Modeling Current and Future Rail Network Level of Service Conditions Using GIS Case Study from the Minnesota Rail Plan

Transcription

1 Modeling Current and Future Rail Network Level of Service Conditions Using GIS Case Study from the Minnesota Rail Plan presented to AASHTO GIS in Transportation (GIS-T) 2012 National Conference Loveland, Colorado presented by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Kevin Ebright-McKeehan April 17, 2012 Transportation leadership you can trust.

2 Overview Minnesota Rail Plan Objective Develop an overall vision for effective utilization of the state s rail network and its future development For Passenger Rail Identify priority rail corridors, programs, and projects that will offer effective improvements or expansion for passenger travel in and out of Minnesota For Freight Rail Enhance freight access to markets and efficient, competitive services to rail customers, as well as improvements to overall freight flows and logistics 2

3 Overview (continued) Why is this rail plan unique?» GIS in central analytical role» Award-winning plan Winner 2010 FHWA Transportation Excellence Award Link: Quote: The judges noted the plan s data-driven approach 3

4 Overview (continued) The role of Geographic Information Systems (GIS)» To provide analytical support for the plan GIS processes Calculated current level of service (LOS) conditions Modeled future LOS / scenarios Evaluated system improvements» How did GIS fulfill this role? Data organized in manner to maximize data capabilities GIS buy-in/adoption of organization scheme Creation and use of Linear Referencing System (LRS) Use of dynamic events in modeling 4

5 Rail System Evaluation Process Overview The Challenges Capture real-time operational rail data» Given the proprietary nature of rail data Develop a model to capture current and future operational aspects of the Minnesota rail system» LOS» Bottlenecks» Scenario analysis» Costs of improvements The Process Create Organizational Scheme Collect Data Determine Current Conditions Stakeholder Validation Model Future Conditions Model Future Scenarios and Costs 5

6 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 1 Build a Linear Referencing System Overview of LRS» LRS allows for the centralization and modeling of data associated with a measured linear feature or network Source: ESRI» Common uses Source: ESRI Analysis of disparate data relating to a common network Mileposting repository 6

7 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 1 Build a Linear Referencing System (continued) 7 Rationale why bother?» Most rail operations data are linear with definitive termini points» Tool needed to inventory all rail line data via mileposts Ex.: Where is the automated block signaling (ABS) on the Staples sub?» Provide basis for modeling current and future conditions» Prove basis for making improvement recommendations Property Value Property Value RID (BNSF-Hinckley Sub) 22 Use Rail Seg ID 3 Number of Tracks (ratio) 1.14 Begin MP FRA Track Class 4 End MP Clearance Envelope Yes Owner BNSF 286K capability Yes Users1 UP TrCts 14 Users2 CP TrkSpeed 50 Users3 Reason for Begin Junction Reason for End Junction Segment Type Main Segment Length Active / Inactive Active

8 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 1 Build a Linear Referencing System (continued) Results from Coon Creek Junction 8

9 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 2 Data Collection Data needed for data-driven analysis» Data collected on 2 tracks» Baseline data used American Association of Railroads (AAR) MnDOT» Field data Team collected data from railroads Used to quality check and round out AAR and MnDOT data AAR/MnDOT Rail Line Data Geography Signalization General Location of Double/Triple Track Ownership Data Collection Team Rail Line Inventory.gdb QA/QC of AAR/MnDOT Data Track Ratio (Sidings, Double Mains) Speed (Slow Orders) Track Class Most Data Stored in Tables for Use with LRS 9

10 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 3 Current Rail System Conditions 10 LRS + data with mileposts created a comprehensive picture» Allowed level of service calculation Signalization Track ratio Speed Train volumes Train types» LOS D or worse is nearing capacity and functionally deficient» Statewide 2009 rail line level-of-service ratings

11 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 3 Current Rail System Conditions (continued) Allowed for detailed snapshot of bottlenecks Train Counts Traffic Control Method Level of Service Track Ratio Freight Train Speed 11

12 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 4 Stakeholder Involvement But is that picture up-to-date?» Publically available sources» Rail data is often proprietary Feedback sought from railroads, MnDOT modal experts, etc.» 95% of system up-to-date» Example of constructive feedback Twin Cities and Western 12

13 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 5 Future Rail System Conditions Modeled Conditions for 2030 Coon Creek Junction Programmed Expected/ Funded Rail Improvements Level of Service Calculated New Train Volumes -Modeled traffic and train type -Used Waybill-to-Transearch xwalk Generated New Level-of-Service Ratings 13

14 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 5 Future Rail System Conditions No-build-increased service statewide scenario for

15 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 6 Future Scenarios and Costs An array of upgrades and scenarios considered» Different combinations of passenger service High-speed rail Commuter rail Service to Duluth» Track ratio and/or signal upgrade» Level of service of C must be achieved, along with other minimal standards» Cost assigned to each type of upgrade» Event tables and dynamic segmentation used to quickly evaluate options Passenger Service Scenarios Other Variables Menu of Expansion Choices Track Upgrades Signal Upgrades 15

16 Rail System Evaluation Process Step 6 Future Scenarios and Costs 2030 Base LOS Prior to Improvements 2030 Preferred Scenario LOS Post- Improvements 16

17 Results Identified 7 Phase I passenger rail corridors and costs Identified improvements necessary for pass. services 17

18 Results Detailed freight upgrades for each railroad and costs necessary to achieve 2030 LOS C or higher Subdivision 2009 Cost to Upgrade (Millions of Dollars) 2030 Cost to Upgrade (Millions of Dollars) Bemidji $29.6 Detroit Lakes $84.0 Elbow Lake $38.5 MN&S $24.4 Noyes $28.2 Paynesville $48.2 DM&E Waseca $77.5 ICE Owatonna $1.4 Cost of CP Upgrades $

19 Conclusions Rail system evaluation process revealed» GIS-centric analysis can form backbone of rail plan» A basic LRS organizes vast amounts of data» Modeling with dynamic events allows evaluation multiple scenarios 19

20 Acknowledgments From Cambridge Systematics, Inc.» Andreas Aeppli, Dan Beagan, Marc Cutler, Nathan Higgins, Kimon Proussaloglou, Erika Witzke From TKDA, Inc.» Tim Havlicek, Jim Hoschka From Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc.» Paul Danielson, Brian Smalkoski From MnDOT» Dave Christianson, Bill Gardner, Dan Krom 20 Others» Minnesota s railroads» My wife Amy and the boys Kellan, Finn, and Noah

21 21 Questions?

22 Thank You! Contact Info: Kevin Ebright-McKeehan GIS Analyst Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Harris Bank Building 115 S. LaSalle St., Ste Chicago, IL Telephone: