The Future of Trucking: Key Research Topics. Jeffrey Short Sr. Research Associate American Transportation Research Institute

Transcription

1 The Future of Trucking: Key Research Topics Jeffrey Short Sr. Research Associate American Transportation Research Institute

2 ATRI Trucking industry s NFP research organization Safety Mobility Economic Analysis Technology Environment

3 Key Future of Trucking Topics Vehicle Related Topics Driver Shortage Onboard Safety Systems/ Vehicle Automation Electric Propulsion

4 Key Future of Trucking Topics Operating Environment Congestion/ Infrastructure Parking Urban/ Smart Cities

5 Vehicle Related: Driver Shortage Identified as a top RAC priority 2013 Released December 2014 Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data Examines demographic trends in driver workforce with implications for future

6 Vehicle Related: Driver Shortage

7 Vehicle Related: Driver Shortage

8 Vehicle Related: Automation/OSS Maps AV impacts to trucking industry s top concerns HOS CSA Driver H/W Congestion

9 Top Issues Hours-of-Service Compliance, Safety, Accountability Key Autonomous Truck Benefit Allows for driver rest and productivity to occur simultaneously. Will decrease raw SMS scores, though percentile scoring needs to change. Driver Shortage Driving more attractive with higher productivity, less time away from home, and additional logistics tasks; fewer drivers may be needed. Driver Retention Companies with autonomous technology may attract and retain drivers. Truck Parking Electronic Logging Device Mandate Driver Health and Wellness The Economy Infrastructure / Congestion / Funding Driver Distraction If "productive rest" is taken in the cab during operations, less time will be required away from home at truck parking facilities and fewer facilities will be needed. Modifications will be necessary depending on level of autonomy. Driver could be less sedentary; injuries could be reduced. Carriers that use AT may see productivity and cost benefits. Urban congestion could be mitigated through widespread use of autonomous vehicles (including cars). Drivers will not be distracted from driving if vehicle in autonomous mode.

10 Vehicle Related: Automation/OSS Level 4 - Specific 30 Minute Rest Break 14-Hour On-Duty Limit 11-Hour Daily Drive Time Limit New Sleeper Berth Provisions 60/70 Hour On-Duty Limits

11 Vehicle Related: Electric Propulsion Significant attention to electric trucks, but diesel engines power the industry Electric truck predictions are almost revolutionary but many questions remain: Is operating distance sufficient? Grade? Payload decrease related to battery weight? Recharging time? Recharging infrastructure? Can grid meet industry needs?

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13 Congestion on U.S. NHS cost trucking industry $63.4B in 2015 Lost productivity = 996 million hours Operating Environment: Congestion/ Infrastructure Equates to 362,243 commercial drivers sitting idle for entire year

14 Operating Environment: Congestion/ Infrastructure

15 Operating Environment: Congestion/ Infrastructure Los Angeles metro worst with $1.1B in costs

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17 Operating Environment: Parking Truck Parking Diaries Drivers kept 14 days of parking activity Includes when, where, how long to find a spot, how many spots occupied by non-cmvs, lost productivity, etc 148 completed diaries were returned between June and September ,035 days of truck parking activity 4,763 unique stops

18 Operating Environment: Urban/Smart Cities Approaches to city planning are changing Livability, complete streets, smart growth Smart city technologies/connectivity City planning often ignores freight needs Where does trucking fit in?

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20 Operating Environment: Urban/ Smart Cities Relationship to Previous Topics: Congestion/ Infrastructure Parking Particularly Deliveries Driver Shortage Electric Propulsion Automation/OSS

21 Questions? Jeffrey Short