Using New Census Job-to-Job Flows Data For Regional Analysis:

Transcription

1 Using New Census Job-to-Job Flows Data For Regional Analysis: Focus on economic migration in New England LED Webinar June 2016 Joyce Hahn Analyst Abt. Associates & Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program Center for Economic Studies U.S. Census 1

2 Overview of Webinar: Overview of the data Accessing the data Taking the data for a drive: How fluid are borders in New England? Which industries are driving worker reallocation in New England? Walkthrough of how to generate examples above 2

3 Job-to-Job Flows (J2J) fills an important data gap: In 2000, about ½ of all hires were workers moving from one job to another. Most job vacancies are not for entry-level workers Most job moves are moves up the job ladder ½ of wage growth for young workers is from job change (Topel & Ward, 1992). Procyclical worker reallocation from lower paying to higher paying firms (Haltiwanger, Hyatt, & McEntarfer, 2015; Kahn & McEntarfer, 2014). 3

4 National Job-to-Job Flows: Steep decline in job change in last two recessions 8% 7% Hires from persistent nonemployment Separations to persistent nonemployment 6% Share of employment 5% 4% 3% Job to Job flows (separations and hires from employment) 2% J2J job to job hire rate J2J separations to persistent nonemp J2J job to job separation rate J2J hires from persistent nonemp Note: Source: Job to Job Flows, national data. Shaded regions indicate NBER recession quarters. All data are seasonally adjusted. 4

5 Some examples of how the data can be used: Better understand worker turnover Job-to-job moves vs. separations to nonemployment Can also use OD data to look at workers moving from one industry to another Look at economic migration across labor markets What labor markets are we losing workers to? Which workers? What industries in my state are importing workers from other states? 5

6 Key J2J Files: Count and rate files Job-to-job flows Hires Separations Employment flows Hires Separations Origin-destination files Job-to-job flows Currently available by: National and state By worker demographics By industry sector, firm age and size Seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data Currently available by: Origin State and Industry by Destination State and Industry Origin State to Destination State by worker demographics Origin State and (Age/Size) by Destination State and (Age/Size) 6

7 Click on the Data tab 7

8 Scroll to the bottom Select the first link in the Job to Job Flow (J2J) (Beta) section 8

9 Scroll to the selector tool Select your state/territory Select j2j for Counts, j2jr for Rates, and j2jod for OD data 9

10 Click on View Files 10

11 Taking the J2J data for a drive: Example 1: How fluid are borders in New England? 11

12 Between 2010 and 2014, New England states experienced net employment losses through worker reallocation to other states

13 Net employment change has varied over time but is increasingly displaying a downward trend

14 Where are Connecticut s workers going?

15 Where are Connecticut s workers going?

16 What type of workers is Connecticut losing?

17 What type of workers is Connecticut losing?

18 Where are New Hampshire workers going?

19 Where are New Hampshire workers going?

20 What type of workers is New Hampshire losing?

21 What type of workers is New Hampshire losing?

22 To sum up: From 2010 to 2014, New England states have been losing workers, on net, to other states through job-tojob moves Workers are generally moving to other New England states and the Sunbelt region They are typically younger from all types of educational backgrounds; however, older workers make up a surprisingly substantial proportion and appear to be leaving for the Middle Atlantic states 22

23 Example 2: Which industries are driving job-to-job flows in New England? 23

24 New England states are losing workers from low-wage sectors and temp help to employment opportunities in other states, importing labor in higher wage sectors

25 A more detailed look at Massachusetts

26 A more detailed look at Vermont

27 How to do the examples shown here: A walkthrough of how to use the beta data A J2J data application is coming! But until it s here things are a bit more basic 27

28 Example 1: How to get data to make this map for Maine 28

29 Pull state level data Select Maine Select the OD file Grab the state file 29

30 Keep geography, year, quarter, geography_orig, EE, and AQHire. Delete all other columns. 30

31 Filter year and quarter to obtain the period of interest. (In the interest of simplicity, let s choose only one quarter: 2014Q3) 31

32 Sum EE and AQHire to get all job to job flows, by origin and destination state pairs 32

33 Look at outflows rather than net flows for the sake of time. Filter so that geography_orig=

34 Lastly, filter geography so that it excludes 00 and 23. This removes flows to jobs in all states and in state moves, respectively. 34

35 Example 2: How to make this bar chart for Rhode Island 35

36 Pull industry level data Select Rhode Island Select the OD file Grab the industry sector file 36

37 Keep geography, industry, year, quarter, geography_orig, industry_orig, EE, and AQHire. Delete all other columns. 37

38 Filter year and quarter to obtain the period of interest. (In the interest of simplicity, let s choose only one quarter: 2014Q3) 38

39 Sum EE and AQHire to get all job to job flows, by origin and destination state pairs and industry 39

40 To get gross outflows, filter so that on the origin side, geography_orig= 44 and industry_orig^= 00 and on the destination side, geography= 00 and industry=

41 To get gross inflows, filter so that on the destination side, geography= 44 and industry^= 00 and on the origin side, geography_orig= 00 and industry_orig=

42 In a new spreadsheet, create an industry column with NAICS code in the rows. Then, pull in outflows and inflows data using the vlookup command. 42

43 In a new spreadsheet, create an industry column with NAICS code in the rows. Then, pull in outflows and inflows data using the vlookup command. 43

44 To obtain net flows, subtract gross outflows from gross inflows. 44

45 Sort by net flows, largest to smallest. 45

46 Rhode Island, 2014Q3 Industry Net employment change 46

47 Questions or comments: 47