Modernization of the Hydrometeorological Service: Challenges and Opportunities

Transcription

1 V.N. Dyadyuchenko Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) Modernization of the Hydrometeorological Service: Challenges and Opportunities April 2005 Vena, Austria

2 Changes in a number of hydrometeorological stations and posts posts stations

3 In the Resolution ROLE AND OPERATION OF NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES (NMHSs) The Fourteenth CONGRESS of the WMO INVITES Members to recognize that the unique nature of meteorological and related services provision requires: a commitment of governments to maintain and strengthen the basic meteorological and related infrastructure operated by their NMHSs in the public interest a high level of international cooperation effective partnership between NMHSs and the media, academia and private meteorological sectors; Congress invited Members to continue their efforts in ensuring representation of WMO and NMHSs, where possible, in events of relevance to the development of meteorology and hydrology and to their application to sustainable development.

4 HMHS s mission is to ensure hydrometeorological safety of the country, provide public services in the field of hydrometeorology and related fields and monitor the environmental pollution STRATEGIC GOALS OF NMHS To provide timely warnings of hazardous hydrometeorological events and high levels of the environmental pollution. To meet the requirements of the Government, physical and legal bodies for hydrometeorological and heliogeophysical information as well as for information on the state and pollution of the environment.

5 Why is complex modernization of NMHS necessary? Population Economy sectors Authorities Hydrometeorological Production SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION PROCESSING SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION COLLECTION AND DISSEMINATION SYSTEM OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS

6 Main objectives of the Project (by the example of the NMHS of Russia) are to: increase the accuracy of forecasts provided to the public and economy of Russia through the modernization and upgrading of the physical infrastructure and strengthening of institutional and management structure of NMHS; enable the Russian Federation to fulfill commitments in the field of the international hydrometeorological data exchange; establish and develop mechanisms of interaction between Regional Centres responsible for issuing of forecasts and warnings particularly in case of hazardous events;

7 Main objectives of the Project are to meet the requirements of the public and sectors of economy for hydrometeorological information and information on the state and pollution of the environment; enhance safety of the public and reduce the adverse impacts of the natural environment; ensure efficient management in weather-sensitive sectors of economy and timely and adequate response to natural and man-caused emergencies.

8 Key components of NMHS modernization (by the example of the NMHS of Russia): Modernization of the key components of NMHS s meteorological and hydrological networks including development of the observational networks and improvement of their instrumentation basis, equipping of the network with automated systems, installation of new or replacement of outdated meteorological radars Development of automated systems to collect and process data on hazardous events and to provide warnings to different relevant bodies operating in the boundary regions of neighboring countries

9 Modernization of observational networks: Improvement of the storm warning system in the area near the largest cities and vulnerable coastal zones Technical upgrade of prognostic centres and computer facilities Modernization of communication and data transmission systems Technical upgrade of archiving systems and tools

10 Modernization of observational networks: Development of the system for exchange of long-term observational data with the aim of accumulating and using them for the improvement of regional forecast models and for operational activities as well as for analyses to minimize economic losses from impact of hazardous events Strengthening of institutional structures to improve dissemination of emergency information and emergency preparedness

11 Modernization of communication and data transmission systems (on the example of the NMHS of Russia) Modernization of telecommunications connecting World Meteorological Centre (WMC) in Moscow, Regional Meteorological Centres in Novosibirsk and Khabarovsk, MGO in Saint Petersburg and data archive in Obninsk as well as well the regional telecommunication network of Roshydromet. Modernization and re-equipment of the data collection system and system of data transmissions from observational stations to regional and main data centres. To make the above modernization and re-equipment possible it is planned to install servers and message switching system equipment in 30 regional and 24 subregional centres and to procure telecommunication equipment for 400 key and remote stations. It expected to procure packet-switched communication equipment for hard-to-access stations, including stations located in the Far North, where traditional communications are not efficient, and satellite communication equipment for selected stations as appropriate.

12 Under the Project it is expected to purchase and put into operation: Supercomputer system (capacity is no less than 4 Tflops). High-capacity computers (no less than 200 Gflops) equipped with network and communication tools. Automated archive systems(150 TB). Advanced meteorological Doppler radars, upper air radars, upper air remote sensing systems, automatic meteorological stations.

13 Technical modernization of the data archiving system (RIHMI-WDC, Obninsk) installation of powerful servers, software, data storage facilities and operational archive equipment; equipping of automatic archive systems with discs of adequate operational (about 40 TB) and working (about TB) storage capacity; provision to the Centre of adequate resources to receive and store 2 TB of information per year; purchase of servers with disk information storage, virtual servers with tape carriers and tape library of sufficient volume, tape driver and disk memory of large capacity; establishment of modern robotized library and repository for documents and magnetic tapes; modernization of LAN archive making the rate of information transmission comparable with the Ethernet standard (100 Мb / sec) for key elements of the system and 1 Gb capacity main line for the Ethernet network; re-equipment of about 120 working stations, which may require additional slide show equipment (printers, plotters, wall displays).

14 MAIN AREAS OF OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS MODERNIZATION Upper air network installation of new upper air systems at 45 sites; modernization of equipment at 40 stations Meteorological radar network installation of 8 Doppler radars for storm warning systems; modernization of 20 meteorological radar Surface network (surface meteorological observations including actinometrical and hydrological observations) Satellite observations installation of automated meteorological and hydrological systems and instruments at 900 hydrometeorological stations and 800 hydrological posts installation of 16 satellite information receiving stations and several satellite communication stations

15 Strengthening of the institutional and management structure, improvement of information dissemination and emergency preparedness: formulating and testing on the basis of the international experience of the guidelines for the operation of Roshydromet organizations; improvement of emergency warning systems and forms and methods of providing information to users; strengthening of the institutional structure working out of new principles and methods of operation to strengthen the institutional structure of Roshydromet and make it the advanced, efficient and user-oriented agency; formulation of new requirements to the modernized system of Roshydromet; development of the user-oriented system development of the system (database, networks and software) to enable data collection, accumulation, representation and dissemination in a user friendly form; improvement of emergency preparedness and response elaboration of more efficient emergency warning procedures.

16 Training of Roshydromet specialists under the Project «Modernization and Technical Re-equipment equipment of Roshydromet Institutions and Organizations» Technologies of operational forecasting at WMC Moscow Lines of modernizations Training of the first team of Roshydromet specialists at specialized centres of technology and equipment providers 16 specialists. About 270 specialists Training of the main body of Roshydromet specialists at Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia and Main Computer Centre of Roshydromet 58 specialists. About 900 specialist.

17 Expected outcomes pertinent to development of hydrodynamical forecasts resulted from the Project Modernization and Technical Re-equipment equipment of Roshydromet Institutions and Organizations Implementation of the global spectral kmresolution atmospheric model, allowing the quality of hydrodynamical forecasts with the lead time of 1-7 days to be competitive and to comply with the world standards. Implementation of the statistical model to predict basic meteorological elements for 5000 points worldwide with the lead time of up to 8 days. Implementation of the first home-made technology for hydrodynamic-statistical longrange forecasts of pressure and temperature with the averaging of 10, 20and 30 days Putting into test operation of the meso-scale hydrodynamic 1km-resolution model for prediction of basic meteorological elements in the central region of Russia. Putting into routine operation of the regional kmresolution weather forecast model for the whole territory of Russia Implementation of the statistical model to predict basic meteorological elements in 200 points of the Far East region of Russia with the lead time of up to 5 days Implementation of the mesoscale 5-10 km resolution atmospheric model in Novosibirsk.

18 Inter-annual variation in a number of hazardous events causing damage to the public and economy of Russia (by years)

19 Economic loss from all types of hazardous natural events (data provided by the Ministry of Emergencies of Russia): years billion. roubles million $ US

20 Growth of economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information in (million US $) $ by the example of the NMHS of Russia 400,0 350,0 393,1 300,0 240,0 250,0 171,3 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0, Economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information (million US $)

21 Economic efficiency of hydrometeorological services provided to the economy (by the example of the NMHS of Russia) 6,0 5,5 5,7 5,0 4,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0, Economic efficiency of hydrometeorological services

22 Economic benefits from the use of hydrometeorological information by sectors in % (by the example of the NMHS of Russia) 9,0% 14,4% 32,3% 5,0% 6,6% 32,7% Fuel&Energy Transport Utilities Building Agriculture Others

23 Economic value of hydrometeorological services provided to the economy (by the example of the NMHS of Russia) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Agriculture Sea transport Building Civil aviation Losses that can be prevented at present Losses that can be prevented due to the Project (potentially prevented losses) Losses that cannot be prevented

24 Estimation of economic value of the Project (by the example of the NMHS of Russia) Methodology the economic value of the Project is estimated on the basis of the comparison of the potentially prevented losses with the costs required to prevent these losses in different sectors of economy and the costs of technical modernization planned under the Project.

25 Outcomes of estimation of the economic value of the Project (by the example of the NMHS of Russia) Direct losses from adverse weather, hydrological events and natural disasters will reduce by 8,5% on the average. Municipal services and utilities will be most sensitive to the improvement of weather forecasts and warnings. In this sector losses are expected to be reduced by 12%. The economic effect of the Project in the short-term term perspective will reach million US$ exceeding the costs on implementation of the Project significantly.

26 Conclusion 1. Complex modernization of HMHS systems will provide complex effect for users from most of the economy sectors.

27 Conclusion 2. It is important to stress that the funds allocated by the Government to HMHS for the maintenance and modernization (observation networks, systems of data collecting and processing), should not be considered as just expenses. It is more correct to call them investments which will have the following recompenses for the population and economy: - reduction of life threat, - reduction of damages caused by weather, - economic benefits

28 Conclusion 1. Modernization of NMHS will strengthen international cooperation between the WMO Member-States and make a significant contribution to the international data exchange development.

29 THANK YOU