Trade-offs and/or synergies?

Transcription

1 Bi-energy and Land Use - Backgrund drivers, marginal effects and analytical ptins Jan-Erik Petersen, EEA 1 Trade-ffs and/r synergies? Agriculture is a majr surce f envirnmental pressure wrldwide Climate change is a very imprtant envirnmental and ecnmic threat Great need t develp renewable surces f energy Glbal land use trends + defrestatin Fd supply and develpment needs

2 Interactins between the envirnmental, fd and energy dmains chices + trade-ffs Objectives and targets f bienergy plicy cnstraints + ptins Sci-ecnmic + plicy trends Energy markets Trade plicy Climate plicy Fd security Available land fr: Fd + feed, Bimass, Bimaterials, Carbn management Climate change Water/sil resurces Technl. prgress Bimass / bifuels Envirnmental + technl. factrs Energy demand + plicy Ecnmic trends + interests Fd + feed demand Key drivers Envirnm. trends + plicy Technlg. develpment Backgrund drivers a selectin Glbal trends by 2030 (OECD, 2008): 46-48% increase in glbal fd demand 10% in wrld farmland Structure f the energy sectr: centralised r distributed energy systems? Need fr substituting fssil fuels by renewable surces in many areas Increasing glbal intercnnectins Scial and develpment aspiratins Glbal gvernance + plicy implementatin

3 Identifying marginal effects Which land use r bimass use is the marginal factr? Are there alternatives? Hw t estimate the marginal effects f additinal increments in fd cnsumptin r bifuel demand? Mdeling marginal effects requires us t hld everything else cnstant But hw cnstant is everything else in reality?! -> remember increases in glbal fd demand Single r cmbined marginal effects? India Glbal bi-fuel targets (April 2008) Cuntry (grup) Brazil Canada China EU-27 Japan Blending target r mandate M M T T M T Quantity r share 25% ethanl 5% bidiesel 5% ethanl 2% bidiesel 15% f fuel fr transprtatin 10% f transprt fuel 10% ethanl 5% bidiesel 6 billin litres Target year USA M 134 billin litres 2022

4 Agri-envirnmental baselines Agricultural land use change and land use intensity as a key envirnmental issue Marginal effects als exist in land use intensity: e.g., the higher the input use the bigger the risk f nutrient leaching r N2O emissins A critical balance: envirnmental impact r pprtunities fr imprving envirnmental management Preserving critical natural capital requires applicatin f a precautinary apprach Bidiesel frm ilseed rape in Eurpe

5 Firewd cllectin in develping cuntries Surce: What tls d we have? Analytical tls: Life cycle analysis Agr-ecnmic mdeling Satellite and field bservatins Scenari analysis Weaknesses: Indirect land use effects Envirnmental impacts Analysis f ecnmic drivers Assumptins and system bundaries

6 Sme critical science issues Develpment f integrated assessment framewrks Increase awareness f the impact f system bundaries (spatial + time scales, alternative land uses, plicy areas affected) Linking agr-ecn./land use mdels with energy and general equilibrium mdels Analysis f plicy ptins fr steering bienergy prductin: sustainability criteria, carbn trading/taxes, supprt t research/technlgies, rural/reginal/ internatinal develpment tls Glbal t lcal gvernance + knwledge transfer What public investments t make? Develping a better basis fr (plicy) decisins: Develpment f suitable glbal data sets n land use and farming systems Cnsider the interactive impact f natinal plicies n glbal resurces Create glbal mechanisms fr review + management f resurces Create/maintain sufficient capacity fr integrated analysis (in terms f inter-disciplinary knwledge and manpwer!) Knwledge transfer + extensin t prducers

7 Thank yu fr yur attentin.

8 Carbn effects f different land use starting pints + develpments.. = fd area = carbn-negative bifuels = gd bifuels = risky bifuels Prductive land area Frest land Crpland Degraded land Critical factrs in assessing bienergy prductin Relevant factrs and tls Chice f envirnmental factrs Methdlgical tls Technlgical standards / yield increase + crpping practices Available land / bimass Interactins between fd + energy markets Type and strength f external trends Implementatin + gvernance Prgress s far Range is k, but t much fcus n GHG balance (+ what abut iluc?!) Varius appraches available, but need further integratin + field data Mre wrk required, in particular n yields + crpping practices Much wrk remains t be dne, in particular at glbal level Sme mdeling results, but require better links t (bi)energy markets; but future fd demand seems ignred Very difficult t assess, e.g. impact f climate change, carbn payments Increasing insight int standards, but generally a black bx

9 Envirnmental issues f energy crpping Pathways & Energy Crpping Appraches (Glbal) land use change & availability Bienergy & Envirnment Impacts f Crpping practices Impacts f Cnversin prcesses Air + GHG emissins, carbn sinks, water quality + quantity, sils, bidiversity 17 Hw best t use bimass ptential? Replace as much imprted fuel as pssible Supply security Greenhuse gas reductin t CO 2 avided per hectare? Bienergy t CO 2 avided per Dllar? crp mix respects sil, water Envirnmental resurces Csts & Emplyment synergies with nature prtectin land use change