Modeling framework for water resources management under uncertain conditions: a case study

Transcription

1 Milestone Workshop 11 April 213, Nogales AZ Modeling framework for water resources management under uncertain conditions: a case study NOAA Climate and Societal Interactions Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) Water Resource Management Water Resources Research Center, UA Hydrologic Research Center (HRC), San Diego Eylon Shamir, Eshamir@hrc-lab.org Hydrologic Research Center High Bluff Drive suite 255 San Diego, CA 9213 Tel: (858)

2 Hydrologic Research Center San Diego The Hydrologic Research Center is a public benefit nonprofit organization. HRC s goal is to help bridge the gap between scientific research and applications for the solution of important societal problems that involve water.

3 Objectives of NOAA (SARP) Project 1. Develop water resources decision support modeling framework that can address future climate uncertainties 2. Increase stakeholders capacity to adapt water planning and management to future climate uncertainties 3. Establish transferability of the modeling approach and capacity building approach

4 Discussion points Climate variability in the Santa Cruz River Modeling framework to deal with uncertain future and large variability Case study Water Resources Management & Planning Pumpage Projection Climate Projection GW Threshold Modeling Framework Incorporate uncertainty Microbasins Reliability performance

5 Rainfall (mm/season) Seasonal Precipitation high variability 4 35 Winter Summer Nogales Gauge Avg. Summer ~1 inches Avg. Winter ~5 inches Years

6 Nogales Flow (1 Acre-feet) Nogales Flow (1 Acre-feet) USGS Streamflow Gauge nr. Nogales, AZ 9 SUMMER [July-September] 9 WINTER [November-March] Avg. 78 ac-ft Years Years Avg. 74 ac-ft

7 Surface Groundwater interaction in the Microbasins

8 Rainfall Modeling Framework to deal with uncertainty Ensemble of Likely rainfall & streamflow scenarios Flow Water consumption Time Threshold Well Aquifer Results: Risk Analysis of pumpage & GW

9 Modeling Framework for Water Resources Planning Rainfall Scenarios Streamflow Aquifer Withdrawal Pumpage Groundwater recharge Groundwater Thresholds Aquifer (microbasins) Management schemes

10 Arizona Department of Water Resources Demand and Supply Assessment Santa Cruz Active Management Area, July 212 (DRAFT) Annual Pumping (Acre-Feet) Potrero Microbasins

11 Annual Pumping (Acre-Feet) Municipal Pumpage Projection Arizona Department of Water Resources Demand and Supply Assessment Santa Cruz Active Management Area, July 212 (DRAFT) Downstream Projection Microbasins Potrero

12 GROUNDWATER STREAM RECHARGE The Natural System Q 1 ET 1 I 1 Q 2 = Q 1 -I 1 Santa Cruz River P 1 Buena Vista (274 ac/ft) Kino Springs (42 ac/ft) Highway 82 (591 ac/ft) Guevavi 795 (ac/ft) STREAMFLOW RAINFALL

13 Characterizing uncertainty using Monte Carlo Posterior Distribution Initial Distribution Time

14 Santa Cruz Active Management Area (SC-AMA) SC-AMA Mission The mission of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area is to manage all water resources in the AMA conjunctively, to assure a reliable water supply for current and future uses, and to protect aquatic and riparian habitat while sustaining a healthy economy. SC-AMA Goal The management goal of the Santa Cruz AMA is to maintain a safe-yield condition in the active management area and to prevent local water tables from experiencing long term declines.

15 Aquifer Thresholds Depth to Water (DTW) Depth to Water (DTW) Thresholds Average depth of water table from the land surface 1 ft - Storage of ~ 4, ac-feet 2 ft - Storage of ~ 7,3 ac-feet 3 ft - Storage of ~ 11, ac-feet Groundwater flow model of the Santa Cruz Active Management Area Microbasins International Boundary to Nogales International Wastewater Treatment Plant Santa Cruz County, Arizona ADWR Modeling Report No. 15. Erwin 27 Guevavi Hy 82 Kino Springs Q 1 ET 1 I 1 Q 2 = Q 1 -I 1 Santa Cruz River Buena Vista P 1 Kino Springs (42 ac/ft) Buena Vista (274 ac/ft) Highway 82 (591 ac/ft) Guevavi 795 (ac/ft) 7216 cells 66x66 ft

16 Rainfall Scenarios Streamflow Historic & Future Rainfall Scenarios Three Pumpage Scenarios: 2, 3, and 5 Acre-Feet per year Pumpage 3 DTW Thresholds: 1, 2 & 3 ft Groundwater recharge Groundwater Threshold Aquifer (microbasins) Management schemes

17 Climate Change Projection

18 Rainfall (mm/season) Climate Projection Regional Climate Model WRF-Max Planck Institute model Rainfall (mm/season) MPI Summer [July-September] Seasonal 1-Yr Moving Avg. Tercile Boundaries MPI Winter [November-March] Seasonal 1-Yr Moving Avg. Tercile Boundaries Years Years WRF-MPI A2 scenario clear reduction in summer inconclusive winter

19 Storm Inter Arrival (days) Storm Inter Arrival (days) What is projected to change in the Summers? 1. Frequency of dry and wet summers will increase and decrease, respectively 2. Dry summer will become dryer as the frequency of events will decrease 35 3 DRY SUMMERS MPI MPI DRY WINTERS 35 3 SUMMER MPI MPI WINTER Cumulative Distribution Cumulative Distribution.5 1

20 Weather generation model modification in order to reflect the projection of the Climate regional model(wrf-mpi) Summer Rainfall (mm/season) 6 5 Historical Model Future Model MPI MPI Data KS: KS:.39 Projection Cumulative Distribution.5 1

21 A Case Study - Two rainfall input scenarios: Historic and Future - (an ensemble of 1 realizations of hourly record each extends for 62 years) - Three Depth to Water (DTW) threshold scenarios: 1ft, 2ft, and 3ft. - Three Pumpage scenarios: 2, 3, and 5 acre-feet per year Total of 18 runs.

22 Example of Uncertainty characterization of the Scenario 1 realizations each 62 years long HISTORIC Threshold DTW 2 ft Pumpage 3 ac-ft/yr FUTURE Threshold DTW 2 ft Pumpage 3 ac-ft/yr Range : acft/yr 9% Percent of Time pumpage is Equal or Exceeded 9% Percent of Time pumpage is Equal or Exceeded

23 Microbasins Reliability of Pumpage (Ac-ft/yr) 3 Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 3 ac-ft Median Estimates HIST. DTW 1ft HIST. DTW 2ft 5 HIST. DTW 3ft FUTURE. DTW 1ft FUTURE. DTW 2ft FUTURE. DTW 3ft Percent of Percent Time pumpage of Time is Equal Equal or or Exceeded

24 Microbasins Reliability of Pumpage (Ac-ft/yr) Microbasins Reliability of Pumpage (Ac-ft/yr) 5 Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 5 ac-ft 2 Varied Depth To Water (DTW), Annual Pumpage 2 ac-ft HIST. DTW 1ft 1 HIST. DTW 2ft HIST. DTW 3ft 5 FUTURE. DTW 1ft FUTURE. DTW 2ft FUTURE. DTW 3ft Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded Percent of Time pumpage is Equal or Exceeded 6 HIST. DTW 1ft 4 HIST. DTW 2ft HIST. DTW 3ft 2 FUTURE. DTW 1ft FUTURE. DTW 2ft FUTURE. DTW 3ft Percent of Time Equal or Exceeded Percent of Time pumpage is Equal or Exceeded

25 Percent of Time Microbasins below Threshold (fraction) Expected time for the microbasins to be below threshold 1.8 Historical Precipitation 3 ac-ft/yr Buena Vista Kino Springs Hy 82 Guevavi DTW 1ft DTW 2ft DTW 3ft 1 Future Precipitation 3 ac-ft/yr DTW 1ft DTW 2ft DTW 3ft

26 Percent of Time Microbasins below Threshold (fraction) Percent of Time Microbasins below Threshold (fraction) Expected time for the microbasins to be below threshold 1.8 Historical Precipitation 2 ac-ft/yr Buena Vista Kino Springs Hy 82 Guevavi 1.8 Historical Precipitation 5 ac-ft/yr Buena Vista Kino Springs Hy 82 Guevavi DTW 1ft DTW 2ft DTW 3ft DTW 1ft DTW 2ft DTW 3ft 1 Future Precipitation 2 ac-ft/yr 1 Future Precipitation 5 ac-ft/yr DTW 1ft DTW 2ft DTW 3ft DTW 1ft DTW 2ft DTW 3ft

27 Proxies Derived from Tree rings

28 ANNOMALIES Tree Rings: Griffin s Reconstruction using SPI-NOAA data ANNUAL 1-Year Moving Avg. WINTER October-April SUMMER June-August YEARS

29 Anomalies Sequence of dry winters and summers Years The chance for such an event to occur is.25^6 = 1 in 496

30 Anomalies Recent Tree Ring Record Years

31 Collaborators Sharon Megdal, Susanna Eden and Jacob Prietto and Karletta Chief. WRRC - UA Christopher Castro, Carlos Carrillo and Hsin-I Chang, Atmospheric Science - UA Keith Nelson, Frank Corkhill, AZDWR Konstantine Georgakakos, Nick Graham and Rochelle Graham, HRC Dan Griffin, Dave Meko LTRR UA Project s Technical Advisory Committee: Mike Lacey AZDWR; Alejandro Barcenas City of Nogales; Greg Kornrumph SRP; and James Leenhouts, USGS.