Alternate Futures for Basin Communities

Transcription

1 Alternate Futures for Basin Communities Dr Leonie Pearson & Dr Lain Dare Institute for Governance and Policy Analysis Murray-Darling Basin Futures CRN

2 Introduction and framing Aim of workshop: Share data on imagined futures in 6 communities Frame data for theory Explore data for policy

3 Frame data for theory the start! What capacity is important for purposeful community "a? vision that (e.g. Moser is bigger & Ekstrom, 2010; than Marshall individuals et al. 2012) will lift people and inspire The need them and willingness to work to towards imagine something and undertake for more How risks and uncertainty are managed than themselves Skills in planning learning and reorganising for (STG community member) Flexibility of financial, organisational, human & natural capitals Does capacity vary by type of imagined? (Wilson et al., 2010, Butzler, 2012, Pearson & Pearson, 2012) Postulate that communities want different types of, from: adaptation (small, BAU), transition to transformation (revolution)

4 Methods Inductive scenario building (Kahane 2012, Pearson et al. in review) Qualitative analytical techniques 8 Future Forums in participants mostly community leaders Questions on: measures of progress visions of the future (ideal and reality) Barriers & opportunities St George Leeton Hay Renmark Robinvale Griffith Source: dex.html

5 Share the data: What is progress? What do you think are the key themes that our towns would consider as progress?

6 What is progress? Water & agriculture Business Tourism Education Infra. & facilities Population Youth Griffith Uni. NBN increase engage Hay diversity increase investment increase Leeton water reliant diversity enhance investment increase Renmark access increase engage Robinvale maintain schools housing increase St George maintain increase increase Highly referenced Moderately referenced Absent

7 need more flexible educational institutions to accommodate industry skill sets By Leeton member What is progress? Still want it to be and feel like a country town, but with many great activities/big events By STG member great, fantastic place to raise a family a free lifestyle By Hay member "Working better together as a community" is progress by Griffith member Progress = more connection between cultural groups By Robinvale member

8 What are the ideal futures? Economic Social Environmental Governance Griffith Hay "Farmers key to the future" Diversified ag. + tourism Cohesive Multicultural Diversified population Input to production Energy + uniqueness Better Representation Strong & local Leeton Stronger Cohesive Water critical Strong Renmark Robinvale St George Diverse + non-water reliant Value add industry Intensive water use + tourism Strong Natural advantage Regional Innovative Community Good green image We do it ourselves All contributing Upgrade town Resilient

9 Real futures vary from ideal Barriers Capacity (social leadership, skills, willingness, changing demographics) Governance (policy, coordination, political leadership) Climate (climate variation, water dependence) Economic diversity (irrigated agriculture dependence, manufacturing) Infrastructure & services (transport, health, education) Location/isolation (tyranny of distance) Water (uncertainty, limitations) Opportunities Climate (potential productivity) Capacity (social leadership, skills, willingness, changing demographics) Innovation (history of innovation) Infrastructure & services (water and/or community infrastructure)

10 Continuum of Enables a considered review of challenges inhibiting and opportunities promoting d futures Highlights to all interests the level of necessary to achieve their ideal and/or real futures Helps to understand and prioritise policy and programs that promote sustainable community development Small adjustments to current practices and/or aspirations Some to current practices and/or aspirations Significant to current & new practices and/or aspirations Adaptive Change Transitional Change Transformative Change Little to no (business as usual) Maximum amount of

11 Unpacking the ideal futures - Leeton Economic Diversity R I Little to no Social arena Dependent on water and agriculturalbase for everything if we don t advance that then we don t progress Agriculture is biggest industry, health second yet it needs taxes poured into it Maximum amount of R I Little to no Governance Future of really small communities around here are vital for Leeton future e.g. sporting facilities they use the facilities if they go we become them [dying] we feed off each other To have a community you have to have people Maximum amount of Little to no R we are not important as we are on the wrong side of the range I Local government should be at top and the state at the bottom as decision are made for locals at local level rather than imposing from the top Maximum amount of

12 Unpacking the ideal futures - Robinvale Economic Diversity R I Little to no A diversified industry [economy] reached a peak it the 60/70s the has gone down or backwards Maximum amount of Social arena R I Little to no Governance we are bandied around government and everywhere else that we are a basket case here Lack of leadership load on too few and local government not a trusted and obvious player Maximum amount of R I Little to no A lot of dollars comes into RV but not in a coordinated sense, our challenges is to get that in a coordinated and integrated way Government policy centralization has meant that there really is very little local government input form here Maximum amount of

13 Unpacking the ideal futures - Renmark Economic Diversity Little to no R "building on what we have now...not a new wheel just doing it better and smarter, generating a critical mass" I Maximum amount of Social arena Little to no Governance R People are willing to be adventurous, and innovative I Renmark has lots of good leaders lots of local initiatives Maximum amount of Little to no R Need to recognise strengths of the district and facilitate them, not place bureaucratic restrictions" Diversification of industry is necessary but government seems to be holding all the power, so large projects don t get going that should I Maximum amount of

14 Communities on the continuum Leeton Happy Social capacity +ve Population growth Value-adding Infrastructure Robinvale Social cohesion Social capacity -ve Social infrastructure Social services Education Governance Value-adding Isolation from population Renmark Social capacity +/-ve Social services Population growth Governance Economic diversity Value-adding Infrastructure Robinvale Little to no (business as usual) Leeton Renmark Maximum amount of Adaptive Change Transitional Change Transformative Change

15 Framing data for theory the finish What capacity is important for purposeful community? The need and willingness to imagine and undertake How risks and uncertainty are managed Skills in planning learning and reorganising for Flexibility of financial, organisational, human & natural capitals Building Sustainable Communities CRN project Forum (n=8, 70+ participants) (questions on visions of progress, challenges and mitigation strategies) Interviews (n=150+) (questions on community governance, leadership, networks) Regional Wellbeing Survey Secondary data sources (Census, ABS, ABARES, departmental statistics)

16 Goal Limits Scope Pathways Adaption Transition Transformation Functional persistence Achieve full policy Reconfigure the systems in a changing social and potential through the and institutions environmental context fulfilment of rights and obligations Within current Within current policy None structures & policy Change in technology, management practice & organisations Change in governance practices to secure procedural justice Overarching of social norms and political regime Type of required Marginal Incremental Reform Dominant analytical Perspective Socio-ecological systems and adaptive management Governance and technological- regime analysis Discourse, ethics and political-economy Examples No regrets action that is widely supported in society, e.g. changing petrol to lead free. Accept the wants of society but the delivery of them to align with desired sustainability goals. E.g. local production of organic food Change the wants of society to align with sustainability goals. E.g. the end of apartheid in South Africa Source: adapted from Pelling 2010 and Redclift, 2002

17 Potential policy implications What policy implications do you think this work has? Highlights community complexity and difference hence need for different solutions and/or pathways to development Explores interdependencies within policy arenas, i.e. adequate social infrastructure (e.g. houses, recreation facilities) is not just a social policy concern but also an economic policy concern Unpacks the influence of governance capacity and arrangements, guiding the development of new governance approaches that suit the communities capacity, context and aspirations

18 Thank you - Questions Dr Leonie Pearson leonie.pearson@canberra.edu.au Dr Lain Dare lain.dare@canberra.edu.au

19 References Butzer KW (2012) Collapse, environment, and society. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109: Kahane AM (2012) Transformative scenario planning: Working together to the future, Berrett-Koehler Publishers, San Francisco. Marshall NA, Park SE, Adger, WN, Brown, K, Howde, SM (2012) Transformational Capacity and the Influence of Place and Identity. Environ Res. Lett. 7(3), Moser SC, Ekstrom, JA (2010)A framework for diagnose barriers to climate adaptation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107: Pearson, L., Wilson, S., Kashima, Y. Lusher, D. and Pearson, C., (submitted) Imagined futures in Murray-Darling Basin communities: Mental models of the past and future scenarios. Public Policy Pearson, L. and Pearson, C. (2012) Societal Collapse or Transformation and Resilience, Letter to Editor, PNAS- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, online [ Pelling, M Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation, Routledge, London. Redclift, M. (2002). Sustainable development: Exploring the contradictions. Routledge. Wilson, S., Pearson, L., Kashima, Y. Lusher, D. and Pearson, C., (2013) Separating adaptive maintenance (resilience) and transformative capacity of socio-ecological systems, Ecology and Society 18(1): 22.