SP500 November Market Timing Report

Transcription

1 SP500 November Market Timing Report Anticipating the Swing Moves Before They Happen! Markets move in WAVES. This is especially true with the SP500, as you can see from the graphic chart logo shown at the top of this page. These waves we see on the chart are the result of cyclic forces that have varying degrees of influence on this market. You might think of these cyclic influences to be much like the seasonal (cyclic) effect on grains (such as Wheat, a traded market). Because cycles repeat and because there is a mathematical relationship between different cycles (just like the relationship between the 24-hour cycle of a day and the 365-day cycle of a year), we are able to discern a good number of upcoming moves with decent accuracy for trading purposes. In this SP500 Market Timing Report, I will be providing the reader with a series of calendar dates that represent small wave moves anticipated for the upcoming month. By using a little risk management and common sense, these moves can provide nice opportunities for profit.

2 DISCLAIMER It is important to provide a disclaimer so that there are no misunderstandings as to what is being offered in this Market Timing Report. The information found in this report is the result of extensive analysis on historical price data and is anticipated to provide the reader with a substantial edge. However, in no way is there a guarantee that one or more of these anticipated wave moves will actually turn out, because past performances, no matter how accurate, can insure that the anticipated future performance will be as accurate, or accurate at all. Trading is risky. I know you know that, but the law requires I state the obvious. How you use this information is up to you, but I must state that it is provided for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY in order that you understand that the responsibility and liability of using it for trading falls on you. In other words, my service to you is as a Market Analyst and not as an Advisor.

3 The Wave Moves In order to get the most from this report, you must understand what a wave move statement is. Here is an example: 10/ > 10/15 The above statement can be expressed in English this way: A move is anticipated to be from the 10/5 time period to the 10/15 time period. Note that nothing is said as to whether this move will start from a TOP and end with a BOTTOM. Unfortunately, while we could speculate early as to what they could be, there is no way to really know until the first time period arrives, in this case 10/5. Every date listed in this report has a maximum deviation of 1 (one) trading day. So while the above listed move starts at 10/5, it would not be uncommon that the move actually starts a day early (10/4) or a day late (10/8). The same can be said for the date listed as the end of the wave move.

4 CHART 1 The chart above is a daily chart of the SP500 showing price bars from 9/12/2012 to 10/26/2012. The dates on this chart are my personal notes. Because I analyze many charts each week, I use this notation to remind me of what to expect for likely market turns coming up. Note that the wave move of 10/ > 10/15 that we are using as an example was actually a forecasted move in the SP500. My calculations indicated that a turn was likely around (10/4-8) and another around (10/15). Since 10/5 is a day after 10/4 and a day early of 10/8, it was the common sense choice as my starting point for the wave. This turned out to be correct.

5 What I want to point out is that the determination of whether 10/5 would likely be a TOP came down to noting that prices were RISING when it entered that time period. This is just common sense and easy to do. Wave moves are fickle at times and so you need to understand just how fickle it can be. For example, looking at Chart 1 you can see that the next wave move was from 10/15 bottom to 10/18 top. This was forecasted in advance as well on my FDates Report to FDate trading members. If I had presented it to you in a report like the one you are reading now, it will be listed like this: 10/ > 10/18 Now suppose that things had turned out differently for the 10/5, 10/15 and 10/18 forecasted turns. CHART 2 Chart 2 above is doctored, in that I changed the bars in a paint program to make a point. Notice that now we still have a move from 10/5 to 10/15, and from 10/15

6 to 10/18 (actual 10/16 to 10/19). The only difference is that both wave moves are DOWN. The point I am making here is that you cannot assume that each consecutive wave listed in this report, if it does produce the expected move, will result in the next listed wave move to be in the opposite direction. While that would be our hope and would make for a nice picture-perfect trading scenario, the reality is that we must always be on guard for scenarios such as that of Chart 2. One last thing I need to stress before we get into the upcoming expected wave moves is that the market goes from periods of nicely formed cycle waves (such as those seen on Chart 1) to periods of strong trend moves that require you to have a sharp eye for the subtle waves within. CHART 3

7 Chart 3 shows strong trend moves where each wave move is in the same direction because the counter-moves were just minor blips on the radar (green dotted waves), and then you have the wave moves where as one ends the other starts in the opposite direction. So be aware of this and you should be able to act accordingly to it. This concludes the LESSON part of this Market Timing Report. On the following page(s) are your anticipated wave moves for the SP500 for the upcoming month. Again, remember this is to provide you with the results of my cycle analysis work on the SP500 and that it should not be considered that the SP500 must act according to these results. The market will do whatever it will do, and all we can do as analysts is to make determinations as to whether there are points in time that can result in the beginning of a new move. If I was to provide any kind of advice, it would be to use other methods to help you confirm the expectation that you have. In other words, if the time has arrived where one of the listed wave moves is expected to start, see if the price bar is at known support/resistance, such as that calculated using Fibonacci, based on previous top and bottom levels, and even trend lines off two or more bottoms or tops. And now, it is time to find out what we could see as wave moves in the SP500 now coming up! There are 5 Wave Moves Anticipated for November Also included are three (3) WEEKLY turns at the end of the report. (TO RECEIVE PLEASE PURCHASE COMPLETE DOCUMENT)