New technologies for small hydro Geographical Information Systems (GIS): Eastern Cape Case Study

Transcription

1 New technologies for small hydro Geographical Information Systems (GIS): Eastern Cape Case Study Presentation to Hydro Power Africa 2009 by S Szewczuk CSIR, Built Environment 29 July 2009

2 An African Perspective taking stock

3 The Size of Africa Argentina USA Lower 48 India Europe China 9,596,960 km 2 USA 9,363,071 India 3,287,590 Europe 4,936,973 Argentina 2,766,890 New Zealand 268,680 TOTAL : 30,220,164 km 2 China New Zealand Area of Africa: 30,318,830 km 2 Source: World Factbook, 2004

4 RATIONALE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS Africa s economic priorities strongly formed by need to alleviate poverty 500 million African people without access to modern forms of energy Meeting of Millennium Development Goals In SA approx 3.5 million rural households are yet to be electrified (80% urban electrified, 45% rural electrified) Unemployment of major concern across Africa Challenge of alleviating poverty through linking of new economic activities and the provision of associated energy services

5 Question: How do we move Africa from a cow-patty energy economy to a modern energy economy?

6 A Fundamental Challenge A fundamental challenge is to redefine the paradigm for sustainable development in the energy context

7 Basic Premise for Sustainable Development The Bottom Line Energisation and electrification is only sustainable if there are economic activities to pay for it

8 Development Challenge The challenge is to increase access to safe and affordable energy services to enable productive economic activities and improvement in quality of life whilst decreasing the harmful side-effects of current energy practices

9 CSIR contribution to the development challenge in rural areas Changes in national priorities in early 1990 s resulted in CSIR aligning itself with these new priorities One such priority addressed was socio-economic upliftement particularly in rural areas Internal CSIR debate on role of energy to address national priorities was undertaken A paradigm shift in thinking resulted in the need for a holistic and integrated approach

10 CSIR contribution cont d A 3 year investigative project undertaken Obtain first hand understanding of complexity of the problem Brief overview of this project will be given emphasis on hydro

11 INTEGRATED ENERGY ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK INTEGRATED ENERGY ECONOMIC METHODOLOGY New, Alternative & Emerging Energy Technologies Conventional Energy Total Energy Supply Total Energy Demand Existing economic activities Costs Revenue Cost benefit analysis Life cycle analysis Energy efficiency New economic activities Enterprise creation Natural resources - arable land - tourism potential - forestry potential - minerals, - etc Intervention measures Other Conditions Policy Sanitation legislation Roads Markets Water Telecomms. etc Environmental externalities CDM CPF Sociological (Cultural) Facilitation Governance facilitation Capacity development After S SZEWCZUK CLIMATE CHANGE

12 Renewable Energy for Rural Electrification in Eastern Cape Primary objective: Identify rural electrification opportunities using renewable energy linked to existing and new economic activities Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to present and interpret results

13 Project parameters Rural electrification through Distributed Generation Systems Focus on former Transkei 93% of rural population without electricity 10 kw to 10 MW capacity Output: identification of implementable projects Emphasis on objective technological evaluations Skills transfer CONSTRAINT: limited finances

14 Modelling hydro potential in South Africa Annual hydro power potentials are mapped for both macro and micro power generation; macro power generation being considered for large scale daming projects, while micro power generation is considered for small scale projects in rural communities. Both macro and micro power potentials are modelled combining river gradients, mean annual run-off and variability in run-off. River gradients were determined using the Surveyor General 400 x 400m Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and mean annual run-off values per quaternary catchment were derived from the Water Research Commission, WR90 CD. Macro power potential is modelled using the cumulative mean annual flow volume along a river length. In comparison, micro power potential is modelled using the mean annual flow volume for a one kilometre stretch along a river. This approach gives a better estimate of local energy potential and highlights the potentials of fast flowing water (steep gradients) as opposed to large volumes of water.

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17 Small hydro sites Potential small hydro sites larger than 10kW identified by modelling techniques (supply side)

18 Possible demand from new economic activities (demand side) Agriculture irrigation processing Forestry processing sawmills pulp Eco-tourism Wild Coast

19 Lifetime unit cost calculations for supply side & demand side options 6.0% discount rate net of inflation 15 year term Systems sized for annual potential energy demand Electrical distribution costs included Separate approaches for wind, hydro, biomass Various economic activity options investigated

20 Cost of electricity from hydro for eco-tourism based economic activities

21 Current wind atlas with E Cape portion done as part of the E Cape project. Wind atlas now being updated

22 Energy system for Hluleka Nature Reserve Electricity generation system

23 Lucingweni wind/pv energy system

24 Related developments & initiatives South African Renewable Energy Resource Database (SARERD) Developed by CSIR, Eskom & DME Hydro, wind, solar and biomass spatially defined database HomerGIS links Homer a renewable energy optimisation model with SARERD assesses optimum hybrid system for a remote location based on renewable energy resource potential compares various renewable energy technologies and costs will be used mostly for rural electrification purposes to enhance productive use of renewable energy applications Ultimate objective: Development of a tool to identify a number of small bankable distributed generation projects that could be aggregated up into a project portfolio that will interest bankers and reduce transactional costs

25 THANK YOU