Hunting for climate clues in the Southern Ocean
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1 Hunting for climate clues in the Southern Ocean Steve Rintoul Interim Director, CSIRO Climate Science Centre Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
2 Outline 1. How has climate changed? 2. Why has climate changed? 3. What is the role of the ocean in climate? 4. Why is the Southern Ocean important? 5. What does the future hold? E. van Wijk
3 events
4 Global annual average temperature since 1950 The last 15 years are among the 16 warmest years in the instrumental record (i.e. since 1880). State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology)
5 Change in Australian annual average temperature State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology)
6 Change in heatwaves The duration, frequency and intensity of heatwaves have increased across large parts of Australia since State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology)
7 More extreme fire weather, longer fire season State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology)
8 2. Why has climate changed? State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology)
9 Greenhouse gas concentrations over past 1000 years Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 44% since the industrial revolution and are now at their highest level in 2 million years.
10 Empirical evidence that humans have caused climate change 1. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. The natural greenhouse effect makes the planet habitable: the earth is 33 C warmer than it would be in the absence of greenhouse gases. Laws of physics and direct measurements confirm that carbon dioxide absorbs heat, i.e. acts as a greenhouse gas.
11 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 2. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased since the industrial revolution.
12 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 3. The extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has come from burning of fossil fuels. State of the Climate 2016 (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology)
13 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 3. The extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere comes from burning of fossil fuels. Oxygen concentrations in the atmosphere have declined, at the rate expected from burning carbon rich fuels. CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased as human emissions have increased (the two are correlated). In recent decades, nature has absorbed more CO 2 than it has emitted, so natural sources cannot explain the observed increase in the atmosphere. Oxygen Carbon dioxide
14 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 4. The additional carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities has enhanced the greenhouse effect. Less energy is leaving the top of the atmosphere in the wavelengths absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Harries et al., Nature (2001)
15 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 4. The additional carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities has enhanced the greenhouse effect. Models can reproduce measured warming if effects of increased greenhouse gas forcing are included, but cannot do so with natural forcings alone. Source: IPCC 5 th Assessment Report, Working Group I Summary for Policy Makers
16 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 5. The earth has warmed as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Surface temperature ( C) Lower atmosphere ocean heat content
17 Evidence that humans have caused climate change 6. Observed changes in the climate system are consistent with an enhanced greenhouse effect. Other forcings (e.g. volcanoes, the sun) and internal variability cannot explain the magnitude, timing and distribution of observed trends. For example, enhanced greenhouse forcing warms the lower atmosphere and cools the upper atmosphere, as observed. Increases in solar energy would warm both the upper and lower atmosphere.
18 Empirical evidence that humans have caused climate change 1. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. 2. Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased. 3. The extra carbon dioxide comes from human activities. 4. The additional carbon dioxide has enhanced the greenhouse effect: less energy is leaving the top of the atmosphere in the wavelengths absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. 5. The earth has warmed as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect. 6. Observed changes are consistent with an enhanced greenhouse effect and cannot be explained by natural forcing or internal variability.
19 3. What is the role of the ocean in climate change?
20 Global warming is ocean warming 20
21 Increase in ocean heat content State of the Climate 2016 (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology)
22 Sea level rise State of the Climate 2016 (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology)
23 The ocean has soaked up 28% of human emissions of carbon dioxide Sabine et al.,
24 4. Why is the Southern Ocean important? Rintoul, 2001
25 A revolution in ocean observing 25
26 The Southern Ocean is warming Depth (m) Temperature trend ( C per decade) Mean latitude ( S) 26 Böning et al., Nature Geoscience, 2008
27 Salinity trend ( C per decade) and freshening 27 Mean latitude ( S) Depth (m)
28 Antarctic Bottom Water layer contracted by 50% between 1970 and 2012 Area Year Van Wijk & Rintoul, Geophysical Research Letters,
29
30 Ice shelves buttress the Antarctic Ice Sheet 30
31 Ocean ice shelf interaction can lead to an unstable retreat of the ice sheet (the Marine Ice Sheet Instability ) 31 Schoof, 2010
32 Marine Ice Sheet Instability underway in West Antarctica? GRL, 2014 Science, 2014 Rignot et al 2014 Nature Climate Change, 2014
33 Much of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is grounded below sea level 33 Bedmap2 data (Fretwell et al 2013); from Alley et al. (2015)
34 An expedition to the Totten Glacier
35 22 December 2014
36 9 January 2015
37 Warm water is melting the Totten Ice Shelf from below Rintoul et al., in press; Silvano et al., in press
38 Warm water is flowing strongly into the ice shelf cavity Rintoul et al., in press 38
39 5. What does the future hold? State of the Climate 2016 (CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology)
40 COP21: the Paris Agreement The first truly global climate agreement. Agreement to limit global warming to less than 2 C (and preferably to less than 1.5 C). Can we do it?
41 Antarctic commitment to future sea level rise Golledge et al., Nature, 2015
42 Carbon budget Warming Cumulative carbon dioxide emissions
43 Carbon clock
44 Summary Warming is unequivocal human influence is clear. Ocean uptake of heat and carbon dioxide slows climate change but at the cost of sea level rise and ocean acidification. The Southern Ocean is a powerful player in the climate system. Time is running out if we want to minimise the risk of crossing critical thresholds, such as an irreversible commitment to sea level rise from loss of ice sheets. Esmee van Wijk
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