2018 Customer Forum. May 9, 2018

Transcription

1 2018 Customer Forum May 9, /9/2018

2 Agenda Introductions Antitrust Disclaimer High OFO Review Low OFO Review System Reliability Support Activity Results Post Forum Report / Next Steps 2

3 Antitrust Disclaimer 3

4 4

5 Recording of this Customer Forum is prohibited 5

6 High OFO Review 6

7 High Operational Flow Order (High OFO) A High OFO is declared when SoCalGas determines that expected receipts will exceed total forecasted system capacity (including storage injection capacity and latest off system scheduled quantities) for a pending flow day. SoCalGas uses the on system scheduled quantities from the latest scheduling cycle to determine expected system receipts for the High OFO calculation. 7

8 Scheduled Quantities Used for High OFO Cycle Timely Evening Intraday 1 Intraday 2 Intraday 3 Scheduled Quantity Used for High OFO Calculation Prior Day, Evening Cycle Current Day, Timely Cycle Current Day, Evening Cycle Current Day, Intraday 1 Cycle Current Day, Intraday 2 Cycle On High OFO days, SoCalGas will confirm nominations up to the total net system capacity for Intraday 1 (Cycle 3), Intraday 2 (Cycle 4), and Intraday 3 (Cycle 5); [and during the Intraday 3 cycle when a High OFO event is not called and nominations exceed system capacity]. SoCalGas will not declare a High OFO on Intraday 3 (Cycle 5), but will limit the confirmations to the total net system capacity as it does on all other days. 8

9 High OFO Review: April 2017 March High OFO events during Report Period. 14% increase compared to previous reporting period. High OFO procedures will change after the Aliso Canyon Turbine Replacement Project goes into service. TCAP Phase 1 Settlement condition. See SoCalGas Advice Letter 4997-A for tariff markup. 9

10 High OFO Comparison 2017 Forum Report Cycle 1 52 Cycle 2 14 Cycle 3 24 Cycle 4 08 Total Forum Report Cycle 1 27 Cycle 2 28 Cycle 3 37 Cycle 4 20 Total

11 Low OFO Review 11

12 Low Operational Flow Order (Low OFO) A Low OFO is declared if, on a day prior to this Gas Day, in the sole judgment of Gas Control, the system forecast of storage withdrawal used for balancing exceeds the withdrawal capacity allocated to the balancing function. 12

13 Low OFO Review: April 2017 March 2018 Stages Declared Stage 1 37 Stage 2 47 Stage 3 17 Stage 4 2 Total 103 Tolerance Percentages Declared All Low OFOs were declared with a -5% Daily Imbalance Tolerance. 13

14 Low OFO Comparison 2017 Forum Report 2018 Forum Report Cycle 1 Cycle 2 67 Cycle 3 39 Cycle 4 Total 106 Cycle 1 Cycle 2 72 Cycle 3 31 Cycle 4 Total 103* *The Ninth Annual Report of System Reliability Issues (2018 Customer Forum Report) stated an incorrect count of

15 OFO Day Scheduled Quantity Adjustments Scheduled quantities can be traded from one Balancing Agent to another Balancing Agent for any OFO day. California Producer pools can trade scheduled quantities with other California Producer pools. A scheduled quantity adjustment (SQA) is not an imbalance trade. Imbalances are calculated at the end of the month by comparing billing quality meter usage to the final scheduled quantities for each day. 15

16 OFO Day Scheduled Quantity Adjustments (Number of SQAs Processed) Number of SQAs Processed

17 OFO Day Scheduled Quantity Adjustments (Total Scheduled Quantities Processed) 1,000, ,000 Total Scheduled Quantities Processed (dth) 800, , , , , , , ,000 17

18 OFO Day Scheduled Quantity Adjustments The OFO day SQAs are a time consuming, manual process. SQA requests for a given gas day must be submitted by both counterparties no later than 9 PM Pacific Time the next business day. Each Balancing Agent involved in an SQA must have a scheduled quantity in ENVOY. Each Balancing Agent must have at least a zero quantity nomination in order to implement an SQA for an OFO day. No nomination = No SQA. Adjustments into or out of storage contracts are not allowed. 18

19 System Reliability Support Activity Results 19

20 Southern System Reliability (SSR) Purchases and Interruptible BTS Discounts Purchases (MDth) 1,045 3,015 16,989 42,879 31,311 33,309 45,349 13,354 Net Cost ($/Dth) SRMA Cost ($MM) BTS Discounts ($MM) Total ($MM)

21 21

22 Post-Forum Report / Next Steps 22

23 Post-Forum Report / Next Steps The Post-Forum Report will summarize the matters discussed here; identify action items, tariff changes, and procedural modifications that we agree are necessary; include descriptions of proposals presented by meeting participants. Any proposals made that are rejected by SoCalGas will be included in the Post-Forum Report. A draft Post-Forum Report will be issued to the Forum participants for review by May 30, 2018 with a revised draft to be issued by June 13, The Post-Forum Report will be filed by July 6,

24 Storage Injection Enhancement Plan Beginning on Gas Day April 9, 2018, portions of the storage injection capacity allocated to the system balancing function have been available for nomination on Timely Cycle. The Net Storage Injection capacity will vary throughout the day based on the System Operation s utilization of the system balancing injection capacity. The Net Storage Injection capacity will not fall below the capacity that was made available for Timely Cycle. See Advice Letter 5275-A for more details. 24

25 Summer 2018 Outlook Summary SoCalGas expects its current pipeline outages to extend through at least the peak EG summer demand period. With these pipeline outages, SoCalGas will be challenged to fill storage inventory for the upcoming winter season. Insufficient receipt capacity to both serve summer customer demand and fill storage. Without the use of Aliso Canyon, SoCalGas can support a summer EG demand of 1.7 to 1.8 BCFD. With a total system capacity of 3.2 to 3.4 BCFD. Greater use of Aliso Canyon can mitigate curtailments and increase storage inventories in the other storage fields. 25

26 2018 Summer Peak Demand Forecast CUSTOMER TYPE SUMMER DEMAND (BCFD) Core Noncore, Non Electric Generation Noncore Electric Generation (EG) Total Average core/non-eg noncore summer demand. SoCalGas EG demand forecast derived from 2017 peak summer demand. CAISO/LADWP technical assessment forecasts a minimum peak summer EG gas demand range of 1.4 to 1.8 BCFD depending on available import supplies and contingencies. 26

27 SoCalGas Summer Receipt Capacity Receipt Point Best Case Supply (MMcfd) Worst Case Supply (MMcfd) Blythe 1, Otay Mesa North Needles Topock 0 0 Kramer Junction Wheeler Ridge / Kern River Station California Production Total Pipeline Receipts 2,905 2,475 Assume 85% Utilization 2,478 2,113 27

28 SoCalGas Current System Outages 28

29 Withdrawal Rate (MMCFD) Summer Storage Assessment (Non-Aliso) 6/1/2018 7/1/2018 8/1/2018 9/1/ /1/ /1/2018 Best INV Worst INV Best WD Worst WD IEP WD REQ Inventory (BCF) Best Case pipeline supplies allow for maintaining the IEP directive of 1,320 MMcfd of withdrawal through the summer. Worst Case pipeline supplies are insufficient for demand. Non-Aliso fields are completely depleted of inventory in October. 95% receipt point utilization improves inventory, but 1,320 MMcfd of withdrawal cannot be maintained through the peak summer period. 29

30 Maintaining Summer Energy Reliability SoCalGas remains focused on increasing its storage inventory. Advice Letter 5275-A filed April 20, 2018 to further enhance storage injection capability to increase inventory. SoCalGas will continue to coordinate operations with CAISO and LADWP. SoCalGas will use OFOs and the Aliso Canyon Withdrawal Protocol which includes curtailments. Maintenance will continue to be scheduled during periods of low demand except for identified safety issues or regulatory requirements. SoCalGas is still reviewing the agencies technical assessment and has some concerns with regards to the assumptions and conclusions and the viability and practical implementation of the suggested mitigation measures. 30

31 5/9/2018