Household Energy, Health, and Climate: the Kerosene Story

Transcription

1 Household Energy, Health, and Climate: the Kerosene Story Kirk R. Smith, University of California-Berkeley and Nicholas Lam, University of Illinois-Urbana

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7 How Kero Consumption Varies by Rural and Urban Income Groups in Ind ia In 2011 Census, <3% of households cook with kero (Data: IHDS 2005; Summarized in Lam 2015)

8 Indian BC Emissions by Sector IIASA (GAINS), Forthcoming

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11 Health Studies in South Asia Acute lower respiratory infections in children Cataracts Tuberculosis Adverse pregnancy outcomes China: cancer

12 Cooking Gas Biomass Kerosene

13 Pokhrel et al. Atmos Environ, forthcoming

14 Lam et al., EST, 2012

15 How does per-capita demand change over electricity category and income in rural India? 0.06 K eros sene for Lighting (Liters/P erson-d ay y) Rural, No Electricity Rural, < 16 hrs/day Service Rural, 16 hrs/day Service Per-Capita Expenditure ($/Day) Lam 2014

16 Kerosene (Lighting) Consumption (Gg) Flow Lam et al. (In Preparation)

17 Kerosene Lighting Consumption & Impacts to 2030 Historic (2005-6) Relative to Baseline (2030) Non-Electrified Electrified Univ. Conn + Reliability Kerosene Consumption % % % 3000 Gg -15% 50 35% 1700 Gg -65% Emissions (BC) % % 90 GgBC 60% 140 GgBC -20% -60% Health 2-4% of ambient emissions -0.5% -2% Outdoor PM 2.5 Only $ $0.2B $0.75B Deadweight Loss (subsidies) $ $0.45B $0.50B Social Cost of Carbon (CO 2 + $30/ton CO2e) $ Varies depending on what is considered Lam et al. (In Preparation)

18 Indian BC Emissions by Sector Lighting in Non- Electrified Houses IIASA (GAINS), forthcoming

19 Kerosene Bottom Lines 7 9% of kerosene in wick lamps is converted to PM that is nearly pure BC. Aerosol climate forcing on atmosphere and snow from this source is estimated to be 7% of BC forcing by all other energyrelated sources globally Nearly half this kerosene BC comes from India The net effect on climate is definitively positive forcing as coemitted organic carbon is low. Evidence is increasing that household kerosene emissions are particularly damaging to health

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21 Kerosene Bottom Lines cont. Although declining, this year India will still be spending ~$1 billion (6000 cr) to subsidize kerosene Kero cooking has largely disappeared -- mainly lighting now ~40% is diverted to non-household uses very leaky Good alternatives available l solar LED lights l increasing electrification l Even LPG No other major BC source has such readily available alternatives, definitive climate forcing effects, and co-benefits. Complete replacement of kerosene lamps should have high priority for programs that target short-lived climate forcers.

22 Thank you Photo Credit: Ajay Pillarisetti

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25 For what is Kerosene Used In indian Households? Population <16hrs >16hrs <16hrs >16hrs No Elec. <16hrs >16hrs No Elec. <16hrs >16hrs No Elec. <16hrs >16hrs Main Use of Kerosene Urban, < $2 Urban, > $2 Rural, < $1.25 Rural, $ $2.00 Rural, >2.00 (Data: IHDS 2005; Summarized in Lam 2015)

26 Just to show that bottom-up analysis using IHDS survey yields simila r results to that of NSSO Lam 2014

27 Consumption Continues Even Into High Electricity Service Levels Perce ent of Total Koersnee Lighting Pop pulation or Consumption 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cumulative Kerosene Consumption Cumulative Users Hours of Electricity Per Day Lam 2014

28 IIASA Inventory: Kerosene Lighting and Cooking Emissions Relative to All Sources (BC, OC, PM2.5) Have contacted IIASA for this figure

29 Impacts of Measures Affecting Reliance and Financial Access to Kerosene (For Lighting) Scenario Abbreviation Description Baseline Baseline No measures are taken to increase electricity coverage or improve supply beyond changes associated with growing household income. Alternate Scenario: Reliance on Kerosene Universal Connection UC Complete electricity connection coverage by 2030, no additional efforts to improve supply UC + Supply Reliability UCS Universal connection scenario and all houses have >16 hrs of supply per day by 2030 Replacement Technology Solar All kerosene lighting is replaced by household pico-solar lights by 2030 Alternate Scenario: Kerosene Pricing Subsidy Phase-Out SPO All residential kerosene sold at market prices by 2030 Full Subsidy FS All residential kerosene at subsidy price after base year (2005)

30 Project Workflow Lam et al. (In Preparation)

31 Estimated Changes in Kerosene Consumption For Lightin g Lam et al. (In Preparation)

32 Implications for BC Emissions Lam et al. (In Preparation)

33 Economic Impacts Lam et al. (2014) Deadweight Loss 2005 (Million $)

34 Health Impacts: Outdoor Primary PM2.5 Dark grey is 2020, light grey 2030 Applies non-linear dose response on adults > 25yrs: COPD, stroke, IHD, lung cancer Benefits are modest, 0.5-2% change in outdoor PM2.5 burden in 2030 due to changes in kero lighting Not considered are impacts due to household exposure (insufficient exposure reduction estimates) Lam et al. (In Preparation)

35 References: Lam, N. L.; Chen, Y.; Weyant, C.; Venkataraman, C.; Sadavarte, P.; Johnson, M. A.; Smi th, K. R.; Brem, B. T.; Arineitwe, J.; Ellis, J. E.; Bond, T. C., Household Light Make s Global Heat: High Black Carbon Emissions From Kerosene Wick Lamps. Environmental Sci ence & Technology 2012, 46, (24), Lam, N. L. Residential use of of kerosene in low- and middle-income countries: Pollutant emissions, markers of pollution, drivers, and impacts. University of California, Berkel ey, 2014 Lam, N. L., Pachauri S., Purohit P., Nagai Y., Cameron C., Bates, MN., Smith KR. Kerosene light ing in Indian households: drivers of demand and impacts of use for primary and supplemental lighting. (in preparation) Lam, N. L.; Smith, K. R.; Gauthier, A.; Bates, M. N., Kerosene: a review of household uses and their hazards in low- and middle-income countries. Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Parth B: Critical Reviews 2012, 15, (6),