Will Nuclear Generations Fight Together Or Each Other In The Global Energy Market Competition?
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- Myles Garrison
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1 Will Nuclear Generations Fight Together Or Each Other In The Global Energy Market Competition? A. Bidaud 1, S. Mima 2, Abdoul-Aziz Zakari 3, S. Gabriel 4, A.Monnet 4, G. Mathonniere 4, B. Champel 5, N. HadjSaid 6, P.Criqui 2, M. Cuney 7, P. Bruneton, Sylvain David 3, and Maurice Pagel 8 1 Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique, LPSC/IN2P3/CNRS, Université Grenoble-Alpes bidaud@lpsc.in2p3.fr 2 Economie du Développement et de l Energie, PACTE/CNRS, Grenoble 3 Institut de Physique Nucléaire Orsay, CNRS, Université Paris Sud Orsay 4 CEA/ITESE, Saclay 5 CEA/DRT/LITEN 6 G2ELAB, CNRS, Université Grenoble-Alpes 7 Georessources, CNRS, Nancy 8 GEOPS, CNRS, Université Paris Sud Orsay A. Bidaud et GLOBAL 2015 A. Bidaud et ICAPP 2015
2 World Energy Transition 2
3 World Energy Transition Context = Cop 21 + Nuclear Regulation (ex France = 63GW cap + 50% share) 3 «Pilars» of Deep Decarbonization [1] : [1] 2
4 World Energy Transition Context = Cop 21 + Nuclear Regulation (ex France = 63GW cap + 50% share) 3 «Pilars» of Deep Decarbonization [1] : Energy savings [1] 2
5 World Energy Transition Context = Cop 21 + Nuclear Regulation (ex France = 63GW cap + 50% share) 3 «Pilars» of Deep Decarbonization [1] : Energy savings Energy switch toward Low CO2 vectors Hydrogène [1] 2
6 World Energy Transition Context = Cop 21 + Nuclear Regulation (ex France = 63GW cap + 50% share) 3 «Pilars» of Deep Decarbonization [1] : Energy savings Energy switch toward Low CO2 vectors Decarbonization of vectors Hydrogène [1] 2
7 World Energy Transition Context = Cop 21 + Nuclear Regulation (ex France = 63GW cap + 50% share) 3 «Pilars» of Deep Decarbonization [1] : Energy savings Energy switch toward Low CO2 vectors Decarbonization of vectors Energy mix diversity = Diversity of paths Hydrogène [1] 2
8 World Energy Transition Context = Cop 21 + Nuclear Regulation (ex France = 63GW cap + 50% share) 3 «Pilars» of Deep Decarbonization [1] : Energy savings Energy switch toward Low CO2 vectors Decarbonization of vectors Energy mix diversity = Diversity of paths Hydrogène Time Horizon Diversity Investissements = decades Usage / Production < hours [1] RTE rapport annuel 2
9 POLES : «Prospective Outlook on Long Term Energy System» partial equilibrium model of world Energy System
10 POLES : «Prospective Outlook on Long Term Energy System» partial equilibrium model of world Energy System 2 Nuclear technologies simulated : Thermal Neutron Reactors using natural U and Fast Neutron Breeders using recycled TR used fuels as startup inventories
11 How to model variability? 4
12 How to model variability? Investment = f (LCOE) + expected Demand projection 4
13 How to model variability? Investment = f (LCOE) + expected Demand projection LCOE = g(load Factor) 4
14 How to model variability? Investment = f (LCOE) + expected Demand projection LCOE = g(load Factor) EUCAD = dispatch built 12 representative days / year with solar/wind profiles of 28 countries in Europe as a function of marginal costs (see R. Loisel) European Commitment and Dispatch (EUCAD) 4
15 How to model variability? Investment = f (LCOE) + expected Demand projection LCOE = g(load Factor) EUCAD = dispatch built 12 representative days / year with solar/wind profiles of 28 countries in Europe as a function of marginal costs (see R. Loisel) European Commitment and Dispatch (EUCAD) 4
16 Nuclear Generations Fight each other?
17 Nuclear Generations Fight each other? /kwh Breeders LWR Enriched U Unat price ($/kg)
18 Nuclear Generations Fight each other? /kwh Breeders LWR Enriched U ultimate resources Unat price ($/kg)
19 Nuclear Generations Fight each other? /kwh Breeders LWR Enriched U 130 $/kg >1000 $/kg ultimate resources Unat price ($/kg)
20 Nuclear Generations Fight each other? FR need a critical mass of fissile materials => In France, those materials should come from used MOX fuels («matières valorisables»). /kwh Breeders LWR Enriched U 130 $/kg >1000 $/kg ultimate resources Unat price ($/kg)
21 Nuclear Generations Fight each other? FR need a critical mass of fissile materials => In France, those materials should come from used MOX fuels («matières valorisables»). /kwh Breeders Not starting FR (by building a demonstrator called ASTRID = 10* Long Lived High activity = 2 * underground repository > 20G? FR can be seen as «dynamical» storages of Pu and maybe Minor Actinides... LWR Enriched U 130 $/kg >1000 $/kg ultimate resources Unat price ($/kg)
22 Nuclear Generations Fight each other? FR need a critical mass of fissile materials => In France, those materials should come from used MOX fuels («matières valorisables»). /kwh Breeders Not starting FR (by building a demonstrator called ASTRID = 10* Long Lived High activity = 2 * underground repository > 20G? FR can be seen as «dynamical» storages of Pu and maybe Minor Actinides... LWR Enriched U See A. Baschwitz yesterday or 130 GLOBAL $/kg 2015 >1000 $/kg ultimate resources Unat price ($/kg)
23 URANIUM RESOURCES 6
24 URANIUM RESOURCES 6
25 URANIUM RESOURCES Royer et Cuney, journées Uranium
26 URANIUM RESOURCES Schneider et al. Energy Policy 2013 Royer et Cuney, journées Uranium
27 URANIUM RESOURCES Schneider et al. Energy Policy 2013 Royer et Cuney, journées Uranium 2013 We may always find uranium. At what cost? 6
28 URANIUM RESOURCES Schneider et al. Energy Policy 2013 Royer et Cuney, journées Uranium 2013 We may always find uranium. At what cost? 6
29 Uranium Long Term Supply Curves depend on cumulated uranium used
30 Uranium Long Term Supply Curves depend on cumulated uranium used S shapes Supply curves (A. Monet et al. [PHYSOR 2015 IAEE 2016]) 130$/kg used to be the end of «known reserves»
31 Uranium Long Term Supply Curves depend on cumulated uranium used S shapes Supply curves (A. Monet et al. [PHYSOR 2015 IAEE 2016]) 130$/kg used to be the end of «known reserves» >6MT, jump in the unkown? growning slope Iden tifie d Specul ative
32 Uranium Long Term Supply Curves depend on cumulated uranium used S shapes Supply curves (A. Monet et al. [PHYSOR 2015 IAEE 2016]) 130$/kg used to be the end of «known reserves» >6MT, jump in the unkown? growning slope technology rupture (phosphate, sea water J. Guidez [PHYSOR 2015]), lower slope Iden tifie d Specul ative Unknwon
33 Uranium Long Term Supply Curves depend on cumulated uranium used S shapes Supply curves (A. Monet et al. [PHYSOR 2015 IAEE 2016]) 130$/kg used to be the end of «known reserves» >6MT, jump in the unkown? growning slope technology rupture (phosphate, sea water J. Guidez [PHYSOR 2015]), lower slope Iden tifie d Specul ative Unknwon
![[PHYSOR 2015 IAEE 2016]) 130$/kg used to be the end of](/docs-images/84/89666329/images/34-1.jpg "«known reserves» >6MT, jump in the unkown?")
![Guidez [PHYSOR 2015]), lower slope What lies beyond](/docs-images/84/89666329/images/34-5.jpg "the little red book?")
34 Uranium Long Term Supply Curves depend on cumulated uranium used S shapes Supply curves (A. Monet et al. [PHYSOR 2015 IAEE 2016]) 130$/kg used to be the end of «known reserves» >6MT, jump in the unkown? growning slope technology rupture (phosphate, sea water J. Guidez [PHYSOR 2015]), lower slope What lies beyond the little red book? Iden tifie d Specul ative Unknwon At what speed could those (non conventional) resources be developed?
35 What is the cost of uranium as a coproduct? 8
36 What is the cost of uranium as a coproduct? Olympic Dam (3kt/y) = 5% or world uranium but mainly a copper mine! 8
37 What is the cost of uranium as a coproduct? Olympic Dam (3kt/y) = 5% or world uranium but mainly a copper mine! Capacity (kt/y) depends more of copper price than uranium price 8
38 What is the cost of uranium as a coproduct? Olympic Dam (3kt/y) = 5% or world uranium but mainly a copper mine! Capacity (kt/y) depends more of copper price than uranium price Many resources envisionned : Phosphates. But uranium contained in phosphate flows < 10kt Unat/y (cf AIEA, I- TESE). Coal mines < 1kt/y Others ==> uranium price should become dependent on annual production volumes 8
39 What is the cost of uranium as a coproduct? Olympic Dam (3kt/y) = 5% or world uranium but mainly a copper mine! Capacity (kt/y) depends more of copper price than uranium price Many resources envisionned : Phosphates. But uranium contained in phosphate flows < 10kt Unat/y (cf AIEA, I- TESE). Coal mines < 1kt/y Others ==> uranium price should become dependent on annual production volumes Proposed uranium cost model: 8
40 What is the cost of uranium as a coproduct? Olympic Dam (3kt/y) = 5% or world uranium but mainly a copper mine! Capacity (kt/y) depends more of copper price than uranium price Many resources envisionned : Phosphates. But uranium contained in phosphate flows < 10kt Unat/y (cf AIEA, I- TESE). Coal mines < 1kt/y Others ==> uranium price should become dependent on annual production volumes Proposed uranium cost model: Low production rates : uranium cost= separation of uranium from raw material flows High production rates (> primary co products), uranium price must cover most of mine costs 8
41 Production capacity limitation Installed)Power)(MW)) 2,0E+06% 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% 5,0E+05% TR%Resources%Limita<on% FBR%Resources%Limita<on% TR%Produc<on%Capacity% Limita<on% FBR%Procu<on%Capacity% Limita<on% 0,0E+00% 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 2090% 2100% Years) 9
42 Production capacity limitation Installed)Power)(MW)) 2,0E+06% 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% 5,0E+05% TR%Resources%Limita<on% FBR%Resources%Limita<on% TR%Produc<on%Capacity% Limita<on% FBR%Procu<on%Capacity% Limita<on% Uranium(Cost(($/kg)( 3000" 2500" 2000" 1500" 1000" Produc1on" Capacity"limita1on" Resources" Limita1on" 500" 0,0E+00% 0" 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 2090% 2100% 1980" 2000" 2020" 2040" 2060" 2080" 2100" 2120" Years) Year( prix de l Uranium No more Uranium Peak No Ultimate resources definition Higher Uranium costs Equivalent FR development $/kgu Uranium extrait (Mt) Debit d Uranium (kt/y)
43 Production capacity limitation Installed)Power)(MW)) 2,0E+06% 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% 5,0E+05% TR%Resources%Limita<on% FBR%Resources%Limita<on% TR%Produc<on%Capacity% Limita<on% FBR%Procu<on%Capacity% Limita<on% 3000" 1,2$ Uranium(Cost(($/kg)( 2500" TNR$Reduced$U$Cost$vs$Ref$ 1,1$ 2000" FBR$$Reduced$U$Cost$vs$Ref$ 1500" 1,0$ 0,9$ 1000" 500" Produc1on" Capacity"limita1on" Resources" Limita1on" 0,0E+00% 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 0,8$ 0" 2090% 2100% 1980" 2000" 2020" 2040" 2060" 2080" 2100" 2120" Years) 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ Year( 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ prix de l Uranium No more Uranium Peak No Ultimate resources definition Higher Uranium costs Equivalent FR development $/kgu Reduced Uranium costs (-20%) Increase of TR Increase of FR! Uranium extrait (Mt) Debit d Uranium (kt/y)
44 +50 % First Of A Kind (FOAK) Reactors costs Delayed FR startup and equivalent long term deployment Very late extra TR (learning curve effects) Sensitivities to FR costs Installed)Power)(MW)) 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% 5,0E+05% "R%Expensive%FOAK% Breeders"% "FBR%Expensive%FOAK% Breeders"% "TR%ref"% FBR%ref% 0,0E+00% 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 2090% 2100% Years)
45 +50 % First Of A Kind (FOAK) Reactors costs Delayed FR startup and equivalent long term deployment Very late extra TR (learning curve effects) Sensitivities to FR costs Installed)Power)(MW)) 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% 5,0E+05% "R%Expensive%FOAK% Breeders"% "FBR%Expensive%FOAK% Breeders"% "TR%ref"% FBR%ref% 0,0E+00% 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 2090% 2100% Years)
46 +50 % First Of A Kind (FOAK) Reactors costs Delayed FR startup and equivalent long term deployment Very late extra TR (learning curve effects) Sensitivities to FR costs Installed)Power)(MW)) 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% 5,0E+05% "R%Expensive%FOAK% Breeders"% "FBR%Expensive%FOAK% Breeders"% "TR%ref"% FBR%ref% 2,0E+06% "TR%Expensive%Breeders"% 0,0E+00% 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 2090% 2100% Years) Installed)Power)(MW)) 1,5E+06% 1,0E+06% FBR%Expensive%Breeders% "TR%ref"% FBR%ref% 5,0E+05% 0,0E+00% 2000% 2010% 2020% 2030% 2040% 2050% 2060% 2070% 2080% 2090% 2100% Years) +30 % long term FR (floor costs) Strong long lasting n reduction of FR deployment Very late extra TR
47 FR physical parameters and synergetic strategies Ra#o%of%Installed%power% 1,2$ 1,1$ 1,0$ TR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ FBR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ 0,9$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$
48 FR physical parameters and synergetic strategies FR initial inventory halved => FR doubled Ra#o%of%Installed%power% 1,2$ 1,1$ 1,0$ TR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ FBR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ 0,9$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$
49 FR physical parameters and synergetic strategies FR initial inventory halved => FR doubled Breeding gain + 5% => FR + 5 % TR almost unchanged 2,2$ 2$ 1,8$ 1,6$ "TR$sensi1vity$to$ FBR$Fissile$Inventory$ Ra#o%of%Installed%power% 1,2$ 1,1$ 1,0$ TR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ FBR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ 1,4$ 1,2$ 1$ "FBR$sensi1vity$to$ FBR$Fissile$ Inventory"$ 0,9$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$ 0,8$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$
50 FR physical parameters and synergetic strategies FR initial inventory halved => FR doubled Breeding gain + 5% => FR + 5 % TR almost unchanged 2,2$ 2$ 1,8$ 1,6$ 2,0$ 1,4$ 1,8$ 1,2$ 1$ 1,6$ "TR$sensi1vity$to$ FBR$Fissile$Inventory$ "FBR$sensi1vity$to$ TR$change$due$to$ FBR$Fissile$ collabora9ve$strategy$ Inventory"$ 0,8$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$ 1,4$ FBR$change$due$to$ collabora9ve$ 1,2$ strategy"$ 1,0$ 0,8$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$ Ra#o%of%Installed%power% 1,2$ 1,1$ 1,0$ TR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ FBR$Breeding$gain$ sensi5vity$ 0,9$ 1980$ 2000$ 2020$ 2040$ 2060$ 2080$ 2100$ 2120$ Synertic scenario : FR have access to a «world TR used fuel bank» FR growth rate almost doubled during early deployment phase TR almost unchanged
51 Nuclear Generations fight together? 12
52 Nuclear Generations fight together? Investment = f(lcoe) Nuclear (New build > 60%) Variable Renew ( %) LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity 12
53 Nuclear Generations fight together? Union of Concerned Scientits Investment = f(lcoe) Nuclear (New build > 60%) Variable Renew ( %) LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity 12
54 Nuclear Generations fight together? Union of Concerned Scientits Investment = f(lcoe) Nuclear (New build > 60%) Variable Renew ( %) LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity Expected evolution of Wind energy LCOE ADEME 100% renewable scenario study (2015) 12
55 Nuclear Generations fight together? Investment = f(lcoe) Nuclear (New build > 60%) Variable Renew ( %) Operation based on marginal cost Nuclear (New build < 20%) Variable Renew (0-10 %) Union of Concerned Scientits LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity Expected evolution of Wind energy LCOE ADEME 100% renewable scenario study (2015) 12
56 Nuclear Generations fight together? Investment = f(lcoe) Nuclear (New build > 60%) Variable Renew ( %) Operation based on marginal cost Nuclear (New build < 20%) Variable Renew (0-10 %) Even without priority access, new renewables may force base load techs like nuclear, out of the market Union of Concerned Scientits LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity Expected evolution of Wind energy LCOE ADEME 100% renewable scenario study (2015) 12
57 Nuclear Generations fight together? Investment = f(lcoe) Nuclear (New build > 60%) Variable Renew ( %) Operation based on marginal cost Nuclear (New build < 20%) Variable Renew (0-10 %) Even without priority access, new renewables may force base load techs like nuclear, out of the market (at least for some sunny / windy hours) Union of Concerned Scientits LCOE = Levelized Cost of Electricity Expected evolution of Wind energy LCOE ADEME 100% renewable scenario study (2015) 12
58 Nuclear Load Following capacity 13
59 Nuclear Load Following capacity Dispachable units need to cope with variable demands and renewable productions at ALL time scales (season, week, day, hours, minutes, seconds) Large interconnections are helpful RTE (French TSO) 2014 Annual report 13
60 Nuclear Load Following capacity Dispachable units need to cope with variable demands and renewable productions at ALL time scales (season, week, day, hours, minutes, seconds) Large interconnections are helpful French Nuclear fleet do it! RTE (French TSO) 2014 Annual report Fleet s seasonal adjustment to demand by adapted outage planning OECD NEA Nuclear and Renewables 13
61 Nuclear Load Following capacity Dispachable units need to cope with variable demands and renewable productions at ALL time scales (season, week, day, hours, minutes, seconds) Large interconnections are helpful French Nuclear fleet do it! RTE (French TSO) 2014 Annual report 1 NPP production history Fleet s seasonal adjustment to demand by adapted outage planning OECD NEA Nuclear and Renewables 13
62 Nuclear Load Following capacity Dispachable units need to cope with variable demands and renewable productions at ALL time scales (season, week, day, hours, minutes, seconds) Large interconnections are helpful French Nuclear fleet do it! RTE (French TSO) 2014 Annual report +- 7% Frequency control rotating reserve 1 NPP production history Fleet s seasonal adjustment to demand by adapted outage planning OECD NEA Nuclear and Renewables 13
63 Nuclear Load Following capacity Dispachable units need to cope with variable demands and renewable productions at ALL time scales (season, week, day, hours, minutes, seconds) Large interconnections are helpful French Nuclear fleet do it! RTE (French TSO) 2014 Annual report +- 7% Frequency control rotating reserve +- 70% nights / weekends load following 1 NPP production history Fleet s seasonal adjustment to demand by adapted outage planning OECD NEA Nuclear and Renewables 13
64 Duration curve evolution (ex : France) 2014 Projected nuclear fleet reduced (higher construction costs now than in the 80 s) 14
65 Duration curve evolution (ex : France) Projected nuclear fleet reduced (higher construction costs now than in the 80 s) Massive evolutions: disapearence of base load! increase in peak capacities (half the dispatchables) disapearence of Nuclear? 14
66 Load following capacity extension
67 Load following capacity extension 2100 «Electricity is the future» -> massive increase in global electricity consumption in > need for dispatchable sources still very strong (incl. Nukes) 15
68 Load following capacity extension «Electricity is the future» -> massive increase in global electricity consumption in > need for dispatchable sources still very strong (incl. Nukes) -> If nuclear can contribute to lower hours investments blocks. +10GW of nuclear capacity! 15
69 Scenario studies 16
70 4 main scenarios Scenario studies No policy 2 C Climate policy Climate policy, No CCS Climate policy, No CCS, no new electricity storage 16
71 4 main scenarios Scenario studies No policy 2 C Climate policy Climate policy, No CCS Climate policy, No CCS, no new electricity storage World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) 16
72 4 main scenarios Scenario studies No policy 2 C Climate policy Climate policy, No CCS Climate policy, No CCS, no new electricity storage World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Country specific paths («know your enemy») Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) 16
73 4 main scenarios Scenario studies No policy 2 C Climate policy Climate policy, No CCS Climate policy, No CCS, no new electricity storage World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Country specific paths («know your enemy») Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) No «fixed» demand, strong sensitivity to learning curves 16
74 4 main scenarios Scenario studies No policy 2 C Climate policy Climate policy, No CCS Climate policy, No CCS, no new electricity storage World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Country specific paths («know your enemy») Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) No «fixed» demand, strong sensitivity to learning curves Uranium resources limits 16
75 2 C no CCS Typical daily profiles A. Bidaud et ICAPP
76 2 C no CCS Typical daily profiles A. Bidaud et ICAPP
77 Typical daily profiles 2 C no CCS 2 C A. Bidaud et ICAPP
78 Typical daily profiles 2 C no CCS 2 C A. Bidaud et ICAPP
79 Typical daily profiles 2 C no CCS 2 C A. Bidaud et ICAPP
80 Typical daily profiles 2 C no CCS 2 C 2 C no CCS, no stock innov. A. Bidaud et ICAPP
81 Extension of Load Following Capacities 18
82 Extension of Load Following Capacities World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) 18
83 Extension of Load Following Capacities World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) 18
84 Extension of Load Following Capacities World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) 18
85 Extension of Load Following Capacities World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) World nuclear Load Factors (WR + FR) 18
86 Extension of Load Following Capacities World nuclear installed power (WR + FR) Europe nuclear installed power (WR + FR) World nuclear Load Factors (WR + FR) Europe nuclear Load Factors (WR + FR) 18
87
88
89 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity
90 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies
91 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies Mine technologies could be the most important technological transition in nuclear industry in this century :
92 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies Mine technologies could be the most important technological transition in nuclear industry in this century : <10 % of co product today. Most of «non-conventional reserves» corresponds to co-productions In POLES, the breeder reactor market is another market to be taken by Nuclear industry, often different from the TR market. Its growth depends on Economics : Competition against [fossiles w/wo CCS, biomass, hydro+ires with storage?] ==> importance of geography, geology and history of each country
93 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies Mine technologies could be the most important technological transition in nuclear industry in this century : <10 % of co product today. Most of «non-conventional reserves» corresponds to co-productions In POLES, the breeder reactor market is another market to be taken by Nuclear industry, often different from the TR market. Its growth depends on Economics : Competition against [fossiles w/wo CCS, biomass, hydro+ires with storage?] ==> importance of geography, geology and history of each country FR Competition against Thermal Reactors not the main objective + FR need TR for core startup inventories.
94 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies Mine technologies could be the most important technological transition in nuclear industry in this century : <10 % of co product today. Most of «non-conventional reserves» corresponds to co-productions In POLES, the breeder reactor market is another market to be taken by Nuclear industry, often different from the TR market. Its growth depends on Economics : Competition against [fossiles w/wo CCS, biomass, hydro+ires with storage?] ==> importance of geography, geology and history of each country FR Competition against Thermal Reactors not the main objective + FR need TR for core startup inventories. Collaborative / synergetic strategies have strong impacts by doubling FR growth rates (in fast growing countries) and reducing used fuel burdens (in stalling/phasing out countries).
95 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies Mine technologies could be the most important technological transition in nuclear industry in this century : <10 % of co product today. Most of «non-conventional reserves» corresponds to co-productions In POLES, the breeder reactor market is another market to be taken by Nuclear industry, often different from the TR market. Its growth depends on Economics : Competition against [fossiles w/wo CCS, biomass, hydro+ires with storage?] ==> importance of geography, geology and history of each country FR Competition against Thermal Reactors not the main objective + FR need TR for core startup inventories. Collaborative / synergetic strategies have strong impacts by doubling FR growth rates (in fast growing countries) and reducing used fuel burdens (in stalling/phasing out countries). => Diversity of paths
96 Context => higher (CO2 free) power demand & Mandatory Load Following Capacity Endogenous definition of demand + physical limits of breeders + dynamic uranium price description = Reduced competition between Nuclear reactor technologies Mine technologies could be the most important technological transition in nuclear industry in this century : <10 % of co product today. Most of «non-conventional reserves» corresponds to co-productions In POLES, the breeder reactor market is another market to be taken by Nuclear industry, often different from the TR market. Its growth depends on Economics : Competition against [fossiles w/wo CCS, biomass, hydro+ires with storage?] ==> importance of geography, geology and history of each country FR Competition against Thermal Reactors not the main objective + FR need TR for core startup inventories. Collaborative / synergetic strategies have strong impacts by doubling FR growth rates (in fast growing countries) and reducing used fuel burdens (in stalling/phasing out countries). => Diversity of paths => Huge needs for Dynamic Nuclear Fuel Cycle studies
97
98 Use POLES + EUCAD trajectories in DNFC code (CLASS) Increase competition for shared nuclear materials : Enriched Uranium (15%) started Breeder reactors MOX recycling in Thermal Reactors Increase synergies between reactors : value waste management credit to FR Study competitors (efficiency, energy economy, CCS ) dynamics Learning curves of Nuclear and others Build Carnot Energies du Futur Prospective White Paper => PhD position opening this Autumn (?)/ Winter
99 Use POLES + EUCAD trajectories in DNFC code (CLASS) Increase competition for shared nuclear materials : Enriched Uranium (15%) started Breeder reactors MOX recycling in Thermal Reactors Increase synergies between reactors : value waste management credit to FR Study competitors (efficiency, energy economy, CCS ) dynamics Learning curves of Nuclear and others Build Carnot Energies du Futur Prospective White Paper => PhD position opening this Autumn (?)/ Winter Grenoble pers in a pers area Students «Only» 150 Nuclear Engineering Master diploma / y
100 Merci de votre attention! Thank you! A. Bidaud Uranium Resources, Scenarios, Nuclear and Energy Dynamics 21
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