Final Report for Publication. VAST Contract ST-98-RS-3086

Transcription

1 Final Report for Publication T Contract ST-98-RS-3086 Project Coordinator: France Développement Conseil (FDC) Partners: Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) PLS Consult (PLS) ISFORT Subcontractor: University of Vienna (WUW) Project Duration: Date: 15 April 2000 PROJECT FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION UNDER THE TRANSPORT RTD PROGRAMME OF THE 4th FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME R /02/01 1

2 PREFACE T (Value Added Services for Transport) is a project funded by the European Commission (DG VII) under the transport RTD programme of the 4 th framework programme. The overall objectives of the T project for all modes of transports are the following: to identify, given future GNSS options, the main present and future commercial applications of satellite navigation services, to assess the associated potential market for each identified application, to assess the willingness to pay of each category of potential users for identified applications, to propose and assess cost recovery schemes against financial profitability, implementation feasibility and public acceptability, to propose and assess Public Private Partnerships in a position to recover funds from commercial applications to finance (part of) GNSS2 development and operation. To attain these objectives, an independent European industry consortium has been set up. This consortium is led by the independent French engineering and consultancy company FDC (France Développement Conseil). It also includes the Italian institute ISFORT (Istituto Superiore di Formazione e Ricerca per i Trasporti), the Danish consultancy company PLS, the Dutch economic institute NEI (Netherlands Economic Institute) and the Austrian University of Vienna WU (Wirtschafts Universitat). R /02/01 2

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The T project aimed at assessing the expected benefits of commercial application of GNSS in transport with an emphasis on road and multimodal transport. In this way, the first step of the project was to identify promising present, emerging and latent applications and their related. The have been structured in 3 main different layers : layer 1: satellite based service enhancements (e.g.: Satellite Based Augmentation Systems, Galileo controlled access service) layer 2: terrestrial enhancements (e.g.: DGPS, pseudolite) layer 3: application layer (e.g.: communication services, coupling with other sensors) A broad identification process, mainly based on desk studies, direct interviews and brainstorming sessions, has allowed to identify more than 50 applications and their related. A significant dominance of road transport applications has been underscored. To propose a comprehensive GNSS applications database, a description of each application and their main user needs and requirements have been given. It appears that present user requirements and emerging user requirements do not significantly differ. A special attention has been paid on the communication requirements linked to the GNSS applications (technical needs, safety critical aspects), and shows, very often, this kind of service is clearly essential for most of applications identified in the framework of the T project. The identification process points-out the real need for a Galileo control access service due to the high integrity and guaranty levels required for many applications. The second step of the study aimed at assessing the opportunity of market development for GNSS applications in the main transport segments. The market structure has been defined basically in terms of market driver s unit: a market driver s unit is each transport vector (car, lorry, locomotive, vessel, aircraft) and equipment (wagons, containers) which can be furnished with a receiver generating a demand for GNSS commercial applications and Value Added Services. For each transport segment the population of market driver s units and the market penetration of GNSS equipment has been forecasted building up different penetration scenarios. The market dimension trends in monetary terms for both the equipment and applications have been estimated using current average market prices and a technology-driven approach for assessing Value Added Services. The forecasted market for Value Added Services () and applications in road segment will rise from 5 billion (in 2002) to more than 40 billion (in 2020). In multimodal segment the R /02/01 3

4 market will probably reach more than 5 billion in In aviation, rail and maritime segments, the market will arrive respectively to 900 million, 680 million and 50 million. The market results have been used as relevant inputs for the third phase of the T project aiming at assessed potential recoverable costs as a percentage of benefits for end users. Benefits for end users are defined as the reduction of costs and/or the increase of profit by using satellite navigation applications. These future benefits have been assessed, performing some interviews with end user, organisations and experts. The total annual benefits of satellite based navigation applications for European end users are estimated at 15 billion in 2008 increasing to 53 billion in The potential recoverable costs are equal to the increase of turnover by European industry from the sales of open access service receivers and controlled access application equipment. The potential recoverable costs should increase from around 1.5 billion in 2008 to around 7.6 billion in When we assume that 1% of the turnover can flow back (by a general levy on the world-wide sales of receivers and equipment) to the Galileo investors, recoverable costs increase over the years from 5 million in 2008 to 76 million in Under this assumption they are significantly smaller than the increase of tax on sales income to the government, which is assessed at 265 million in 2008 to 1,323 million in Restricted to the sales to European end users the recoverable costs increase over the years from 5 million in 2008 to 26 million in Tax on sales income to the government increases from 88 million in 2008 to 174 million in To finalize the T project, the implementation feasibility of three PPP-models suitable for a Europe satellite based navigation infrastructure has been studied. Key variables, determining the definition, design, building and operation of Galileo have been evaluated: the potential payment structure, the risk factors and the financing mechanism. Based on these inputs, typical roles of the private and public parties involved in PPP projects have been assessed and the most likely organisational set-ups presented. Generally concession gives better allocation of risks and less friction between public and private parties, if risks can be clearly identified ex-ante. Joint ventures are more relevant when no clear allocation of risks and responsibilities can be established. Therefore three possible generic PPP-models have been elaborated: 100% private concession, shared public/private concession and shared joint venture. The final matching of the three PPP-models with the financial mechanism, risk factors and payment structures have given the following result: Joint ventures (joint undertaking) seem to be suitable for the design phase as risks factors are difficult to allocate ex-ante in that phase. Shared concession seem to be suitable for the building phase as risks can be allocated, while the need for cash flow increases, no market revenues are generated and the need for public finance is substantial. Private concession is suitable for the operation phase as risks decreases and should be easy to allocate, market revenues increases, the need for public finance decreases and private investments will raise. R /02/01 4

5 At last but not the least, to ensure the outcomes of the T project are exhaustive and relevant, a service provider panel has been set-up. The role of the service provider panel was to assess the results of the work already done and to contribute, when necessary, by providing some inputs to improve the outcomes quality. 2 meeting with the service provider panel have been organized. This process has allowed to identify missing commercial applications of GNSS, to better determine the futures market structure and their related assumptions, to better evaluate cost recovery possibilities and to gather some remarks on PPP models. R /02/01 5

6 PARTNERSHIP The number of partners in the consortium has been deliberately limited to four (plus one subcontractor) compiling very complementary skills and limiting resources for management activities. The expertise of each company involved and their status regarding the T project are as follows: - FDC (France Développement Conseil, FRANCE), Partner and Co-ordinator FDC company, is an independent engineering company whose prime role is to provide governmental agencies and international organisations (EC/ DG TREN, ESA, EUROCONTROL) with technical assistance and program management service. The major domain of expertise of FDC is satellite navigation systems and their applications to transport which represents more than 60 % of the total activities of FDC Project co-ordinator: Pascal Campagne (Pascal.campagne@fdc.fr) Major expertise: GNSS - ISFORT (Istituto Superiore di Formazione e Ricerca per i Trasporti, ITALY), Partner ISFORT is an Institute for training and research in transportation. ISFORT is involved in several research activities such as development of intermodal systems, interaction between the new telecommunication and information technologies and mobility systems. ISFORT has been the co-ordinator of a study conducted for DG XIII : Market Context related to telematics applications for transport. Major expertise: transport market research - NEI (Netherlands Economic Institute, The NETHERLANDS), Partner The Netherlands Economics Institute (NEI) is an independent research and consultancy organisation based on applied financial, business and socio-economic analysis. The organisation carries out studies and projects aimed at providing recommendations regarding planning and policy development for socio-economic issues and strategic and tactical business decision, including market analyses, evaluations, strategic development and management information systems for the transport sector. Major expertise: socio-economic analysis R /02/01 6

7 - PLS ( DENMARK), Partner PLS Consult is currently one of the leading consultancy offices in Denmark with a staff of 95 associates. In the field of transportation PLS Consult participates and has participated in many national and international projects. Among international projects financed by the European Union through different Directorate General, PLS Consul is the project co-ordinator of FREIA (DG VII), FAST/TITE (DG XIII), INTRACOM (DG XXII), Other international transportation projects with PLS Consult being a major partner are EUROSPREDI, ET- PROJECT, EUROLINK, EUROPLATFORMS, COST 320, TRANSINPOL. Major expertise: transport system implementation (including PPP) - WUW (Wirtschafts universität Wien, AUSTRIA), Subcontractor WUW is the Vienna university which is, among others, specialized in methodology and economic advice. Major expertise: Methodology and economic advices R /02/01 7

8 TABLE OF CONTENT 1. OBJECTIVES WORK DESCRIPTION Work breakdown structure Project deliverables Structure of the report PRELIMINARY REMARKS GNSS APPLICATIONS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED Approach Present applications and associated Road segment Maritime segment Aviation segment Rail segment Intermodal segment Non transport applications Emerging applications and associated Road segment Maritime segment Aviation segment Rail segment Intermodal segment Latent application and associated Geographical considerations FUTURE MARKET STRUCTURE AND DIMENSION Approach GNSS Market: reference framework Supply Structure Demand structure Current GNSS market development and market potential Road segment Multimodal segment Aviation segment Maritime segment Rail segment Value forecast COST RECOVERY SCHEMES FOR USER GROUPS Approach Relevant aspects per market segment Road segment Maritime segment Aviation segment Rail segment Non transport segment Cost recovery Results on benefits for European end users Results on recoverable costs Willingness to pay R /02/01 8

9 6.5 Sensitivity analysis on results Approach Limitations Results of three scenarios Comparison of results to estimates on SatNav in other publications PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP MODELS Approach Likely Public Private Partnership model Preliminary remarks Aims and objectives of Galileo Three likely PPP model for Galileo The participation of private sector Matching of PPP models with payments, risks & finance Summary VERIFICATION OF T DELIVERABLES Approach Role of the service provider panel Composition of the service provider panel Organisation of service provider panel meetings Service provider panel meeting outcomes CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES ANNEX A ANNEX B R /02/01 9

10 1. OBJECTIVES To identify main existing and future commercial applications T is a transport research project launched by the European Commission Directorate General for Transport, as part of the Transport Research Programme of the 4 th framework programme. The first objective of the T project is to identify, considering future perspectives for GNSS, main present and future commercial applications and their Value Added Services, linked to the use of satellite navigation systems. In order to propose a broad and relevant identification, applications using a satellite navigation systems combined with other means of navigation, communication or information systems have been taken into account. Regarding market perspectives, a particular emphasis on road and multimodal transport has been considered. To achieve this objective, desk studies, surveys by direct interview among a selection of representative players and brainstorming sessions have been performed. To assess the associated potential market for each identified application According to transport authorities and various market analysis, GNSS based Value Added Services () have an important role to play in the transport domain, leading to a huge market for commercial applications, where strong demand already exists. In that context, the second phase of the T project aims at assessing the present, the future structure and the dimension of the GNSS market in the European Union from 2000 up to 2020, taking into account each transport segment identified as relevant for the study. The analysis of market dimension and market potential has been defined in terms of market driver s units interested both by the deployment of the services and by the installation of the equipment. These objectives have been reached performing surveys and direct interviews with major players of the navigation field and using relevant other studies as inputs. To propose and assess cost recovery schemes As the market of Value Added Services is certainly considerably larger than the cost of the space segment, the idea of recovering all or part of the cost of the development and operation phase of space and ground infrastructure is tempting. To analyse the potential return of investment for a European contribution to Galileo, cost recovery schemes need to be performed taking into account financial profitability, implementation feasibility and public acceptability. Thus, the general objectives of the third phase of the T project is to assess the benefits that the European economy will have from using satellite navigation services as well as the R /02/01 10

11 users willingness to pay. The benefits for which users have a willingness to pay should show what costs of the Galileo system might be recoverable. The rest of the benefits can be an argument for community funding for Galileo. Expertises from economic institute and university have used to achieve these objectives. To propose and assess different Public Private Partnership models According the European Commission Communication (10 February 1999, COM(1999) 54 final), a Public Private Partnership (PPP) should be established for Galileo. In that context, the main objectives of the next logic phase of the T project is to propose and assess different PPP models in a position to recover funds from commercial applications to finance (part of) Galileo development and operation phases. Costs recovery schemes and market structure have been used as relevant key inputs and allowed to study potential payment structure, risk factors and financing mechanism which are necessary key variables to elaborate the most likely PPP models. Finally, to validate the T outcomes by a service provider panel In order to ensure the quality and the exactness of the T deliveries, a service provider panel has been set-up. The main objectives of this service provider panel is to validate the results of a project performed by a fully independent consortium composed of a consultancy company expert in GNSS, transport market research and economic institutes and a university, by professional industrialists. R /02/01 11

12 2. WORK DESCRIPTION 2.1 Work breakdown structure The overall objective of this project was to assess the expected benefits of commercial applications of GNSS in transport with an emphasis on road and multimodal transport. The first step of this study was to identity potential commercial application of GNSS. The second step was to study the corresponding market structure and its analysis. The third step was the evaluation of the possibility of cost recovery associated to each identified application and its willing to pay users. The results of the three first phases have been the basis of the fourth step which propose different PPP models. During the project service provider panel meetings have been organised to validate the T outcomes. In practical terms, each step of the study corresponds to a work package ( WP1, WP2, WP3, WP4, WP5) Management activities have been carried out for the entire duration of the project (WP6). The following figure illustrates the work package breakdown as well as the relationship between the work packages and the work phases mentioned above. Figure 1 : Work breakdown WP1 Value Added Service Identification WP6 Project Management FDC FDC WP2 Future Market Structure ISFORT WP3 Cost Recovery Study Result NEI WP4 Public Private Partnership PLS WP5 Service Providers Panel FDC R /02/01 12

13 2.2 Project deliverables The work package 1 up to 5 have resulted into five main reports identifying respectively potential commercial applications, the market structure, the cost recovery schemes, the most likely PPP models and the main outcomes of the service provider panel meetings. The title and the work package leader of the reports mentioned above are: = = = = = "Report on GNSS applications", FDC, work package 1, deliverable D1. "Report on future market of commercial applications of GNSS", ISFORT, work package 2, deliverable D2. "Report on cost recovery schemes for user groups, NEI, work package 3, deliverable D3. "Report on Public Private Partnership models", PLS Consult, work package 4, deliverable D4. "Report on service providers panel meetings", FDC, work package 5, deliverable D Structure of the report As explained previously, the project has been structured in a set of work packages leading to the delivery of five deliverables. The present report is structured as described hereafter. Chapter 4 summarises the results of the broad identification of current, emerging and latent application and their associated Value Added Services (source: work package 1, D1). Chapter 5 presents the results related to the identification of the present and future market structure and analyse the GNSS market dimension in the European Union from 2000 up to 2020 (source: work package 2, D2). Chapter 6 presents the results on benefits and recoverable costs from Galileo for the transport sector (source: work package 3, D3). Chapter 7 presents the most likely Public Private Partnership models elaborated in the framework of the T project. (source: work package 4, D4). Chapter 8 presents the outcomes of the service providers panel meeting held throughout the project (source :work package 5, D5). Chapter 9 presents the conclusions. Chapter 10 presents the references. R /02/01 13

14 3. PRELIMINARY REMARKS Definitions and assumptions have been proposed and approved at the beginning of the study, and are only valid in the context of the T project. In particular Value Added Services () have been shared in 3 main different layers as follows: Value Added Services (): Value Added Services are designed to provide service enhancements over the GNSS basic services, to improve their quality (accuracy, integrity, availability ) or to offer combined services (navigation, communication, information ). Financing of the operation of these services will be based on user charging mechanisms. They are composed of 3 layers. Layer 1: Satellite based service enhancements. This layer comprises Value Added Services based on satellite technology. They are divided into 2 groups: = Satellite based services (augmentation systems) designed to increase the technical performances of the Basic GNSS Services like accuracy, integrity and availability. GNSS 1 (EGNOS, WAAS, MSAS) systems are considered, for the purposes of this study, as ( 1.1), = Satellite based services offered by the core system, improving the basic open access service such as guaranteed and liable services (Galileo Controlled Access Service) ( 1.2). Layer 2: Terrestrial enhancements. This layer comprises based on terrestrial systems. They are divided into 2 groups: = designed to provide the basic service, as provided by the core GNSS space elements, in areas not covered by these space elements (tunnels, underground parking, inside buildings, urban canyons, under intense foliage ) ( 2.1) = designed to enhance the basic service (increased accuracy, integrity ) in local areas (e.g. DGPS) ( 2.2). R /02/01 14

15 Layer 3: Application layer. This layer comprises service enhancements designed at the level of the user equipment. This layer is divided into 2 groups: = Services based on the combination of other functions within the user equipment. It includes software enhancements (map matching, integrity check by RAIM algorithms ) hardware integration or coupling (odometer, inertial sensors, digital maps ) and use of databases (database on dangerous chemicals, on relevant locations ) ( 3.1), = Services based on the combination of the GNSS service with other different kind of services as communication, traffic information, internet ( 3.2). To complete these definitions, a brief description on GPS, GLONASS, GNSS1 and GALILEO is given in appendix A. R /02/01 15

16 4. GNSS APPLICATIONS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED 4.1 Approach In order to propose a structured identification of commercial GNSS applications, a segmentation has been made in the following three categories: = Present applications and their associated = Emerging applications and their associated = Latent applications and their associated The identification of present applications is mainly based on a desk study whereas the selection of emerging applications combines direct interview and literature researches. Finally, the selection of latent applications is based on brainstorming sessions. This first step of the T project has resulted in a database which supplies a description of each application (operating principle, user requirements, user identification ) for the main domain (road, aviation, maritime, rail, intermodal, other) as well as the current and future. The full database is annexed to the deliverable D1 of the T project. Remark: the selection of is only based on user requirements R /02/01 16

17 4.2 Present applications and associated Over 30 present applications have been identified including transport and non-transport domains Road segment Road present applications identified in the framework of this study are already numerous and fully operational in most of European countries. = Emergency and mayday services = Fleet and freight management = Breakdown assistance = Traffic info systems in public transport = Route guidance and traffic information = Traffic survey = Vehicle location Present road transport applications using a satellite navigation system are the most numerous and promising both in terms of equipment sales and services revenues. User identification: Most of these present applications are aimed at all private and professional road users such as taxis, rent a car firs, transport haulage, fire brigade services, public transport Approximately 175 million of potential users have been identified in Europe. User requirements: For road applications, technical positioning requirements are not extremely demanding and would be compliant with the expected performance of GALILEO (open and controlled access) and GPS modernized systems. Most current road applications require accuracy of between 10 and 25 metres, and global (land mass) coverage is required, except for the traffic information system in public transport (where local coverage is sufficient). In general, the availability requirement is not very high, but will be difficult to achieve without local augmentations mainly due to masking problems resulting from urban canyons or tunnels and underground facilities. All present applications identified require a communication system (1 or 2 way), except for static route guidance ("route guidance application, but without reception of traffic information). In general, communication link reliability is only of commercial importance, except for emergency and mayday services for which safety of life aspects must be taken into account. Note: For each application (all domains), the technical requirements (accuracy, availability, coverage, communication, ) are set out in detail in the full database annexed in appendix A of the deliverable D1. Current and future candidate : R /02/01 17

18 As explained in the definition paragraph, Value Added Services () are designed to provide service enhancements over the GNSS basic services, to improve their quality or to offer combined services. The selection for each current road applications is summarised in the table below. Note: for each application (all domains), all details of the selection process are provided in the database annexed in appendix A of the deliverable D1. Table 1 : selection Road applications Core element and current candidate Core element and future candidate Applications Current GPS Galileo OAS Modern GPS Emergency and mayday services X X X X X X Breakdown assistance X X X X X X X Route guidance and traffic information X X X X X X (X) X X Vehicle Location X X X X X X X X Fleet and freight management X (X) X X X Traffic information systems in public transport Traffic survey X X (X) X X X X X X X X X X X Note : - the "( )" means that the is only an option, it is not essential - "Galileo OAS" means Galileo Open Access Service - "Modern GPS" means modernized GPS This note is valid for all tables in this report. 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Maritime segment The maritime segment includes all maritime and in-land waterway applications. The selection of present applications is as follows: = Navigation = Maritime construction = Survey and inspections = Emergency and rescue operations = Fishing = Positioning of navigation buoys = Dredging The maritime sector was the first to use a GPS system for navigation purpose, thereby creating the first major satellite navigation market. User identification: R /02/01 18

19 "Maritime navigation" and "emergency and rescue operations" concern a very large number of users (several tens of thousands of users). On the other hand, specific applications such as "survey and inspection", "dredging" or "maritime construction" concern a small number of potential maritime users (professional users). A total of potential users have been identified for these kind of application. User requirements: Most present maritime applications require a high level of accuracy. Certain applications, like "Maritime construction" require accuracy to within 10 centimetres! Today, this level of performance is only achieved by a differential system (e.g.: DGPS). A large number of applications are demanding higher performance positioning systems to increase work efficiency (fishing, dredging ). The availability required is the least critical issue, because there are few environmental constraints (except in ports with very high buildings). Integrity is often a targeted asset. Service guarantees would be appreciated. As regards technical communication needs, most applications require only a one-way communication link (to receive DGPS corrections). "Emergency & rescue operation" may require a 2 way communication link if an acknowledgement of receipt is necessary. Current and future candidate : Today a large share of the seafaring community uses a DGPS receiver ( 2.2), or some other system like RACONS, LORAN-C In the future, Galileo controlled access Service ( 1.2) seems to be the best candidate given the high level of accuracy and integrity required by most maritime applications (see table below). Due to its intrinsic accuracy features, Galileo would avoid the use of differential correction infrastructures and the associated communication link. Table 2 : selection Maritime applications Core element and current candidate Core element and future candidate Applications Current GPS Galileo OAS Modern GPS Maritime navigation Fishing X*1 X X X X X X Survey and inspections X X X X X X Dredging Maritime construction X X X X X X Emergency & rescue operations (X) X X Positioning of navigation buoys X (X) X Note : *1: Other systems are also used (visual aids, autonomous navigation system, RACONS, LORAN-C ) 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances R /02/01 19

20 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Aviation segment Today, even if GPS is becoming an essential part of all aircraft navigation systems, the benefit of satellite navigation systems are relatively limited for civil aviation applications since current satellite system performance is not sufficient in terms of accuracy, integrity and reliability. The only current aviation application identified is "aircraft navigation". User identification: The "Aircraft navigation" application concerns the entire aeronautical community. Over 30,000 potential users have been identified in general and commercial aviation. User requirements: Different flight phases, within which needs are assumed to be constant, have been defined by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) and are presented with their requirements in the ICAO GNSS SARPs V.8.0. In addition to the natural dependency of navigation on weather conditions, the operational needs of these navigation systems are increasingly stringent in dense traffic areas and at low altitudes. Current and future candidate : At present, navigation systems used for aviation depend on the flight phase, the fly-over region and the type of aircraft. The most widespread systems are the DME and the VOR, as well as the ILS (or even the MLS) for landing. The GPS system is usually used as a supplementary means. In the future, on condition required guarantees are provided, the Galileo controlled access service ( 1.2) should meet all civil aviation needs and in particular those concerning the most critical phases (commercial flights, IFR flights, approach and landing). Table 3 : selection Aviation applications Core element and current candidate Core element and future candidate Applications Current GPS Galileo OAS Modern GPS Aircraft navigation X X X*1 X*1 X X R /02/01 20

21 Note : *1: The modernized GPS or Galileo open access service will certainly suffice for tourism flights and in certain areas 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Rail segment Satellite navigation-based rail applications are mostly in the test or experimental phase. So all rail applications are discussed in the "emerging applications" section Intermodal segment Applications concerning intermodal transport and using a satellite navigation system are only starting to emerge now. But, "container management" is a current application and is the most representative application of intermodal transport. User identification: A lot of harbour, haulage and airport storage facilities are becoming equipped with GPSbased container management systems. The number of installations fitted out should exceed several thousand. User requirements: In general, user requirements are not very demanding, except in terms of accuracy (1 to 5 m) due to the size of containers (<10m). This application requires a one way communication link to transmit the position of each container as well as very low cost equipment. User requirements are likely to change, in particular when transporting dangerous loads. In that case, integrity and guarantees become essential. Current and future candidate : All details of the selection process are provided in the database (appendix A, p42 to P43). The selection is as follow: Table 4 : selection Rail applications Core element and current candidate Core element and future candidate Applications Current GPS Galileo OAS Modern GPS R /02/01 21

22 Container management X X x x X*1 X Note :*1: For dangerous loads 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Non transport applications Many other applications requiring use of satellite navigation systems have been identified, but do not concern transport. Given the importance of these applications, both in terms of potential market and number of users, the main applications identified are as follows: = Scientific applications such as: = Engineering surveying & mapping = Geodetic and geophysical applications = Asset management and Geographical Information Services = Meteorology applications = High precision farming such as: = yield mapping = plot mapping = animal/person surveillance = time/frequency applications = task automation = leisure applications = environmental protection = personal security User identification: Non transport applications concern both professional users (scientific, farming, geodetic applications ) and private users (leisure). It has to be noted that the leisure segment will concern a huge number of users. This is mainly due to the ever-increasing variety of leisure applications available. In addition to this, the number of potential users in the leisure segment will increase significantly when mobile phones include a GNSS module. User requirements: Most scientific applications and professional applications on the whole require a high level of accuracy, but integrity levels however are not very demanding (except for time/frequency applications). Very often, local or regional coverage suffices. A medium level of availability should satisfy most of these non-transport applications and the need for a communication link is clearly dependent on the kind of application. R /02/01 22

23 Current and future candidate : Today, most non-transport applications use a GPS or DGPS receiver (post processing is used to improve accuracy). In the future, Galileo Open Access Service or modernized GPS should satisfy most of the accuracy and integrity requirements of these applications. Table 5 : selection Non transport applications Core element and current candidate Core element and future candidate Applications Current GPS Galileo OAS Modern GPS Engineering surveying and mapping Geodetic and geophysical applications X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Asset management and GIS X X X X (X) X Meteorology X X X X Time/Frequency application X (X) X X X X Yield mapping Plot mapping Leisure X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Emerging applications and associated New GNSS applications are invented everyday and will become probably fully operational in few years. These emerging applications are really numerous and should provide a huge market for the years to come. R /02/01 23

24 4.3.1 Road segment The emerging road transport applications identified in the framework of this project are as follows: = Speed management = Car pooling = Lane control = Integrated city logistics = Accident management = Road pricing and tolling = Re-routing = Behaviour registration = Urban traffic control = Automatic vehicle control = Parking management Most of these applications and services are aimed at improving the driving conditions of the single traveller and at ensuring technical assistance and support. The development of this kind of application is strictly linked to Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) projects. User identification: Most of these emerging applications are aimed at all private and professional road users such as taxis, road haulage, fire brigade services, public transport. This total account for some 175 million potential users in Europe. User requirements: For the emerging road applications, technical positioning requirements are not any more demanding than for present road applications. Accuracy requirements for most of these applications are to within 10 metres (except for "lane control" and "speed management" which require accuracy to within less than 1 metre). However, availability requirements are critical since most of these applications need to be operational in urban canyons, underground, in tunnels... As for present applications, all emerging road applications need a communication link (1 or 2 way),except for "urban traffic control". Communication link reliability is essentially of commercial importance. For the years to come, European ITS policy should be of major importance for the development of these road applications and should play a significant role in strengthening the European position on the road segment. R /02/01 24

25 Future candidate : Due to accuracy and integrity level requirements, many emerging road applications will require the Galileo Controlled Access Service and very often a ground-based augmentation will also be necessary for availability in masked areas. The table below shows the selection. Table 6 : selection - Road applications Core element and future candidate Applications Galileo Open Access Service Modernized GPS Speed management Lane control Accident management Re-routing Parking management Urban traffic control Car pooling Integrated city logistics Road pricing and tolling Behaviour registration X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X*1 X Note :*1: If high integrity is required 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Maritime segment Emerging maritime and in-land waterway applications identified are as follows: = Navigation aids = Hydrographic and oceanographic survey = Monitoring and control = Ship trialing = Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) User identification: Most of these emerging applications are aimed at professional users (fishing, tanker and bulk carrier companies, maritime institutes ). This accounts for several thousand users (> ). R /02/01 25

26 User requirements: The main user requirements in emerging maritime applications are clearly very close to the technical requirements of present applications. No other specific and important specifications have been identified over and above current applications. Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) is one of the most significant emerging applications. VTS technical requirements are not excessively demanding and could reflect emerging maritime user needs. Future candidate : Galileo Controlled Access or Open Access Services will be required depending on the level of accuracy and integrity required for these emerging applications (see table below). Table 7 : selection - Maritime applications Core element and future candidate Applications Galileo Open Access Service Modernized GPS Navigation aids X Monitoring and control X X Vessel Traffic Services (X) (X) X X Other areas of application X X 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Aviation segment For the aviation segment, the emerging applications identified in the framework of the T project are as follows: = High precision navigation = Surveillance applications = High precision approach and landing = Communication applications = Airport traffic management = Free flight User identification: Emerging aviation applications concern the entire aeronautical community. Over 30,000 potential users have been identified in Europe for general and commercial aviation. R /02/01 26

27 User requirements: As for "aircraft navigation" (see "present applications" section), the technical requirements have been and will be defined by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation). Requirements for both present and emerging applications are extremely demanding since many safety critical aspects are at stake The integrity level is doubtless the most important parameter for all aviation applications (present, emerging and latent). A reliable communication link is also required, especially for airport traffic management applications or more generally for surveillance applications. Future candidate : Local augmentations (e.g. LADGNSS), wide area augmentations (e.g. EGNOS, WAAS and MSAS), and finally a Galileo Controlled Access Service will probably offer essential support to most emerging aviation applications. The table below shows the selection. Table 8 : selection -Aviation applications Core element and future candidate Applications Galileo Open Access Service Modernized GPS High precision navigation x x High precision approach and landing x x x Airport traffic management Surveillance applications x x x x x x x x Communication applications Note :the "( )" means that the is only an option, it is not essential x x 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter Rail segment All rail applications have been considered as "emerging applications" because most of them are in the experimental or feasibility phases. The selection of rail applications is as follows: = Track measurement and maintenance = Security control = Global management system = Traffic information to passengers R /02/01 27

28 User identification: Most of these rail applications concern all wagons and traction units accounting for some 500,000 potential users in Europe. User requirements: "Global management system" and "traffic information to passengers" are not very demanding either in terms of accuracy or integrity. However, "security control" and "track maintenance" require a very high level of accuracy (< 1cm) and integrity (only for security control), because many safety critical aspects have to be taken into account. Certification procedures also have to be taken into account. Most railway applications require reliable communication links for technical communication needs. At present, different solutions are being developed to meet these needs, in particular GSM-R (GSM adapted to railway use). But the use of complementary satellite systems may also be considered and would be of great interest for applications in areas not covered by a ground communications network. Future candidate : Due to the low constraint levels required by "global management system" and "traffic information to passengers", Galileo Open Access Service or Modernized GPS seem to be the best candidates for these 2 applications. However, none of the future satellite navigation systems meet the accuracy requirements of "security control" and "track maintenance" applications. So the Galileo Open Access or Controlled Access Service could be used (depending on the integrity level), but a complementary system will always be necessary. The table below shows the selection. Table 9 : selection - Rail applications Core element and future candidate Applications Galileo Open Access Service Modernized GPS Global management system X X X Track measurement and maintenance X X X Security control X (X) X X Traffic information to passengers X X 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter 3 R /02/01 28

29 4.3.5 Intermodal segment The inter-connection of different modes of transport is becoming increasingly essential as distribution and delivery businesses seek to optimise the transport chain. To achieve this aim, it is necessary to co-ordinate the various transport services in a way that allows changes of transport mode without delays. In this way, the emerging intermodal applications selected are as follows: = Tracking and tracing = Cargo management = Fleet management User identification: It is really difficult to estimate the potential number of users for these applications but it should exceed several thousand. Carriers, shipping companies, haulage companies, logistic control centres, but also rail and maritime operators could be interested in this kind of application. User requirements: The main technical requirements are not extremely demanding for this kind of application, except for dangerous loads (high integrity required in this case). All applications require accuracy to within 1 to 5 meters because the size of containers or packaging is generally less than 10 meters and it is important to differentiate the position of one load in relation to that of another load. A communication link is also systematically required to transmit the position of loads to the management centre. Very low cost equipment is essential for this kind of application. Future candidate : Given the specifications, Galileo Open Access Service seems to be sufficient for most intermodal applications. The Galileo Controlled Access Service may be required for dangerous loads. The table hereafter shows the selection. Table 10 : selection Intermodal applications Core element and future candidate Applications Galileo Open Access Service Modernized GPS Tracking and tracing Fleet management X X X X X X Cargo management X X 1.1: Satellite based augmentation services 1.2: Enhanced services offered by the core system 2.1: Terrestrial enhancement to increase system availability 2.2: Terrestrial enhancement to increase service performances 3.1: Use of external data (application level) 3.2: Use of external services (application level) For more details see chapter 3 R /02/01 29