A model for cost benefit analysis of cooking fuel alternatives

Transcription

1 ETHOS 2016 Northwest University, Seattle WA A model for cost benefit analysis of cooking fuel alternatives Sameer Patel, Anish Khandelwal, Anna Leavey and Pratim Biswas Aerosol & Air Quality Research Laboratory (AAQRL) Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO

2 Solid Fuel Combustion: Issues Product of incomplete combustion (PICs) from solid fuel combustion in cookstoves have adverse impact on both health and environment On a global scale, biomass burning is estimated to contribute up to 90 % of the combustion generated primary particulate organic carbon (OC) (Bond et al. 2008) 2

3 Two Possible Solutions 1) Introduce better technology for more efficient combustion of solid fuels 2) Transition from solid fuels to cleaner fuel alternatives However both solutions generate a range of technological and policy challenges 3

4 Technology Based Studies in AAQRL Lab Studies: Understanding particle formation during controlled biomass pyrolysis in a flat flame reactor (Fang et al. Fuel 116, (2014)) Chemical and physical characterization of PM and understanding effects of cookstove design and operating principle (Patel et al. Energy for Sus. Dev., in review) Simulation of particle formation using an integrated combustion and particle growth dynamic model compatible with different type fuel and cookstove designs (Patel et al. in preparation) Developing, assessing and comparing new instrumentation for air quality monitoring (Leavey et al. AS&T 47, (2013) and Wang et al. AS&T 49, (2015)) Field Studies: Introducing real-time instrumentation in the field and development of emissions indices (Sahu et al. ES&T 45, (2011)) Comparing traditional and improved cookstoves with uncontrolled cooking test (UCT) (Leavey et al. ES&T, 49, (2015)) An ongoing two year long intervention field study in India to assess the efficacy of improved cookstove in reducing health risks in collaboration with Brown School of Social work and Medical School at WUSTL 4

5 Why Focus on Fuel Transitioning Improved cookstoves, though better than traditional stoves, still generate high levels of pollutants It is extremely difficult to burn biomass cleanly enough to meet guidelines to protect health (K. R. Smith, Science 345, 603 (2014)) Cleaner fuel alternatives should be seen as the ultimate goal Brazil and Indonesia undertook such fuel transitioning projects which can serve as an example (Coelho et al. Energy Policy, 2013, Budya et al. Energy Policy, 2011) 5

6 Factors Governing Fuel Transitioning A household s fuel selection process must be understood before targeting any fuel transitioning A household s fuel preference is an intricate function of multiple factors, such as cost, fuel availability and ease of use. These factors contribute to an overall cost and benefit that is associated with different fuel alternatives Modelling a household's decision-making process is critical to gain better insight into how important different factors are perceived, and how they affect a household s fuel preference Such models can be exploited as a powerful tool by policymakers 6

7 Cost-Benefit Analysis Model Patel et al., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 56 (2016)

8 Cost-Benefit Analysis Model Patel et al., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 56 (2016)

9 Quantification of Different Factors Governing Fuel Preference Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to quantify all constituent factors of cost and benefit associated with different fuel alternatives AHP provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a decision making problem (Saaty, European Journal of Operational Research 48, 9-26 (1990)) Based pairwise comparison, AHP assigns weights to the alternatives on a common scale 9

10 Results: Model Validation This CBA model cannot predict the fraction of households using a particular kind of fuel but ranks them in the order of a household s preference The CBA model predicted the current cooking fuel usage pattern in rural India % of Households Benefit-to-Cost Ratio Model results Current fuel usage pattern in rural India Biomass Biogas Dung Charcoal LPG Kerosene Electricity 10

11 Why Improved Cookstoves Suffer Low Retention Rate A significant fraction of improved cookstove (ICS) dissemination initiatives fail to ensure continued use of the cookstoves (Urmee et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 33, (2014)) The CBA model explained the low retention of ICS Benefit to Cost Ratio Traditional cookstove ICS w/o subsidy ICS with subsidy 0.0 Biomass Dung Charcoal Patel et al., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 56 (2016)

12 What Would it Take for Fuel Transitioning Benefit to Cost Ratio Base case 30% subsidy on LPG 60% subsidy on LPG Benefit-to-Cost Ratio Base Case Biomass & LPG equally accessible Biomass & Electricity equally accessible 0.0 Biomass Dung LPG 0.0 Biomass Dung LPG Electricity Just subsidizing LPG alone cannot replace biomass as the most preferred fuel The rural rich are still energy poor due to the lack of a reliable supply of cleaner fuel alternatives Patel et al., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 56 (2016)

13 A CBA Model to Understand a Household s Fuel Preference 13

14 Conclusions A novel approach to model a household s decision-making process for cooking fuel selection was demonstrated A lack of robust user-friendly cookstoves and after-sales services were found to be critical reasons for low retention rates of ICS in rural India Subsidies alone cannot lead to LPG adoption in rural India which explains why the rural rich is still energy poor This model could be easily translated to both the rural and urban populations of other countries with only minor modifications to suit the demographics, geography, market conditions and policies of that country 14

15 Acknowledgements MAGEEP Thank You!! 15