World Oil Outlook 2015

Transcription

1 Wrld Oil Outlk 2015 Presented by: Oswald Tapia Head, Energy Studies Department, OPEC On the ccasin f the 6th IEA-IEF-OPEC Sympsium n Energy Outlks 16th February 2016, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

2 Disclaimer The data, analysis and any ther infrmatin ( Cntent ) cntained in this presentatin is fr infrmatinal purpses nly and is nt intended as a substitute fr advice frm yur business, finance, investment cnsultant r ther prfessinal. Whilst reasnable effrts have been made t ensure the accuracy f the Cntent f this presentatin, the OPEC Secretariat makes n warranties r representatins as t its accuracy, currency r cmprehensiveness and assumes n liability r respnsibility fr any errr r missin and/r fr any lss arising in cnnectin with r attributable t any actin r decisin taken as a result f using r relying n the Cntent f this presentatin. This presentatin may cntain references t material(s) frm third parties whse cpyright must be acknwledged by btaining necessary authrizatin frm the cpyright wner(s). The OPEC Secretariat will nt be liable r respnsible fr any unauthrized use f third party material(s). The views expressed in this presentatin are thse f the OPEC Secretariat and d nt necessarily reflect the views f individual OPEC Member Cuntries. 2

3 Outline Reference Case: main assumptins Energy demand Oil demand utlk Liquids supply utlk Dwnstream issues Take aways 3

4 2015: a challenging year Significant drp in il prices The new il price envirnment impact n bth demand and supply prspects in the shrt- and medium-term rbust demand grwth tgether with slwdwn nn-opec supply grwth Large reductins in E&P capital expenditures, sme prjects deferred r cancelled Jb lay-ffs in the industry Glmier ecnmic picture in the nn-oecd regin cmpared t last year s Outlk All in all, 2015 has been a challenging year fr the industry The WOO emphasizes the medium- t lng-term trends in the industry 4

5 Reference Case: main assumptins Ecnmy Glbal GDP grwth prjected t reach 3.8% p.a. in 2018 and 2019 Average medium-term grwth: 3.6% p.a. ( ) Average lng-term grwth: 3.5% p.a. ( ) Demgraphics Wrld ppulatin will increase frm 7.2 billin in 2014 t 9 billin in 2040 Increasing urbanizatin and ageing ppulatin Oil price assumptins (OPEC Reference Basket) Reaching $80/b in 2020 and $163/b in 2040 in nminal terms In 2040 price is $95/b in 2014 prices Cst f marginal barrel a key factr Energy plicies shape the Outlk Recent changes in energy plicies primarily fcus n emissins reductin 5

6 Oil and gas t supply half f glbal energy by 2040 Energy demand is set t grw by 49%, reaching 399 mbe/d by 2040 Much f the energy demand grwth will cntinue t be in the develping wrld Fssil fuels dminate the mix with a 78% share by 2040 Oil will remain the fuel with the largest share in the next 20 years By 2040, natural gas is expected t have the largest share (28%) Fast grwth f renewables, supprted by plicies, set t cntinue, albeit frm a lw base Cmbined, il and gas t supply 53% f the glbal energy by

7 Medium-term il demand revised upward, but lngterm demand is dwn Oil demand increases frm 91.3 mb/d in 2014 t 97.4 mb/d in 2020 Cmpared t WOO 2014, demand has been revised upwards by 0.5 mb/d in 2020 Demand in develping cuntries will surpass that f the OECD by 2020 Fr the lng-term, demand increases by mre than 18 mb/d reaching mb/d in 2040 Demand in the OECD declines by 8 mb/d while in develping cuntries it increases by 26 mb/d Key grwth sectrs: rad transprtatin petrchemicals aviatin 7

8 Lwer il prices limit nn-opec supply grwth, especially in the medium-term Ttal nn-opec supply increases frm 56.5 mb/d in 2014 t mre than 60 mb/d in 2020 Dwnward revisin f 1 mb/d cmpared t WOO 2014 due t the lwer il price and investment cuts Nn-OPEC supply increases further t 61.5 mb/d in 2025, but then declines belw 60 mb/d by 2040 Main supply additins in the lng-term frm il sands in Canada, bifuels, NGLs and crude frm Latin America and the Caspian regin Glbal tight crude grwth t face limitatins that lead t a plateau f 5.6 mb/d in 2025, fllwed by a gradual decline OPEC crude supply increases frm 30 mb/d in 2014 t 40.7 mb/d in 2040, accunting fr 37% f the ttal wrld liquids supply by

9 The utlk is cluded with uncertainty: ecnmic grwth Alternative GDP grwth scenaris: Alternative average GDP grwth assumptins in the perid Higher ecnmic grwth: 3.7% p.a. Lwer ecnmic grwth: 3.1% p.a. By 2040 demand culd reach 115 mb/d in the higher ecnmic grwth scenari r 102 mb/d in the lwer ne Impact n OPEC crude Up t 45.4 mb/d in 2040 under the higher ecnmic grwth assumptin It culd decline t arund 28 mb/d by 2024, then increase up t 33.5 mb/d in 2040 under the lwer ecnmic grwth assumptin 9

10 The utlk is cluded with uncertainty: nn-opec supply Alternative nn-opec supply scenaris Abve- and/r belw-grund factrs culd result in upside and dwnside utcmes fr nn-opec supply Upside supply scenari: 6.1 mb/d added t the nn-opec liquids in the Reference Case by 2040 Additinal tight crude and uncnventinal NGLs, crude, bifuels, GTLs and CTLs Dwnside supply scenari: nn-opec supply by 2040 is 3.3 mb/d lwer than in the Reference Case In the dwnside nn-opec supply scenari, OPEC crude rises t 44 mb/d in 2040 while in the upside scenari OPEC crude is estimated at belw 35 mb/d 10

11 Medium-term refining capacity expansin still larger than that required by demand Refining prjects add 7.1 mb/d f new distillatin capacity in the perid Vast majrity f it in the Middle East, China and Other Asia- Pacific Incremental crude runs pen up a 2.1 mb/d excess capacity versus required level based n demand increases by 2020 Need fr additinal clsures still exists but smewhat under less pressure than last year 11

12 Need t increase cnversin capacity relative t distillatin in the lng-term Ttal crude distillatin capacity additins t 2040 estimated at 20 mb/d Required additinal cnversin capacity: 12.5 mb/d Pst-2020: cnversin additins at smewhat abve 70% f new distillatin capacity Tighter prduct quality specificatins lead t high additins in desulphurizatin capacity: 25.5 mb/d 12

13 Oil trade: Middle East leads exprt grwth Inter-reginal crude il mvements are prjected t stay level at arund 36 mb/d thrugh t 2020, befre grwing t ver 44 mb/d by 2040 The prjectins underscre the rle f the Middle East as the majr crude il exprter Ttal crude exprts frm the Middle East are prjected t reach 24 mb/d by 2040, ver 6 mb/d higher than in 2013 In terms f destinatin, the dminant flw and majr increases are t Asia- Pacific, attracted by this regin s rising demand 13

14 Oil trade: Asia-Pacific leads imprt grwth Imprts t the US & Canada will decline frm 5.8 mb/d in 2013 t belw 4 mb/d by 2040 Crude il imprts t Eurpe drp by mre than 2 mb/d between 2013 and 2040 Imprts t Asia-Pacific rise steadily between 2013 and 2040, by ver 11.5 mb/d, reaching a level f 30 mb/d by

15 Main take aways Energy demand will increase by almst 50% in the perid up t 2040 Oil will remain the fuel with the largest share in the next 20 years and il and gas will supply half f the glbal energy demand by 2040 Oil demand reaches almst 110 mb/d, with develping cuntries accunting fr mst f the grwth Ttal nn-opec supply peaks at 61.5 mb/d in 2025, but declines belw 60 mb/d by 2040 OPEC crude increases frm 30 mb/d in 2014 t 40.7 mb/d in 2040 The Outlk is cluded with uncertainty stemming, in particular, frm ecnmic grwth uncertainties and nn-opec supply prspects In the dwnstream, the need fr additinal refinery clsures still exists but smewhat under less pressure than last year Eastward shift in il mvements is set t cntinue 15

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