Global/Regional Short-term Hydrological Forecasting System

Transcription

1 Global/Regional Short-term Hydrological Forecasting System Hydrologic Research Center San Diego, California, USA

2 Technology Transfer Program Climate Science HRC since 1993 Rainfall Evapotranspiration Remote Sensing Runoff Production Landforms Convection Soil Moisture Hydrologic Science Estimation Theory Risk Theory Statistics Management TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER Economics Computer Science Instrumentation Training Other Disciplines Flash Flood Warning Water Resources Management Sustainable Development Applications

3 Elements of the Tech Transfer Process Elements of the Tech Transfer Process Scales of Variability Physics of Process Interaction Dynamics of Flow Data Assimilation Characterization of Uncertainty System Implementation Training for Sustainability Information Dissemination System Validation Maintenance Prototype System Design DISCIPLINARY MULTI-DISCIPLINARY PROJECT RESOURCES

4 INFORM PROJECT EXAMPLE Major Resevoirs in Nothern California 41.5 Sacramento River Degrees North Latitude Trinity Trinity River Trinity Shasta Pit River Feather River Oroville N. Fork Ame rican River Application Area Folsom Degrees West Longitude Elevation (meters)

5 INFORM SYSTEM COMPONENTS ATM DATA ATM FORECASTS Adjustments HYDROLOGIC MODEL Ensemble Forecast DECISION MODEL MANAGER Release Schedule ASSESSMENT SYSTEM Management Benefits

6 Folsom Sub-System NOAA USACOE USBR CADWR CEC SAFCA

7 Results of Feasibility Results of Feasibility ENERGY VALUE (M$) OPERATIONAL CLIMATOLOGY CGCM1-CANADA ECHAM-GERMANY PERFECT SPILLAGE (BCF) 2 0 OPERATIONAL CLIMATOLOGY CGCM1-CANADA ECHAM-GERMANY PERFECT MAXIMUM FLOOD DAMAGE (M$) OPERATIONAL CLIMATOLOGY CGCM1-CANADA ECHAM-GERMANY PERFECT

8 FLASH FLOOD AMERICAN METEOROLOGIC SOCIETY (AMS): A flood that rises and falls quite rapidly with little or no advance warning, usually as the result of intense rainfall over a relatively small area WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO): A flood of short duration with a relatively high peak discharge

9 Diagnostic Studies

10 Hydrologic Forecasting DHM 800 FLOW (CMS) DHM: Distributed Hydrologic Model Hours beginning 11/13/1993

11 DHM Uncertainties: Calibration; Channel Routing Diagnostic Measure R Q Q Q = 2Q Q 90 : 90 th percentile flow Q 10 : 10 th percentile flow Q 50 : Median flow Note: At time for which R Q is maximum for each event E[R Q ]: Average over all events in each basin E[R Q ] <0.5 for A>150 km2 - Parametric Uncertainty E[R Q ] <0.5 for A>750 km2 - Parametric and Rainfall Uncertainty

12 FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE Flash Flood Guidance (in/hr) Gridded Rainfall (in/hr) Excess Flooding (in/hr) Flash Flood Guidance (FFG): The amount of actual rainfall of a given duration, required to generate bankfull flows at the outlet of a basin, under certain initial soil moisture conditions. Threshold Runoff (Thresh-R): The amount of effective rainfall (runoff) of a given duration, capable of causing bankfull flows at the outlet of a basin.

13 DHM and FFG DHM FFG Tool for short and long term forecasting of floods Produces entire hydrographs Difficult to ingest local precipitation information Awkward for local forecasters to make adjustments Diagnostic tool useful for flash flood occurrence diagnosis and short term prediction Concerns bankfull flows Readily ingests local precipitation information Local forecaster adjustments easy Promotes Close Collaboration of Hydrologists with Meteorologists

14 CENTRAL AMERICA FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SYSTEM Technical System for Flash Flood Guidance Generation Links to Remotely Sensed and On Site Data System Products Dissemination Training and Cooperation Activities with Users

15 NOAA NESDIS SATELLITE PRODUCT FOR CENTRAL AMERICA 6 May 2002 ; 19:15 LST Infrared Rainfall (6-hourly example)

16 SAT RAINFALL BIAS ADJUSTMENT Log-Bias Definition βt = n N g j= 1 N g j= 1 Rg (, t j) Rr (, t j) State-Space β z = β + W t+ 1 t t+ 1 = β + v t+ 1 t+ 1 t+ 1 ˆ β Log-Bias Recursion R t+ 1 ˆ t+ 1 t+ 1 = βt+ 1+ z t+ 1 Pt+ 1+ Rt+ 1 Pt+ 1+ R t+ 1 Pt + 1 St Q 2 t+ 1 = t + 2 t+ 1 t+ 1 t+ 1 Pt St + σ t+ 1 P ( ) Qˆ Qˆ ( r ) P R Q

17 GIS Analysis of Central America R = Predicted vs. Observed Values Dependent variable: ln(topwidth) m Observed Values Predicted Values 95% confidence

18 Guidance to Warning/Watch t-hr FFG VALUE at T Comparison Case: t-hr FFG < = rainfall estimate t-hr rainfall estimate for period: T, T+t Case: t-hr FFG > rainfall estimate ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WARNING/WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOT WARRANTED

19 CAFFG Components THRESHOLD RUNOFF MM/HR BASIN AREA: KM 2 Hydromet Data Derived Iowa Oklahoma System Derived

20 Soil Moisture Model d(() θ t θw ) ZT = rt () et () qt () bt () g() t dt 0.50 Climate Division 71 u () t = q() t + b() t c ; θ( t) θw < θs θw st () = rt () ; θ() t θw θs θw θ() t θ f K = Ks θs θ f 2α + 3 ; θ θ( t) θ f s Soil Moisture g() t µ b() t Obs 71 Model =

21 CA Runoff Validation Sites

22 Soil Moisture Model Validation

23 Threshold Runoff Honduras Belize Honduras 3-hour threshold runoff (mm) (mm/ 3-hr) 5-10 (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) Belize 3-hour Threshold runoff (mm) (mm/ 3-hr) 5-10 (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) N N W E W E S S

24 Depth Integrated Soil Moisture Climatology: January February March April May June Honduras (February) Soil Moisture (%) July August September October November December

25 REAL TIME SYSTEM PRODUCTS Type Catchment Rainfall: hour and km 2 Catchment FFG: hour and km 2 Soil Moisture Estimates: 6-hourly and km 2 Format Text Digital Maps Internet Dissemination Regional Center Telephone;Fax ; Internet National Meteorological Hydrological Centers Telephone;Fax ; Internet Response Agencies

26 CAFFG Sample Regional Products Central America Flash Flood Guidance System 6-Hourly Soil Moisture - Date: 15 May Z 6-HOUR SOIL SATURATION RATIO N W E S

27 CAFFG Sample Regional Products Central America Flash Flood Guidance System 3-Hour FFG - Date: 15 May Z 3HR FFG COLOR TABLE (mm) (mm/ 3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) N W E S

28 CAFFG Sample Regional Products Central America Flash Flood Guidance System 3-Hour MAP - Date: 15 May Z 3-HOUR MAP (mm) (mm/ 3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) (mm/3-hr) N W E S

29 TRAINING AND COOPERATION Training: System Technical Basis Maintenance Interpretation of Guidance Products Hands-on training of personnel who will operate the system Workshops for NMHS and Response Agency personnel Cooperation: Assist NHMSs to develop protocol for issuing warnings based on flash flood guidance Assist NMHSs and Response Agencies to develop protocol for dissemination, receipt and interpretation of warning information to appropriate users within countries Assist NMHSs and Response Agencies to develop evaluation plans for system utility

30 Real-Time Validation Procedure Trainees at HRC: Rosario Alfaro IMN (Instituto Meteorologico Nacional) Costa Rica Lorena Soriano SNET (Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales) El Salvador Procedure: Daily communication with Country Agencies to receive community information regarding local flooding

31 Real-Time CAFFG Validation Panama Evaluación del riesgo de inundación correspondiente al a las 18 Z válido a las 00 Z del Clasificación de cuencas No hay dato Inundación o inundación inminente Posible inundación No hay riesgo de inundación Flooding in the Panama Canal Basin verified by local TV news. Flooding time at the airport was reported at approximately 9 p.m. local time. N W E Kilometers S

32 Real-Time CAFFG Validation Costa Rica Evaluación del riesgo de inundación correspondiente al 06/10/04 a las 00Z No datos Cr_basin_delineation_dd.shp Inundacion o inundacion inminente Posible inundacion No hay riesgo de inundacion N IMN (Instituto Meteorologico Nacional) in Costa Rica confirmed by that flooding occurred in the Central Pacific area sometime between afternoon and evening Kilometers W S E

33 Real-Time CAFFG Validation El Salvador Evaluación del Riesgo de Inundación para el 07/10/04 válido a las 03 Z con la corrida de las 00Z No dato Clasificación de Cuencas Inundación o inundación inminente Posible inundación No hay riesgo de inundación SNET confirmed flooding in San Salvador, La Libertad and San Miguel sometime during the afternoon and evening hours N Kilometers W S E

34 Initial Validation Statistics for Flash Flood Occurrence Country Cases H FA M Guatemala 2 2 Costa Rica 4 4 El Salvador Panama 1 1 Honduras Belize 0 Nicaragua 0 TOTAL TOTAL %

35 HRC Contributing Staff Theresa Carpenter, Hydrologic Engineer Konstantine Georgakakos, Hydrometeorologist Nick Graham, Climate Scientist Eylon Shamir, Hydrologist Jason Sperfslage, Systems Programmer Steve Taylor, Hydrologic Scientist Corinne Rice, Administrative and Logistical Support

36 CAFFG Sponsors Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) US Agency for International Development (USAID) U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)