stated not certain operating under construction projected stated not certain operating under construction projected stated not certain

9 MILLION TONS VOSTOKUGOL: COAL TERMINAL AND FREIGHTED VESSELS - ARE NOT ENOUGH Statement by Vostokugol, 27 March Approved project of development, 27 May Production and freight, fact Atomflot contract, 27 December Federal Agency for Mineral Resources, as on January 23, 28:. To forbid coal exploration and production since August, 27; 2. No later than December, 28 to approve the project of work on an exploration; 3. No later than June, 222 to approve the engineering design of mining; 4. To bring the field into development no later than June 3, 224 Bulkers of the partner Nordic Bulk Carriers: 6 Panamax DWT 76 TT and 2 Handymax DWT 44 TT A (Arc 4) ice class (shipping on NSR only in easy ice conditions under conducting of the icebreaker). 9 Data sources: Rosnedra, NSRA, data of the companies; analysis of GECON

10 TRILLION CUBIC METERS YAMAL LNG, ARCTIC LNG 2, ETC. 3 PRODUCTION OF GAS / LNG AND PLANT MAX CAPACITY Yamal Gydan BILLION CUBIC METERS NG / MILLION TONS LNG 2 2 heat and power generation 9.8 MT 7.4 MT 37.2 MT Arctic LNG 2 Gas Prod. Yamal LNG Gas Prod. Arctic LNG 2 LNG Prod. Yamal LNG LNG Prod. Arctic LNG 2 Max Capacity Yamal LNG Max Capacity Gydan boundary YEARS 2 Reserves C C2 D drilled undrilled. 3. Resources C C2 D exploration works are needed Strategy of Novatek, 27: LNG -7 MT by 23 (Yamal LNG, Arctic LNG 2 and 3 traines) Yamal LNG Arctic LNG 2 reserve of the LNG projects C C2 D Gydan boundary LNG of Yamal LNG of Gydan Data source: Rosnedra, NOVATEK; analysis of GECON

11 CONCLUSION When determining need for the cargo and providing vessels (including icebreaking providing) it is necessary to consider: source of the forecast of freight traffic of the project: the approved plan or the statement of the company; sufficiency of reserves for ensuring production levels; security of the project with vessels of the corresponding ice classes. Condition of relevance of assessment is monitoring of development of the project.

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