Energy Low Emission Development Strategies in Asia: A Regional Overview and Experiences from Thailand

Transcription

1 Energy Low Emission Development Strategies in Asia: A Regional Overview and Experiences from Thailand 29 October 2014 Presenters: Alexander Ochs - Worldwatch Institute S.S. Krishnan - Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy Beni Suryadi - ASEAN Centre for Energy Bundit Limmeechokchai -Thammasat University

2 Welcome & Introduction Alexander Ochs Worldwatch Institute LEDS-EWG Chair

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5 1. Welcome & Introduction Alexander Ochs, Worldwatch Institute, LEDS-EWG Chair 2. Introduction to the LEDS Asia Regional Platform and the Importance of Energy in Asia S.S. Krishnan, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, LEDS-EWG Co-Chair for Asia 3. Key Low-Emission Energy Developments in Asia Beni Suryadi, ASEAN Centre for Energy 4. Learning from Thailand s Clean Energy Strategy 5. Q&A Bundit Limmeechokchai, Thammasat University 6. Survey Outline

6 LEDS Global Partnership International initiative aiming to harness the collective knowledge and resources of governments, donors, international organizations, and practitioners in scaling up and strengthening implementation of climate-resilient low emission development around the world. Launched in 2011, the LEDS GP now catalyzes action and collaboration across more than 120 countries and international organizations.

7 Energy Working Group (EWG) The EWG promotes low-emission and climateresilient development in the energy sector through a work program focused on learning and information exchange, sharing best practices, advisory services, and providing enhanced opportunities for coordination and collaboration. Objectives Strengthen support for LEDS in energy sector Mobilize capacity and advance peer-to-peer learning and collaboration on low emission energy development Improve coordination of energy-related LEDS at the country, regional, and global levels

8 Energy Working Group Activities Current work plan, highlights Webinars: Best Practices in Gathering and Using Energy Data for LEDS Development (April) Energy LEDS in Asia (Oct.) Energy LEDS in Africa (Nov./Dec.) Energy LEDS in LAC (Nov./Dec.) Events: LEDS GP Annual Event, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (August): - Energy Peer Learning Session For African Countries - Energy Sector Strategies and Policy Portfolios Session LEDS LAC Regional Forum work plan, highlights: Energy & Development World Atlas Energy Toolkit Energy Data Crowdsourcing Project Energy LEDS Training Camp Energy Policy Development Group

9 Asia LEDS Partnership S.S. Krishnan LEDS-EWG Co-Chair for Asia

10 Asia LEDS Partnership Importance of Energy in Asian economies Economic growth and rural development are overarching national goals Affordable, reliable, clean energy is critical to maintain pace of inclusive development Conventional energy sources are limited and require large investments and natural resources Achieving inclusive development requires acceleration of clean energy in developing economies

11 Asia LEDS Partnership Importance of Energy in Asian economies Clean energy provides a pathway for socio-economic development Challenges to clean energy deployment include: Capacity building and awareness Financing mechanisms Lessons and Best practices from similar economies Tools for estimating baselines and policy success Power, Transport, Industry, Buildings, Agriculture sectors need nuanced policies with cross cutting analysis

12 Asia LEDS Partnership LEDS Energy Working Group Activities Peer Learning, Sustainable Energy Webinars, Best Practice Inventory, LEDS Energy Toolkit Identify and disseminate tools, models, approaches and best practices on clean energy approaches Foster information exchange, coordination, and collaboration in Asia among programs and countries Promote capacity building of practitioners in designing and implementing energy policies for LEDS and green growth Build awareness of and support for energy related LEDS development and implementation across Asia by inspiring and catalyzing leaders of change.

13 Key Energy Developments in Asia Beni Suryadi ASEAN Centre for Energy

14 Overview Trend in Asia

15 Energy & Carbon Intensity in Asia

16 Energy Consumption in ASEAN By Sector: Energy consumption increased at an annual rate of 7.0% from 213 MTOE in 2002 to 390 MTOE in 2011 The other sector: residential and commercial, had the fastest growth at an average annual rate of 8.7% resulting to its increased share of total final energy consumption.

17 Energy Consumption in ASEAN By Fuel Type: Energy consumption of others which is mostly biomass was the fastest growing at 13.9% per annum Oil remained as the dominant fuel in final energy consumption but has slower growth rate at 4.1%.

18 The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) July 2009: : ASEAN Ministers launched the third series of implementation plan of the ASEAN Vision 2020 as prescribed in the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2015, named as APAEC , to serve as the blueprint for ASEAN cooperation in the field of energy for the period under the theme Bringing Policies to Actions: Towards a Cleaner, more Efficient and Sustainable ASEAN Energy Community, to support the realization of the ASEAN Economic Community towards 2015 and beyond. Targets outlined on Low Emission Strategies: Goal of reducing regional energy intensity of at least 8% by 2015 based on 2005 level. To achieve a collective target of 15% for regional renewable energy in the total power installed capacity by 2015.

19 National Targets on EE&C and RE to Support APAEC Member States Energy Efficiency Saving Goal Renewable Energy Targets Brunei Attain 25% reduction of energy intensity from 2005 level by MW of solar PV capacity by 2030 Cambodia Reduce final energy consumption by 10% in all sectors Indonesia Reduce final energy consumption by 1% per year from the BAU scenario Solar photovoltaic (1.5 MW), Biomass Gasification (87 kw), Micro-hydro (500 kw) By 2025, the energy mix of Indonesia should contain: 5% biofuels, % geothermal, 2.6% hydro, 0.03% wind, 0.74 biomass Laos Reduce final energy consumption by 10% in all sectors Development of hydro projects for domestic use and export. Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam (i) Reduction of final energy consumption in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors by 10% from 2011 to 2030, (ii) Reduce final energy consumption of the transportation sector by 1.39 ktoe in 2030 by modal and fuel switching from gasoline to electricity rail transport and electric vehicles Installed renewable energy capacity by 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal Solid Waste, Biofuels to displace 5% of diesel in road transport (i) Reduce primary energy consumption by 5% in 2020 and 8% by 2030 (i) 15%-20% share of renewable energy to total installed electricity compared to BAU, (ii) Improve energy efficiency in all end-use by 16% by generating capacity, (ii) Displace 8% conventional liquid fuels with biofuels 2030 in road transport Reduce final energy consumption by 10% in all sectors (i) Reduce energy intensity by 20% by 2020 and by 35% by 2030 from the 2005 level (ii) Cap CO2 emissions from combustion of fuel at 63 Mt- CO2 in Save 25% of total energy in 2030 relative to BAU Reduce energy consumption by 3%-5% by 2010 and between 5%-8% by Target by 2030: ~ 1,500 MW of new geothermal capacity, ~ 2,100 MW of new hydro capacity, ~950 MW of new wind capacity, ~71 MW of new solar PV capacity, ~102 MW of new biomass capacity, Displace 15% of diesel and 20% of diesel and 20% of gasoline with biofuels Solar energy to take a 5% share of the country s power generation mix. Install 6,329 MW of various RE electricity generating facilities, Biofuels to displace 12.2% of transport energy demand RE Targets by 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Small Hydro, 400 MW biomass

20 Expected CO 2 Reduction from National Targets 24% reduction in CO 2 by 2030 is expected under Alternative Policy Scenario (APS), compare to Business as Usual Scenario (BA) as a result of the energy efficiency and renewable energy development action plans in National level to support regional aspiration. This is based on member countries fulfilling their current commitments to reduce the fuel consumption by end-users and power generation, as well as install more carbon free or carbon neutral generation sources, such as nuclear, biomass, wind and solar power facilities.

21 ASEAN Current Results Reached about 0.34 toe/million 2005 USD in 2010, Energy Intensity in 2011 back on the same level of Renewable energy total installed capacity in the ASEAN increased significantly from 24, MW in 2006 to 39, MW in 2011.

22 Key Findings As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, energy consumption and CO 2 emission in ASEAN as a region will growth very fast, put a pressure on energy security and environmental stability. If current energy (fossil fuel) production levels in the region do not increase - the region will have to source out this additional demand from outside the region, or need to tap more on its potential on renewable energies which are abundantly available through the region. Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low-carbon technologies and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in power generation - would be needed to reduce carbon intensity and enhance energy security.

23 Next Step: Development of the 4 th ASEAN Energy Outlook To be presented for the endorsement of ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in 2015 in Malaysia. APS will utilize the full potential of the renewable energy resources and EE&C action plants in the region under the energy market integration to reach the potentially maximum role of renewable energy in energy supply and reduction of Energy Intensity. References to (i) clearly define a legal and policy framework to promote RE and EE&C into sustainable development strategy; (ii) strengthening research and development on RE and EE&C technology appropriate to the ASEAN region; (iii) continue studies on RE and EE&C market and provide funding for promotion of environmentally friendly green energy.

24 Learning from Thailand s Clean Energy Strategy Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology Thammasat University

25 Energy in Thailand: Past and Presence Thailand GHG emissions by sectors in 2000 Waste Management, 4.07% Forestry, -3.44% Agriculture & Livestock, 22.64% Energy, 69.57% Industrial Process, 7.15% Source: Thailand s Second National Communication, (ONEP, 2011)

26 Population (Millions) No. of HH (Millions) Gross output (bil. Baht) Thousand USD per Capita National Circumstance: Thailand Population and GDP 70 Population Number of household Services Agriculture Industry Per Capita GDP

27 Energy use (Mtoe) CO 2 emission (Mt-CO 2 ) National Circumstance: Thailand Energy and CO 2 emissions Agriculture Industry Res. & Com. Transportation Agriculture Industry Res. & Com. Transportation Power generation

28 Thailand s Clean Energy Future Thailand s NAMAs: The Ambitious Target 1. Renewable Electricity (AEDP, +25%RE in 2021) 2. Energy Efficiency (EEDP, -25%EI in 2030) 3. Environmental Sustainable Transport System

29 Thailand s NAMAs Mitigation Pledge Thailand will endeavor to lower CO 2 emissions by 20% in 2020 compared to the BAU CO 2 Counter-measures for Thailand s Energy LEDS RE Power: Renewable electricity: Biomass, biogas, hydro, Waste-to-energy, Solar, Wind etc. EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement in Industries, Buildings. Transport: Bio-Fuels, Improving Fuel Economy etc. & Environmental Sustainable Transport System.

30 Thailand s Clean Energy Future Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP25%) 2021 Alternative Energy Target (MW) Energy (GWh) OLD NEW OLD NEW Wind 1,200 1,800 1,576 2,365 Solar PV 2,000 3,000 2,628 3,942 Mini Hydro Pump Storage 1,284-7,873 - Biomass 3,630 4,800 22,259 29,434 Biogas ,153 3,154 - Napier Grass 3,000-21,024 Waste to Energy ,102 New RE TOTAL 9,201 13,927 39,336 63,025

31 Thailand s Clean Energy Future CO 2 Emissions in the BAU and NAMA Roadmap Total CO 2 emissions (kt-co 2 ) 400, , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 BAU 360 Mt 7% or 25 Mt Assessment with Domestic MRV in 2014

32 Thailand s Clean Energy Future Thailand Appropriate GHG Mitigation in %

33 Institutional Framework for Climate Change Policy in Thailand National Committee on Climate Change Policy (NCCC) Sub-committees NCCC members: 1. Prime Minister s Office 2. Ministry of Finance 3. Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives 4. Ministry of Transport and Communications 5. Ministry of Information and Communication Technology Chair Prime Minister 6. Ministry of Energy (DEDE, EPPO) 7. Ministry of Commerce 8. Ministry of Interior 9. Ministry of Science and Technology 10. Ministry of Education 11. Ministry of Public Health 12. Ministry of Industry 13.Bangkok Metropolitan Vice-Chair Minister of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) Administration 14. Office of the National Economics and Social Development Board 15. Bureau of Budget 16. Experts Secretariat Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) ONEP/CCMC (Policy formulation and National Focal Point) TGO (DNA (for CDM) / Technical support and services to project developers)

34 Thailand s Energy LEDS: What Needed? NAMAs MRV

35 Thailand s Energy LEDS: What Needed? MRV of RE Power

36 Thailand s Energy LEDS: What Needed? MRV of EE NAMA

37 Thailand s Post2020 Scenarios Low Emission Pathway and Peak Emission Scenarios 2050BAU 30% 2050LCS 20% Peak CO 2

38 Thailand s Energy LEDS: Key Lessons Learned Co-benefits reveal positive aspects of GHG mitigation. MRV process needs cooperation among related ministries. Abatement costs of actions are identified. It is concluded among Thai stakeholders that the NAMAs action of 7-20% reduction in CO 2 will be unilateral NAMAs. However, MRVs of such actions are required to ensure GHG reduction achievement and transparency. Experiences learned from pre2020 is used in development of post2020 agreement or the intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).

39 Thailand s Energy LEDS: Post2020 Upfront Info (for Thailand s INDC 2030) 1. Baseline Scenario vs Scenario 2. Realistic policy/actions (RE, EE, LCS/LEDS) 3. Projection methodology/modeling (AIM, MARKAL, LEAP etc.) 4. Data sources (Official Statistic Reports, Gov t policies) 5. Sectoral approach for emission/reduction. 6. Integrated modeling will be done for the whole energy system. 7. Land-use and forestry will not be included. 8. Annual GHG reduction until 2030 will be quantified. 9. Double counting of actions will be avoided. 10. Outcome will be transparent Thailand s INDC 2030.

40 Thailand s Energy LEDS: Conclusions Thailand s Energy LEDS will result in transformational changes in both supply side and demand side. To achieve peak target, Thailand needs, i) LEDS Capacity Building, ii) sustainable Feed-in Tariff scheme for renewable electricity, iii) enforcement of Energy Efficiency laws in buildings and industries, iv) co-funding of the LEDS actions. The peak target will not be achieved if they are not planned & implemented in the early stage. The lock-in emissions will happen to Thailand. In addition, M R V of LEDS actions are of necessity.

41 Questions To ask a question, please select the questions pane on your screen and type your question into the textbox.

42 Survey Please take a moment to take this short survey to let us know how we did and where we can improve.

43 Thank you Alexander Ochs, S.S. Krishnan, Beni Suryadi, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Stay tuned for our upcoming energy webinars on leaders in the Latin America & Caribbean and Africa regions!