Principles and challenges of integrated water resources management How a concept can be transferred into practice for coastal arid regions

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1 11 th WSTA Gulf Water Conference, Muscat, Oman Principles and challenges of integrated water resources management How a concept can be transferred into practice for coastal arid regions Dr. Jens Grundmann Technische Universität Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology Co-Authors Schütze, N.; Lennartz, F.; Al-Hattaly, S.; Al-Rawahi, A.; Schmitz, G.H.

2 Outline 1 Coastal regions at risk Eastern Europe Ukraine 2 The IWRM process - Visions and Challenges - Central Asia Mongolia Middle East Oman 3 A Tool for sustainable IWRM in arid Regions Components and technical implementation Latin America Brazil 4 Summary, Conclusion Monitoring APPM Assessment Water Resources Availability South-East Asia Vietnam Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios Water Demand Surface and Subsur- Water supply Agriculture Potential and actual face Water Module Technical System water use Groundwater Module Water-Backbone Irrigation Module Aquifer Pumping Artificial Recharge Water Productivity Robust Simulation of Agriculture Tool of Water Resources System (ANN) Optimisation and Management Tool Management: optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources operative optimal control of the technical system Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy Socio-economic Development Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.

3 1 Coastal regions at risk Example: Batinah Region of Oman excessive groundwater abstraction due to irrigated agriculture Inversion of groundwater s natural gradient (flow direction) Marine saltwater intrusion Saline irrigation water and thus saline soils Destruction of agricultural resources Decreasing farm income & abandoned farms impacts the food security of the country Wadis Bani Kharus, Ma awil, Taww Saline intrusion in coastal areas Future impacts Climate and global change

4 2 The integrated water management process - Vision - IWRM promotes a process for co-ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, considering economic, social and environmental aspects. 1 Economic efficiency in water use: water as a resource which has a value increasing scarcity of water and increasing demands water must be used with maximum possible efficiency 2 Equity: basic right for all people to have access to water of adequate quantity and quality 3 Environmental and ecological sustainability: use by future generations of the same resource. see Dublin-Principles 1992

5 2 The integrated water management process - More specific - Potential management solutions Predictive modeling, Optimization Assessment Pilot sites Resources Impacts / Pressures Monitoring business as usual scenario stakeholder participation Decision Support Objectives Indicator system Evaluation of potential solutions (effectivness,efficiency) Assessment of acceptance (stakeholders) Assessment of uncertainty Implementation Optimal planning and operation Capacity development Awareness Monitoring Follow up Lessons learned Recursion after 6-10 years

6 2 The integrated water management process - Challenges for technical implementation 1 Different sectors and resources different interests and mostly contradicting objectives multi-objective, multiple-decision maker water management problem 2 Decisions support tools which allow for evaluating the outcome of different management options under future conditions and uncertainties Integrated models may help if they are able to portray processes and interactions between sectors and resources reliably and computationally efficient; 3 Best possible management strategies and measures should be developed Optimisation techniques might be helpful but challenging if the number of decision variables increases; 4 Management decisions and derived measures for implementation should be accepted by local people and stakeholders. Participatory approaches can support acceptance and increase awareness.

7 3 A Tool for sustainable IWRM in arid Regions Goals of the IWAS German - Oman cooperation project Development and test of novel, intelligent and tailored solutions for Integrated Water Resources Management in arid regions Wadis Bani Kharus, Ma awil, Taww Objectives Adjustment of water consumption and water availability Development of tailored tools for optimal integrated water management and long-term planning for water quality and quantity Improvement of water use efficiency in irrigated agriculture by novel irrigation scheduling and control techniques Saline intrusion in coastal areas

8 3 A Tool for sustainable IWRM in arid Regions Structure and Submodules APPM Prognosis: Future Climate Scenarios Monitoring Assessment Water Resources Availability Surface and Subsurface Water Module Groundwater Module 1 Robust Simulation Tool of Water Resources System (ANN) Water supply Technical System Water-Backbone Aquifer Pumping Artificial Recharge 2 Water Demand Agriculture Potential and actual water use Irrigation Module Water Productivity of Agriculture 3 Optimisation and Management Tool Management: optimal and sustainable management strategies of water resources operative optimal control of the technical system Planning: Evaluating the effects of planning scenarios for a most beneficial policy Socio-economic Development Decision Making: Objectives, Management Options, Constraints, etc.

9 1 Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Hydrological Processes - Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone P(x,y,t) rainfall ET ETR P(x,y,t) Q i (x,y,t) surface runoff irrigated oases agriculture ET ET ETR Q a Aflaj (3 types) Q w wadi runoff (flash floods) recharge dam for artificial groundwater recharge extraction wells near the coastline irrigated agriculture (most important) Q gwn,m Q inf infiltration Q w,d Q p Q a Q w,d sea Q in Q gwn,w Groundwater model domain Q s saltwater intrusion Sea losses Q lo

10 1 Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Modelling - Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone Three-dimensional density driven groundwater P(x,y,t) flow model for simulating P(x,y,t) rainfall the aquifer behavior ET inclusive ETR salt water intrusion phenomena based on OpenGeoSys (OGS) Kolditz irrigated et al oases agriculture Development of a hydrogeological surface runoff model Q i (x,y,t) of the coastal aquifer for ET the pilot ETR area ET Q w Steady Qstate Aflaj wadi runoff irrigated agriculture a and transient calibration, (3 types) (flash floods) (most important) scenario simulation Walther et al. 2012, 2014 recharge dam for artificial groundwater recharge extraction wells near the coastline Q gwn,m Q inf infiltration Q w,d Q p Q a Q w,d sea Q in Q gwn,w Groundwater model domain Q s saltwater intrusion Sea losses Q lo

11 1 Hadjar mountain Batinah plain Coastal zone Q i (x,y,t) Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Recharge - P(x,y,t) rainfall Q a surface runoff Aflaj (3 types) ET Wadi channel routing with infiltration Q(t) ETR irrigated oases agriculture ET Recharge Q w wadi runoff (flash floods) t Q(t) Recharge dam simulation Dam inflow Philipp ET et al recharge dam for artificial groundwater recharge Wadi channel routing with infiltration; P(x,y,t) free lower boundary t Q(t) Dam outflow extraction wells near the coastline Recharge ETR irrigated agriculture (most important) t QSubsurface gwn,m Runoff Recharge at the mountain front Q in Q inf Groundwater model domain infiltration Q gwn,w Q w,d Q p Q a Q w,d Q s sea saltwater intrusion Sea losses Q lo

12 1 Assessment Tools for Water Resources - Groundwater Modelling: Scenario analysis - To come back to the state of 1970 the simulations yielded a recovery time of around 400 years, if pumping is stopped completely! 12

13 2 Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production - more crop per drop The UN World Water Development Report, 2003 sustainable IWRM requires reducing the amount of water used in Oman s agriculture without reducing food production Higher water productivity

14 2 Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Simulation optimization of irrigation control and scheduling - See paper 39 Al-Dhuhli, Wed, 9:35am

15 2 Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production - Estimation of Crop Water Production Functions - CWPF seasonal applied water Non sustainable range Deficit irrigation Full irrigation Schütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation. In: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136 max WP max Yield

16 2 Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production - Schütze & Schmitz, 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation. In: Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering 136

17 2 Assessment & Planning Tools for Agriculture - Increasing water use efficiency and food production -

18 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Challenges - How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts? 3-dimensional density dependent groundwater flow (Walther et al. 2012, 2014) Crop growth and yield by salty irrigation water Challenges Long simulation times and complexity of models and global optimisation procedures Hugh amount of decision variables Different management objectives contradicting

19 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Methodology - How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts? 3-dimensional density dependent groundwater flow (Walther et al. 2012, 2014) Methodology 1. Development of appropriate surrogate models 2. Decomposition of the optimisation problem 3. Multi-criteria simulation-based optimisation Crop growth and yield by salty irrigation water

20 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - The use of surrogates - How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts? OGS-ANN 2D-CWPF 0.9 Methodology 1. Development of appropriate surrogate models 2. Decomposition of the optimisation problem 3. Multi-criteria simulation-based optimisation

21 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multi-criteria simulation-based Optimization - How can we manage an interacting groundwater - agriculture system sustainably regarding water quantity and quality under uncertain climatic and global impacts? Management objective: Groundwater Management objective: Farmer Long term availability High profit of water resources Contradicting objectives Low costs good water quality High quality products Abstraction < recharge Water with good quality How to find the best compromise between the two objectives? depends on the actual preferences of the decision makers Multicriterial optimisation Evaluation of pareto-optimal solutions

22 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Decomposition of the optimisation problem - Farm 1 (Region 1): Water uptake, Crop pattern, Acreage Farm 2 (Region 2): Water uptake, Crop pattern, Acreage Farm XY (Region XY): Water uptake, Crop pattern, Acreage Multiple-year, multiple-user optimisation hugh amount of decision variables

23 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multi-criteria optimisation framework - Outer optimization of groundwater abstraction rates Inner optimization of agricultural profit

24 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Multi-criteria optimisation framework - Outer optimization of groundwater abstraction rates Inner optimization of agricultural profit

25 3 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems Exemplary Application - Results Szenario: Long term profit Szenario: multi-objective Szenario: Long term sustainability

26 Exemplary Application - Results Farm Optimization (60yrs) OUTPUT Crop pattern Abstraction rates Cultivated acreage Salinity of irrigation water Irrigation schedule crop fraction [%] salinity [ds] Maize - salt-sensitive cash crop & Sorghum - lower priced, but more salt resistant crop Compromise profit and sustainability Increasing salinity Decreasing profits Profit for farmers Salinity of the aquifer Water levels of the aquifer profit [$] Cost benefit analysis for stakeholders

27 Exemplary Application Results Regional Optimization (60yrs) Profit oriented Sustainability oriented

28 Towards a task-specific decision support tool

29 Towards a task-specific decision support tool

30 Towards a task-specific decision support tool Subagadis et al. 2014

31 Towards a task-specific decision support tool Ongoing work: Survey and evaluation of stakeholders views Handling & Mail (67) Face to face interviews (64) STAKEHOLDERS Decision Makers & Water Experts Organizations MRMWR 23 MAF 7 PAEW 19 MECA 5 Research Org. 12 See paper 33 Al-Khatri, Wed, 9:50am Farmers 27 from Barka 37 from Musanah Field of Interest Groundwater 36 Agricultural Water Use 19 Water resources management and planning 30 Surface and subsurface hydrology 8 Environment protection 22 1 September 24 October 2014 Visiting and give Explanation of the research

32 4 Summary and Outlook Complex, interacting water systems require an integrated approach to manage them efficiently and sustainably. The technical challenges of IWRM implementation can be overcome by using predictive integrated process modelling, multi-criteria optimisation and methods of artificial intelligence. Some key issues of the new APPM-Tool for an Integrated Water Resources Management of arid zone were presented. Tailored solutions but in general, tools are transferable. Prototype of a simulation based water management model for managing both water quality and quantity from farm to regional scale. Multi-criteria optimization can provide a tool for decision makers to find sustainable solutions in an environmental, economical and social sense. Further steps/efforts required for transfer, pilot projects, capacity development, awareness rising, stakeholder participation, implementation.

33 Thank you for your attention! Thanks to Niels Schütze, Gerd H. Schmitz, Franz Lennartz, Said Al-Hattaly, Ahmed Al-Rawahi, Alex Gerner, Sebastian Kloss, Marc Walther, Yohannes Subagadis The Omani Ministries of: Regional Municipalities and Water Resources Agriculture and Fisheries Thanks for funding

34 Journal papers (selection) Schütze, N., & Schmitz, G. H., 2010: OCCASION: A new Planning Tool for Optimal Climate Change Adaption Strategies in Irrigation. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. doi: /(ASCE)IR HONORABLE MENTION PAPER AWARD 2012 Grundmann, J., Schütze, N., Schmitz, G.-H., & Al-Shaqsi, S., 2012: Towards an integrated arid zone water management using simulation based optimisation. Environmental Earth Sciences. doi: /s z. Grundmann J., Schütze N. and Lennartz F., 2013: Sustainable management of a coupled groundwater agriculture hydrosystem using multi-criteria simulation based optimisation. Water Science & Technology, 67.3, doi: /wst Subagadis YH, Grundmann J, Schütze N, and Schmitz GH, 2014: An integrated approach to conceptualise hydrological and socio-economic interaction for supporting management decisions of coupled groundwater agricultural systems. Journal of Environmental Earth Sciences DOI: /s Kloss, S., Schütze, N., Schmitz, G.-H., 2011: Comparison of SVAT models for simulating and optimizing deficit irrigation systems in arid and semi-arid countries under climate variability. Water Resources Management. DOI: /s y. Walther, M., Delfs, J.-O., Grundmann, J., Kolditz, O., Liedl, R., 2012: Saltwater Intrusion Modeling: Verification and Application to an Agricultural Coastal Arid Region in Oman, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, doi: /j.cam Philipp, A. & Grundmann, J., 2013: An Integrated Modeling System for Flash Flood Routing in Ephemeral Rivers under the Influence of Groundwater Recharge Dams, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, volume 139, issue 12; DOI: /(ASCE)HY Contact: Jens.Grundmann@tu-dresden.de

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36 Optimal Management of coupled Hydrosystems - Model System for Regional Scale further extension - Other consumers Municipal water sector Other sources of water