RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS OF TECHNICAL - ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY OF LTO DUKOVANY NPP

Transcription

1 RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS OF TECHNICAL - ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY OF LTO DUKOVANY NPP ČEZ, a.s. Dušan Pluhař Lyon 4th International Conference on NPP Life Management

2 TECHNICAL-ECONOMIC STUDY - OBJECTIVE Purpose: Basis for decisions on Dukovany NPP operation after 2025 Objective: Determining the optimal LTO variant, basic assumptions and conditions Appraised variants of operation: +20 (up to , 50 years) and +30 (up to , 60 years) Objective of the economic part: Determine the NPV considered options such as LTO metric comparison and selection of the optimum (the sum of the discounted annual cash flow) A processing methodology was presented in Espoo 2015 Outputs from the assessment of the technical part, risk analysis and preliminary (not final) results of cost drivers assessment was presented in Vienna 2016 Now present the outputs of the economic evaluation and the overall outputs of the study 1

3 MODEL INPUTS FOR THE CALCULATION OF NPV AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS APPROXIMATION, PREDICTION Long-term achievable electrical performance of units, unit efficiency and self-consumption Availability (length of outages and failure due to implementation of the measure) Variable costs: nuclear fuel costs non fuel costs (cooling water and energy costs) fee for the permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel Fix costs: personal expenses overhead costs and insurance and headquarter overhead costs maintenance costs taxes decommissioning costs (creation of the reserve) CAPEX (the largest input - the set of cost measures, the output from the cost drivers assessment in the TES technical part) Depreciation (historical and future investments, spent nuclear fuel containers and fuel) Inflation and escalation coefficients (for different investment types) Forex a WACC (weighted average costs of capital) The calculated inputs - sales, gross margin, corp. tax, total depreciation CF DCF NPV 2

4 ESTIMATE OF CAPEX+OPEX LTO +10, +20 AND +30 THE OUTPUT FROM THE COST DRIVERS ASSESSMENT Costs are set conservatively, at nominal prices 2017 The cost of the LTO+30 is double compared to the LTO+20 Costs after 2037 in the LTO20 variant are spent on expanding the spent fuel storage 3

5 Costs (mil. Euro) LTO +30 X LTO +20 LTO +20 X LTO +10 LTO +10 X LTO 0 Maintenance costs

6 FINAL RESULTS OF COST DRIVERS ASSESSMENT COMPARISON RESULTS 2008, 2013, 2016 In 2008 was created first T-E study. In 2013 partial update for making Long term conception of Dukovany site, only cost drivers refer to systems, structures and construction, not other drivers. From 2014 to 2016 is created new T-E study. Main differences among them are: 40% higher total LTO costs in 2013 than 2008, above all due to +10 delay of many actions, post Fukushima actions. For +20 and +30 difference is around 15% - more knowledges - AMP In 2016 more individual actions, more detailed assessment, inputs from new developed Health Reports, more systematic work. Result is 20-25% higher costs in 2016 than 2013 and very different layout of costs, main difference is for +30 option Conclusion and experience: costs still rise with new knowledges, predictions and assessments are too optimistic. 5

7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, INPUT FOR DOWN/UP SIDE SCENARIOS Sensitivity analysis - changing NPV depending on parameter change Purpose - for the right choice for deviations up / down side scenarios Performed on the main parameters of the model: Availability Nuclear fuel costs Cooling water costs Fee for the permanent storage of spent nuclear fuel Personal expenses Maintenance costs CAPEX (capital expenses) Decommissioning costs Special case is electricity price - the greatest impact on NPV 4 scenarios of the prediction of the development of electricity prices (price scenarios) For the same price scenario has the greatest impact on the NPV change unit availability In addition, investments (CAPEX) and fuel and maintenance costs Down/up side scenarios included a change in availability of ±1%, CAPEX +10% (LTO +30y +20%), tax utilization, potentials, decommissioning costs +25% and change of methodology 6

8 SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRICITY PRICES, DOWN/UP SIDE SCENARIOS - NPV RESISTANCE 4 scenarios of electricity price developments were used to calculate NPVs (SA price E): Stress test scenario SVET8 (lowest coal & oil prices, EU ETS collapse, energy savings) Inflation scenario (forward extrapolated by inflation) Central scenario (fundamental analysis ČEZ fuel prices, RSE, electricity market) Analytic scenario (average of analysts' views on the development of electricity prices) The reference scenario is Central, based on the resistance (robustness) scenarios - deviations of input parameters based on sensitivity analyzes: Downside scenario - worsening of parameters with the highest impact on NPV, known significant risk (CAPEX, availability, decommissioning reserve) Scenario of reduced operation - early closure of units in the period due to meet critical risks with such an impact (unexpectedly) Zero scenario - termination of units operation in 2017 as a borderline case NPV for comparison (decommissioning costs, operational and overhead costs after shutdown) Upside scenario - improving the NPV result (potentials, availability, corporate tax) 7

9 Mil. $ Mil. $ Mil. $ Mil. $ NPV OF SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRICITY PRICES, OPTIMAL VARIANT LTO +20 (50Y) Stress test scenario Inflation scenario LTO10 LTO20 LTO30 LTO10 LTO20 LTO30 Central scenario Analytic scenario NPV LTO+20 is almost the same in the central (reference) scenario as for +30, in the stress test it is significantly less negative, in the inflation order higher. LTO+30 is loaded greater uncertainties. Best by NPV and development of electricity prices - 50y of operation in LTO20 8 LTO10 LTO20 LTO30 LTO10 LTO20 LTO30

10 LTO+20 (OPERATION IN => 50 YEARS) RESISTANCE TO RISKS AND DOWNSIDES For LTO EDU represents commodity risk Decommissioning nuclear (reserve) and non-nuclear parts of Dukovany, operational and overhead costs after termination of units operation Zero scenario Financial stress test has shown that even sudden closure in shows NPV NPV LTO10 9

11 RISK ANALYSIS OUTPUTS - OPTIMAL VARIANT LTO +20 (50Y) Risk analysis is one of the basic part of the T-E study. According with standard ISO Outputs of risk analysis The risk register contains 111 risks, 74 opened Some of them are critical risks - high score (red) in inherent level for both LTO variants. Their impact is the negative or weakly positive LTO economy or the LTO's end-of-life shock before the target date. A significant part of the risks, even critical, are growing over time LTO high risks at inherent level and 5 after application of measures, LTO high risks at inherent and 11 at residual level LTO +20 is less affected by the risks, optimal variant 10

12 RISK ANALYSIS MAP OF RISKS 11

13 RISK ANALYSIS KEY ASPECTS AND RISKS OF LTO The length of operation determines mainly the development of legislation, political decisions and the price of electricity Legislation Safety requirements (extreme events, human activity, ) Development of legislation and regulation (fees, costs - decommissioning of NPP, permanent storage, EIA on LTO, EC notification, radioactive waste management,...) Policy Change of public opinion, politicians' attitudes (events, unstable operation, accidents) Pressure of NGOs, international institutions and governments (G, AUS,...) Economy Long-term decline in electricity prices Structure of supply and demand (RES, decentralization, capacity payments,...) Costs of refurbishment and impact on availability Conditions Availability of qualified personnel, loss of know-how, process quality 12 Stability of suppliers Lifetime of main components - technical risks (internals, liner, cabling, main condenser pipe

14 TECHNICAL-ECONOMIC STUDY OF LTO DUKOVANY NPP RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The optimal variant in terms of NPV, resistance downside scenarios, uncertainties and risks, is the operation until (50y), with the possibility of longer operation if the development of the main determinants (electricity prices, investments and their impact on availability, uncertainty and risk) will positive. To ensure the efficient operation of the horizon optimal variant is in addition to ensuring the required state of technology and project and mitigating the most serious risks, it is necessary to fulfill other basic prerequisites and necessary conditions in key areas: ensuring a sufficient number of sufficiently qualified and motivated staff ensuring the highest level of professionalism and quality of all management processes ensuring a functional and comprehensive knowledge management in nuclear processes maintaining a high level of acceptability of nuclear energy and the operation of the Dukovany NPP by public long-term conservation and increasing the capabilities and stability of key suppliers Fulfilling conditions contributes or leads to the mitigation of some critical risks. 13

15 CONCLUSION THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION