Transportation Opportunities & Obstacles

Transcription

1 Transportation Opportunities & Obstacles Presented By: Charles Shorty Whittington President of Grammer Industries, Inc. The Greatest Spectacle in Logistics!

2 Comparative Growth in Modal Operating Equipment Productivity 350% 300% Ship Cube 250% 200% Train Cube 150% 100% Train Weight 50% 0% Truck Cube Truck Weight Source: Wilbur Smith Associates

3 Growth in Tonnage 90% 80% Rail Intermodal 70% 60% Air 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Trucking Waterborne Rail Carload Pipeline Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022

4 Distribution of Tonnage by Mode 2010 vs Water 6.7% Pipeline 10.7% Rail Intermodal 1.2% Air 0.1% Water 6.1% Rail Intermodal 1.8% Pipeline 9.2% 2022 Air 0.1% Rail Carload 14.1% Truck 67.2% Rail Carload 12.8% Truck 70.0% Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022

5 300% 275% 250% Tonnage Growth 2010 to 2012 & Market Share in 2022 (Baseline Forecast) Rail Intermodal 1.8% 225% 200% Other 28.2% 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% Rail Intermodal Truck 70.0% 50% Trucking 25% 0% Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022

6 Distribution of Tonnage by Miles: 2007 All Modes & All Commodities % % % > % Only 13.4% of freight tonnage travels over 500 miles Only 8.5% of freight tonnage travels over 750 miles % < % % Source: 2007 Commodity Flow Survey (Census Bureau)

7 2010 Competitive Freight Among Truck and Rail Tonnage Trucks and Trains Compete on a Very Limited Basis Competitive Truck Freight, 0.6 Competitive Rail Freight, 0.3 Non- Competitive Rail, 1.6 Non- Competitive Truck, 8.5 Note: Maximum competitive freight is less than 1 billion tons in a total market (truck and rail only) of 11 billion tons, or less than 10%. Competitive freight includes all freight traveling at least 500 miles, but excludes coal tonnage. There is a significant amount of time definite freight in this category that really isn t competitive, but it is included. So in reality, the competitive market is even smaller than suggested here. Billions of Tons Sources: Commodity Flow Survey (US Census Bureau) and ATA

8 Tonnage Growth 2010 to 2022 & Market Share in 2022 (Alternative Forecast #1) 300% 275% 250% 225% 200% 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% Instead of growing 85.8% from 2010 to 2022, we doubled Intermodal s growth rate all at the expense of trucking the impact is very small. Rail Intermodal Rail Intermodal Other 28.3% Rail Intermodal 2.6% Truck 69.1% 50% Trucking 25% 0% Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022

9 Tonnage Growth 2010 to 2012 & Market Share in % (Alternative Forecast #2) 275% 250% 225% 200% 175% 150% 125% 100% Rail Intermodal Instead of growing 85.8% from 2010 to 2022, we tripled Intermodal s growth rate all at the expense of trucking the impact is very small. Other 28.3% Rail Intermodal 3.4% Truck 68.3% 75% 50% 25% Trucking 0% Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022

10 Real For-Hire Trucking Revenue/Mile Index Includes TL & LTL; 1980 = 100 In 2010, real (inflation adjusted) average revenue per mile was 34% below Source: American Trucking Associations

11 Revenue per Ton Index Rail includes rail carload and rail intermodal Trucking including TL, LTL, and Private Carriage Percent changes are from 2000 to =100 Rail +63% Trucking +23% Sources: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2022 & ATA

12 Top Industry Obstacles CSA Hours of Service Obstacles Electronic On-Board Recorders Drivers

13 CSA Statistics Since Launch (data effective June 2011 and provided by Vigillo 761,199 active motor carriers in the SMS Database 91,918 have sufficient inspection data to generate a CSA Score in any BASIC (12% of active carriers) 51,726 have an alert in at least one public BASIC (6.8% of regulated, 56.3% of those with sufficient data) Obstacles 2,725,000 drivers employed by the 91,918 who are in the crucible of CSA (55% of the driving capacity of the industry) Fatigued Driving is #1 Alert BASIC

14 How It Works Safety Fitness Determined (Subject to Future Rulemaking) Safety Events (Roadside Inspections, Crashes) Violations categorized and placed into BASICs BASICs Behavioral Analysis and Safety Improvement Categories Carriers selected for interventions Violations weighted Obstacles Carriers ranked Measures adjusted for size/exposure

15 BASICs Behavioral Analysis and Safety Improvement Categories 1. Unsafe Driving 2. Fatigued Driving Roadside Inspection/Crash 3. Driver Fitness 4.Drugs/Alcohol Obstacles 5. Vehicle Maintenance 6. Cargo Related 7. Crash Indicator

16 Obstacles Thresholds for Intervention

17 Hours of Service at-a-glance Obstacles Original Rule Published: 1938 Initial Attempt at Re-Write: 1962 Framework for Current Rule Implemented: Jan 2004 Change to Sleeper Berth Provision in 2005 Proposed Rule published Dec. 23, 2010 Maximum daily driving time = 10 hours (reduction) Maximum daily working time window reduced by an additional hour Abolishes the 34-hour restart as it exists today 60 day review/comment period

18 Electronic Logging Devices Would Require EOBRs For All Drivers Currently Using Paper Logs 100 Air Mile Radius and Short Haul Drivers Would Be Exempt Obstacles Paper logs to be used when conditions of exemption not met Compliance Required 3 Years After Final Rule

19 Obstacles

20 Obstacles

21 Weekly Earnings $900 $800 Weekly Earnings = Pay Rate * Amount Worked (mileage or hours) Trucking $700 $ Q1: 2011 Construction Manufacturing Obstacles $500 $400 Trucking = Long-Haul TL Drivers Source: U.S. Department of Labor

22 Real Weekly Earnings of TL Drivers $500 Average Weekly Earnings of Production Workers Adjusted for Inflation; Dollars $400 Obstacles $300 $200 $100 $0 Weekly Earnings = Pay Rate * Amount Worked (mileage or hours) 1990 Q1: 2011 Trucking = Long-Haul TL Drivers Source: Department of Labor and ATA

23 Obstacles And Last - But Not Least!