Industrial and Commercial Change and Demand Study

Transcription

1 Industrial and Commercial Change and Demand Study 2016 Real Estate and Developer Forum Presented by: Julian Szafraniec Principal and Partner

2 Overview Project context and objectives Key trends influencing industrial land and the study Findings from the supply and demand analysis Recommendations and a strategy for the future 2

3 Industrial and Commercial Study Scope of the project: Commercial 2 Zone (C1Z) Industrial 1 Zone (IN1Z) Industrial 2 Zone (IN2Z) Industrial 3 Zone (IN3Z) Excluded Central Dandenong and other retail/commercial focused centres (i.e. C1Z/MUZ/CDZ) 3

4 Dandenong in the Metropolitan Context Dandenong Industrial land is significant from a metropolitan perspective 4

5 SGS Study Approach Policy and economic context Supply trends Demand trends Alignment Strategy and recommendations 5

6 Macro Context 6

7 % of GVA The Macro Economy Australia (and Melbourne) is undergoing a major structural change to its economy 14% 12% 10% Melbourne 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Manufacturing Financial services Professional services Health care 7

8 Industrial Jobs are Growing in Dandenong PAGE 8

9 Broadening of the Industrial Sector Manufacturing, Wholesale and Logistics Seek affordable industrial land within close proximity to transport infrastructure. Shift toward larger Industrial nodes (like Dandenong). Continued transition from manufacturing to distribution. Continued unbundling of supply chain. A new hybrid commercial industrial sector is emerging. 9

10 Self Contained Labour Sub-Markets 10

11 Key Findings from the 2016 Industrial Change and Demand Study 11

12 Industrial & Commercial Land Utilisation 810 hectares or 24 per cent of land is vacant C2Z IN1Z IN2Z IN3Z 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Land (ha) Used Vacant Gross 12

13 Floorspace Utilisation 5-10% of floorspace is vacant C2Z IN1Z IN2Z IN3Z 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 Floorspace (sqm) Used Vacant 13

14 Precinct Supply Assessment (1) Westall Rd Current: LFR (Ikea), offices and logistics Future: higher value commercial/research (2) Springvale Central Current: Aging light manufacturing Future: Integration with AC (3/4/5) Princes Hwy Current: Aging freight/logistics/service Future: LFR and service Industry (6) Keysborough Current: New freight/logistics/service Future: LFR and service industry Monash NEC Springvale AC 14

15 Precinct Supply Assessment (7/8/9) Cheltenham/Perry/Green Current: Light manufacturing/service Future: Adv. Manufacturing/service (12/13/14/16) Dandenong Sth Current: Light manufacturing/freight Future: Light manufacturing/freight (11) Dandenong Sth (Heavy) Current: Heavy industrial uses Future: Heavy industrial uses (9/15) Lonsdale and SthGip Hwy Current: Light manufacturing/freight Future: AC buffer, LFR and transport/wholesale Central Dandenong 15

16 Employment Growth Greater Dandenong Employment 89,900 95, , , ,300 Change 5,100 15,700 22,900 21,700 Annual growth rate 0.55% 1.54% 1.90% 1.52% Share of South East Region 19.5% 19.3% 18.9% 19.2% 19.4% Share of Greater Melbourne 4.7% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% South East Region Employment 461, , , , ,600 Change 32,100 93, , ,200 Annual growth rate 0.68% 1.75% 1.72% 1.43% Greater Melbourne Employment 1,908,400 2,161,500 2,567,000 3,072,500 3,613,100 Change 253, , , ,600 Annual growth rate 1.25% 1.73% 1.81% 1.63% 16

17 Employment Land Demand Broad land use category Floorspace per job Plot ratio Total Growth Business / Office Parks Office Bulky Goods Retail Retail - Main Street Short-term Accommodation Dispersed Activities Special Activities Service Industry and urban support Manufacturing - Light Manufacturing - Heavy Freight and Logistics , Urban Services Total Land (hectares) 2,671 4,008 1,337 17

18 Land (hectares) Strategic Alignment Currently 15 years of land supply in Greater Dandenong 18

19 Strategic Alignment Supply alignment considerations: Delivery and enhancement of infrastructure Specialised business requirements and sub-markets Renewal of old sites and getting new land to the market Surrounding supply markets Locally such as Cardinia/Frankston Broadly such as Northern/Western Industrial nodes 19

20 Strategy and Recommendations 20

21 DRAFT Strategic Vision Greater Dandenong will continue to evolve and diversify as it consolidates its status as one of the nation s premier employment centres. Long recognised as a leader in service industry, manufacturing and logistics, Greater Dandenong will consolidate and grow as a key hub in the advanced manufacturing sector. Leveraging its large business community, Greater Dandenong will offer the local region genuine employment and entrepreneurial opportunities. 21

22 Strategic Approach Vision Evolve and diversify Objectives & strategies Precinct based approach Entrepreneurialism and innovation High skilled resident workers Functionality and amenity Regional approach Protect Green Wedge land Recommendations Planning and land use Implementation Work to three horizons 22

23 Spatial Structure 23

24 Summary The macro economy is transitioning away from industrial sectors Remaining industrial based firms are innovating and concentrating in places like Dandenong South Supply and demand alignment 24 per cent or 810 hectares of industrial zoned land is currently vacant Greater Dandenong needs 1,100 additional hectares of industrial land by 2041 Overall there is enough zoned land for the next 15 years (to 2031). Local factors, sub-markets and specialised needs will impact this alignment Strategy Evolve and Diversity 24

25 Thank you 25