UCI ITS Research Team

Transcription

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2 UCI ITS Research Team Principal Investigator: Professor Stephen G. Ritchie Asst. Project Scientist: Dr. Andre Tok Graduate Student Researcher: Fatemeh Ranaiefar Graduate Student Researcher: Kyungsoo Jeong 2

3 Presentation Outline 1. Selected UCI-ITS Research 2. Background 3. VIUS Overview 4. Purpose and Scope of Study 5. Preliminary Analysis of IRP Data 6. Proposed Tasks 7. Proposed Schedule 3

4 Selected UCI-ITS Research Studies CARB Sponsored Studies: California Air Resources Board Vehicle Activity Database (CALVAD) A data fusion application combining WIM data, Vehicle Detection System (VDS) 30s raw data, and Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) Data Provides estimates of HHDT volumes and VMT at PeMS locations Development of a New Methodology to Characterize Truck Body Types along California Freeways Development of advanced truck body classification models for deployment at existing WIM and VDS locations by integrating WIM and inductive signature technologies Caltrans Sponsored Studies: Assessment and Development of Commodity Flow, Logistics, and Other Relevant Goods Movement Data Sources to Facilitate Statewide Freight Modeling Performed assessment of freight data Developed the Online California Freight Data Repository (Cal-FRED, California Statewide Freight Forecasting Model (CSFFM) Development of commodity-based freight forecasting model for the state of California At the final stages of development 4

5 BACKGROUND 5

6 Relevant Policies 6

7 Agency Needs CARB Emissions modeling Estimate VMT of in-state trucks (DMV has registration information of in-state trucks, but no information on operating locations/range) Estimate VMT of out-of-state trucks at truck level (IRP data only provides details at fleet level) CEC Fuel consumption Caltrans CSFFM Validation Estimation of payloads by commodity and truck type Estimation of empty factors SCAG Heavy duty truck movement 7

8 VIUS OVERVIEW 8

9 About the Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (VIUS) Provides data on the physical and operational characteristics of U.S. truck population at national and state level First conducted in 1963, and thereafter quinquennially from 1967 until 2002 Known as the Truck Inventory Use Survey (TIUS) prior to 1997 Excluded vehicles: Vehicles owned by Federal, state or local governments Ambulances Buses Motor homes Farm tractors Non-powered trailer units 9

10 Information Obtainable from VIUS Business related information Business by industrial classification Truck fleet size Truck physical characteristics Truck type and weight Length and Axle configuration Fuel type Model year Travel characteristics Primary jurisdiction Refueling location Annual truck miles Empty miles 10

11 VIUS National Truck Fleet Study Applications Future transportation growth Fee and cost allocation Safety risks Energy efficiency Environmental impacts 11

12 2002 VIUS Summary 136,113 trucks surveyed from a total of nearly 89 million trucks registered in the U.S. 2,433 surveyed trucks operated or registered (out of 2.87 million 1 ) in California 1,985 trucks operated in CA: 1,744 registered in CA, and 241 registered outside CA, including AZ, NV and OR 448 trucks registered in CA operated in other states 1 Caltrans MVSTAFF, number of CA registered trucks > 6,000 lbs GVW in

13 Concerns with VIUS Last conducted in 2002 (> 10 years) Cannot accurately represent current characteristics and travel behavior of trucks operating in California Low sample size of trucks operating in California 1,985 trucks operating in California (1,744 in-state, 241 out-of-state) 13

14 Limitations of California VIUS data No observations for some truck classes: A very small sample size (less than 0.1% sampling rate) Valid sample size further reduced due to incomplete and bad responses Uncertain if no observation is an actual consequence caused by underrepresentation of trucks falling into the corresponding categories Inadequate survey sample design for VIUS 2002 Few observations for out-of-california trucks A sufficient sample is needed: To capture operational characteristics from interstate trucks To provide information regarding new truck classification for EMFAC2011/CARB 14

15 Available Data on California Trucks Category Title/Description Data Source Relevant Variables Remarks Intercept Survey Assessment of Out-of- State Heavy Duty Truck Activity Trends in California (Lutsey, 2008) Survey results from 430 respondents at 7 CA inspection stations near state border O-Ds; refuel location; loading and unloading location; vehicle classification; CA VMT; CA visits; vehicle model year; fuel consumption Focus only on out-ofstate trucks Permanent Traffic Data Collection Weigh-In-Motion (WIM) Data processed from WIM detectors installed in CA Weight; axle class Permanent Traffic Data Collection PeMS Data processed from inductive loop detectors installed in CA Estimated truck volumes Use lane-tolane correlation Registration Survey International Registration Plan (IRP) Motor vehicle registration data for truck mileage estimations for travel in each state Number of IRP truck registrations in CA; VMT by state; truck fleet characteristics Not publicly available Registration Survey International Fuel Tax Agreement (IFTA) Records for truck fuel tax receipts of interstate trucks Number of IFTA truck registrations; VMT by state; amount of fuel consumed in CA; truck fleet characteristics Not publicly available Model Development CARB Emissions Factor (EMFAC 2011) Model DMV registration for instate trucks; IRP registration data for out-of-state trucks Number and truck VMT registered and operating in CA; Number and VMT of trucks registered out of CA and operating in CA Temporary Traffic Data Collection Traffic Data Branch Traffic counts from state highways in CA Traffic counts with estimated truck proportions by class; Monthly VMT 15

16 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY 16

17 Purpose of Study Update the California portion of VIUS (discontinued by U.S. Census Bureau after 2002) Provide data on physical characteristics of the truck population Truck type, number of axles, age, model, body type Provide data on operational characteristics and regional distribution of the truck population Annual VMT, empty miles, origins and destinations, vehicle registered states, home states Provide data on commodity information associated with the truck population Provide data on fuel information 17

18 Expected Benefits 1. Represent and populate key freight data input at the state and regional levels 2. Estimate payload factors, empty mile factors, and share of truck age distributions for forecasting transportation demands 3. Provide observed data for improving and validating CSFFM 4. Assess the energy efficiency and environmental impact of the freight truck fleet 5. Evaluate safety risks to travelers 6. Determine freight transportation fuel demands and assess corresponding policies 7. Provide data for conducting market studies and evaluate market strategies for business sectors 18

19 Survey Scope Pilot survey Focus will be on quality and reliability rather than quantity Sample and survey design Determine sampling frame and stratification required to obtain optimal results Survey analysis Analyze preliminary results Refine survey instruments 19

20 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF IRP DATA 20

21 IRP Data Tables MM05: Recap carrier detail Information pertaining to carrier s account and jurisdiction MM10: Fleet jurisdiction miles Information regarding miles registered by carrier in each foreign jurisdiction MM15: IRP registration data Vehicle and registration specific information MM20: Vehicle jurisdictions Information regarding weight registered for each vehicle for each foreign jurisdiction 21

22 IRP Data Summary 77,990 distinct fleets based outside of CA with operations in CA 1,190,371 registered vehicles 5,051 million miles traveled within CA in 2012 for fleets with home jurisdiction outside CA 22

23 Account-Jurisdiction Pairs IRP Fleet Size Summary >500 Fleet Size 23

24 Number of Registered Trucks By Jurisdiction 24

25 Total CA Miles Reported by Jurisdiction 25

26 PROPOSED TASKS 26

27 Tasks Overview Stakeholder Group Kick-off Meeting Task A: Survey Preparation Task B: Survey Execution Task C: Analysis and Presentation of Survey Results Task D: Final Report and Presentation 27

28 Stakeholder Group Members Tony Brasil Doug Ito Jack Kitowski Sharon Lemieux Stephen Lemieux Mike McCarthy Erik White ARB Doug MacIvor Caltrans Bob McBride CEC Andrew Conway Angela Marbray Annie Nam DMV SCAG 28

29 Task A: Survey Preparation Literature review Collect background information Design sampling frame Determine sample size Develop sample selection procedures Design survey questionnaire Determine survey method 29

30 Task B: Survey Execution Implement survey Administer and follow-up survey Receive and code completed questionnaires, and archive survey results Develop software for coding completed questions, clean data and check for irrational errors Present results Summarize insights for main survey design 30

31 Task C: Analysis and Presentation of Survey Results Summarize, present and describe survey data Test statistical significance of survey results Generate key information for freight demand analysis Investigate trends of freight related operational characteristics and activities 31

32 Task D: Final Report and Presentation Prepare technical workshop Present overall survey procedure and results Submit draft report for review Submit completed survey questionnaire and coded survey results Revise and submit final report 32

33 Schedule Item Description Month 1 Kick-off Meeting Stakeholder Group Meeting 3 Task A: Survey Preparation 4 Task B: Survey Execution 5 Task C: Analysis and Presentation of Survey Results 6 Task D: Final Report and Presentation 33

34 THE END 34