AWCS 2016 Flood Session: Towards IFI-AP - ICHARM 10th anniversary - Flood Early Warning System (Presentations & Discussion)

Transcription

1 AWCS 2016 Flood Session: Towards IFI-AP - ICHARM 10th anniversary - Flood Early Warning System (Presentations & Discussion) 45 minutes March 1, 2016

2 Flood Early Warning System session - Agenda - Presentations (7 min. x 5 = 35 min.) 1. Purpose of this session and Development of ICHARM Flood Early Warning System by Mr. Yoichi Iwami, Chief Researcher, ICHARM 2. by Mr. Chu Ishida, Acting Senior chief Officer, JAXA 3. Contribution of UNESCO Project in improving Flood Early warning System of Pakistan by Mr. Atif Irshad, Meteorologist, Flood Forecasting Division, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) 4. Toward application of GSMaP for the flood early warning in Asian countries by Dr. Kumiko Tsujimoto, assistant professor, University of Tokyo (UT) 5. Flood management in Myanmar and progress of SATREPS by Dr. Win Win Zin, Associate professor, Yangon Technological University (YTU) Discussion (10 min.)

3 1. Purpose of this session 2. Development of ICHARM models for Flood EWS By Yoichi Iwami Chief Researcher

4 Consideration points for necessary activities 1. How to mitigate damages caused by water-related disasters increasing and intensifying recently considering actual situation/challenges in the regions? (e.g. limitation of data, budget and capacity) 2. How to build and provide appropriate hydrological/hydraulic models & methodologies especially for EWS and flood disaster analysis? 3. How to support Local Practices with Capacity Building? 4

5 Comprehensive flood management (1) Structural measures (2) Land use management (retaining water in the basins) (3) Non-structural measures River channel improvement Constructing dams, retarding basins Conservation of wetland, farmlands, ponds Permeable pavements and seepage pits Flood early warning system Flood fighting Promoting awareness Hydrological runoff/inundation simulation models to analyse real situation to be occurred

6 Flood Management Cycle <Preparation for mitigation Flood Hazard Map Flood evacuation drill Check and maintenance of levee Flood insurance <During flood time> Disaster Response Operations Flood forecasting and early warning Levee protection (Flood fighting) Evacuation order Rescue and relief Provision of shelter Integrated Flood Management should be based on scientific approach with reliable simulation model Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (investment) River improvement, flood control structures with effect estimation Designation of flood prone area Urban planning and land use management Raise the height of housing lot Build back better Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction Disaster rehabilitation Epidemic prevention Rebuilding houses Record the lessons Investigation into the cause of disaster

7 Usefulness of forecasting for flood mitigation Observation data Forecasted information Lead time for taking mitigation actions

8 Purpose of this session 1) To share information on challenges & solutions for establishing Flood Early Warning Systems by using advanced science and technology 2) To promote international cooperation for setting up operational Flood Early Warning Systems with proper capacity building

9 Development of ICHARM models for flood early warning system

10 Challenges in developing countries 1) Insufficient observed data (past and real time data) Difficulty of flood forecasting, assessment of risk and future planning Solutions Using Global data from satellite with in-situ data putting into distributed model 2) Limitation of budget Difficulty of developing infrastructures, establishing a flood forecasting system 3) Need for capacity building Difficulty of maintaining and operation of the system Developing and providing free software Providing training to get necessary knowledge and skills for operation and upgrading the system 10

11 input Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) Flood EWS for insufficient observed basin (free software) Global data: topography, land use, etc. Import satellite rainfall and ground-gauged data Courtesy of JAXA Model creation Run-off analysis by PWRI distributed tank model Surface model Output: River discharge, Water level, Rainfall distribution Aquifer model River course model Evacuate from dangerous areas Judge by River management authorities Alert message by and on the display for river management authorities Discharge reaches warning level 11

12 ICHARM RRI (Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation) Model Input Rainfall Subsurface + Surface 1D Diffusion in River Free software Output Discharge DEM W. Level Land Cover Cross Sec. 2D Diffusion in Catchment Vertical Infiltration Inundation Two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously The model deals with slopes and river channels separately At a grid cell in which a river channel is located, the model assumes that both slope and river are positioned within the same grid cell Sayama, T. et al.: Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Analysis of Pakistan Flood 2010 at the Kabul River Basin, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57(2), pp , 2012.

13 ICHARM Indus-IFAS for UNESCO-Pakistan project INPUT DATA CHALLENGES: Lack of transboundary data Null-Low raingauges network density Uncertainty on snowmelt INPUT DATA : Rainfall data (ground- gauges, GSMaP, forecasted) Real-time observed discharges 3/3/2016 ICHARM JAXA PMD JAXA, SUPARCO Inundation area by RRI (Phase1: ) [m] FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING OUTPUT DATA: Rainfall distribu-tion maps Hydrographs at specified locations Inundation extents in mid-low Indus

14 ICHARM RRI simulation for UNESCO-Pakistan project July 20 Sept 20, 2010 Sukkur Discharge at Barrages PMD Rain gauge T : Date 0 Jul Aug 1 42 Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep 20

15 ICHARM Capacity Building in UNESCO-Pakistan project ( ) 6 Pakistani officers graduating from ICHARM/GRIPS MSc Short-training course in Japan of 11 Senior Managers from Pakistan ICHARM participation to international Workshop and Training in Pakistan 3/3/2016 Indus-IFAS training in Pakistan

16 ICHARM established History of IFAS development Indus flood Developing in Kelantan /Dungun in Malaysia (SATREPS) and Thai Binh in Viet Nam(JAXA-SAFE) IFAS ver.1 developed Applied to Solo (ADB) Auto-IFAS developed for real time operation IFAS ver.2 developed with geo data input Installed into Indus (UNESCO) & Cagayan (ADB) with corrected GSMaP IFAS training more than 1,100 participants from 53 countries, now Developing Parameter optimization Snow melt function added

17 ICHARM established History of RRI development Chao Phraya flood Developing in Kalu river in Sri Lanka (JAXA- SAFE) RRI developed (Sayama) & emergency analysis in Chao Phraya RRI EWS established in Chao Phraya (JICA) Installing & training of RRI in Myanmar (ADB) RRI-GUI developed RRI is also useful for inundation risk assessment Installed into Indus (UNESCO)

18 Summary 1. ICHARM has developed flood runoff/inundation forecasting models (IFAS/RRI) for insufficiently gauged region by using global data. 2. For setting up operational Flood EWS, not only model development but also capacity building are very important. 3. ICHARM would like to continuously enhance and contribute to strengthening of flood management in the region.

19 Thank you for attention