Imported Iron Ore Market- New PMI Number Likely to Bounce Price for a Short Rebound

Transcription

1 Imed Market- New PMI Number Likely to Bounce Price for a Short Rebound UMETAL-CHINA, Imed iron ore market remained sluggish, however foreign quotes as well spot offering prices stayed still on increasing market confidence from the new-released PMI and even with possibilities for boosting. Weak market under weak demands of iron ore remained in yesterday while rebar and swaps went slight ups and downs and billet rose slightly. A tender for 70,000 Yandi concluded at USD 124.5, meanwhile a PB offered at USD 134.5, arriving in Apr, failed to conclude with rarely enquiries. On platforms, rarely small amount offers were published and none of them managed to sell out. For spot cargo at Chinese s, without solid sups from purchase of steelmakers, with only transactions for thousands, the price dipped for RMB 5-10 further. However, initial numbers of PMI, rising to 51.7, released by HSBC suddenly boost the market confidence for all market players. Previous PMI numbers in Feb made investors worried about the weak session of China economy would begin while the new numbers showed the key factor of low Feb numbers would because the long holiday of Chinese New Year and showed the steady growing economy situation in China since the beginning of Steel billet inched up by RMB10/tonne to RMB 3,240/tonne in Tangshan market, with the most active rebar future 1310 opens at RMB 3885/tonne this morning. Some rolling mills reedly met improved deliveries, while the whole transactions were unfavorable. Steel traders choose to check the market carefully. Of the 86 Medium- and large-sized steelmakers, 26 ones were in red, with a total loss of RMB2.079 billion. Although the one-third loss coverage declined from a year ago, the entire steel sector is still distressed. RMB/tonne) March 21, 1-day 1-week 4-week Change 2013 Change Change Billet Tangshan 3, Rebar (HRB335 &525mm) Beijing (Hebei Steel) 3, Shanghai (Shagang) 3, Guangzhou (Shaoguan Steel) 3, HRC (Q *1500*C) Beijing (Tangsteel) 3, Shanghai (Shagang) 3, Guangzhou (Liuzhou Steel) 3, Steel Strip 145mm Tangshan 3, Angle Steel Tangshan 3,

2 Rebar futures rose slightly on Tuesday for its Oct contract closed at RMB 3,869. Delivery Last Change Open Month Settlement Open High Low Close Settlement Change % Volume Volume Interest Change TOTAL For swaps, Mar contract closed at USD ; Apr contract closed at USD on Wednesday. Swaps curve and closing prices 21-Mar Market prices FIS Period Bid Offer Close Mar-13 $ $ $ Apr-13 $ $ $ Q213 $ $ $ Q313 $ $ $ Q413 $ $ $ Q114 $ $ $ Cal14 $ $ $ Cal15 $ $ $ For Indexes, TSI dipped USD 0.30 to USD ; MBIO dropped USD 0.89 to USD ; Platts down USD 0.25 to USD while index average stayed USD 0.48 lower to USD

3 INDEX Price Change in $ MTD TSI 62% $ $0.30 $ MBIO $ $0.89 $ Platts $ $0.25 $ Index Average $ $0.48 $ (US$ 1=RMB ; Reing by Nick Zhang) ANNEX: Stocks at Tangshan Region Steelmakers Scale (annual billet production) Domestic iron ore Imed iron ore Sintering ratio for imed Change iron ore Over 10 Mln days days Over 90% 5-10 Mln days 20 days Over 90% 3-5 Mln 15 days 15 days 80%-90% Beneath 3 Mln 15 days days Over 80% Steel inventories on Mar 15, (Unit: k tonnes) Product Change WoW Same Change YoY Mar 15, Mar 8, Period of Amount % Amount % 2012 Rebar Wire Rod CR Steel HR Steel Medium Plate Total Operation Rates of Furnaces in Tangshan 3-8 Maintaining numbers Volumes Operation rates Average grade % 50.3%

4 Price Gap between imed and domestic iron ore in RMB/tonne 62.5% Newman at Jingtang 66% domestic at Price Gap Tangshan Remark: DMT, tax included, deliver to mills in cash. Imed iron ore stocks at Major 34 Chinese s 3-15 Region Mar 8 Mar 1 Change TOTAL 73,850,000 77,750,000-3,900,000 2,150,000 2,150,000 - Australian 33,250,000 34,800,000-1,550,000 Brazil 19,150,000 20,000, ,000 Sales Prices of Imed in Port Qingdao on Mar 21, 2013 Port Grades RMB/WMT(17% Price Change VAT included) PB 61.50% PB lumps 62.50% MAC 61.50% MAC lumps 62.50% Newman 62.50% Newman lumps 63.50% YANDI 58.00% Rocket 59.00% SF 57.60% SSF 56.50% Robe river 57.00% Qingdao Channar 62.00% Channar lumps 64.00% Mount Gibson 60.00% Mount Gibson lumps 62.00% One steel 58.00% One steel lumps 58.00% Atlas 57.00% PMI 57.00% Bonnie 57.50% Carajas 65.00% Brazilian 64.50% Brazilian 63.50% 950 -

5 Port Grades RMB/WMT(17% Price Change VAT included) Brazilian 60.00% Brazilian 66.00% Brazilian pellets 65.00% Brazilian lumps 65.00% S. African 65.00% S. African 64.00% S. African 58.00% S. African lumps 65.00% n 63.50% n 62.00% n 58.00% n 57.00% n 54.00% n 52.00% n 50.00% n lumps 57.00% n lumps 54.00% Iranian hematite 62% Iranian hematite 60% Iranian hematite 58% Iranian hematite 54% Iranian magnetite 61% Iranian magnetite 58% Iranian magnetite 56% Iranian magnetite lumps 61% Ukrainian 66.00% Ukrainian 63.50% 970 -

6 Port Grades RMB/WMT(17% Price Change VAT included) Ukrainian pellets 65.00% Ukrainian pellets 63.00% Canada 66.00% Canadian pellets 65.00% Russia 66% Russia 63.50% Russian pellets 65% Russian pellets 63% Indonesian 62.00% Indonesian 52.00% Peruvian 64.00% Chilean 67.00% Chilean pellets 67.00% Chliean 63.50% Malaysian sea sands 60.00% - - Malaysian 57.00% Mauritanian 62.00% U.S % U.S % U.S. pellets 65.00% Venezuelan 64.50% Mexico 63.50% Mexico 58.00% Mexican lumps 63.50% N. Korea 54.00% Philippine sea sands 56.00% Zelanian sea sands 58.00% Finnish 66.00% Bahrainian pellets 65.00%

7 Foreign Quotes for Imed in China Country Product % CFR Grade ($/DMT) Change FOB ($/DMT) Change Port of Loading Remark Australia PB Dampier/Hedland Australia Newman Dampier/Hedland Australia MAC Dampier/Hedland Australia YANDI Dampier/Hedland Australia Robe River Dampier/Hedland Australia PB lumps Dampier/Hedland Australia Newman lumps Dampier/Hedland Australia MAC lumps Dampier/Hedland Australia YANDI lumps Dampier/Hedland Brazil SFCJ Tubarao/PDM Brazil SSFT Tubarao/PDM Brazil SFOT Tubarao/PDM Brazil Lumps Tubarao/PDM

8 Brazil Pellets Tubarao/PDM Chile Chile Caldera Caldera 63.5/ Chennai/Paradip 63/ Chennai/Paradip 61/ Chennai/Paradip 62/ Chennai/Paradip 60/ Chennai/Paradip 59/ Goa/Mangalore 58/ Goa/Mangalore 55/ Goa 53/ Goa Indonesia Iron Sand 56/ Jakarta Indonesia 51/ Jakarta loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n loaded at one n ; To be Northern s loaded at one n loaded at one n northern s Moisture: 14%;To be unloaded at Chinese northern

9 s Iran Hematite 62/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Hematite 61/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Hematite 60/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Hematite 59/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 62/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 61/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 60/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Iran Magnetite 59/ BANDA ABBAS 6%Si,2%Al,0.2%P, Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Mexico Lumps 58/ PENANG 56/ PENANG 51/ PENANG 57/ PENANG Lazaro Mexico Lumps Lazaro Mexico Magnetite Lazaro Philippines 51/ Subic Philippines Iron Sand 58/ Subic Moisture: 10%;To be unloaded at Chinese Moisture: 12%;To be unloaded at Chinese Moisture: 14%;To be unloaded at Chinese Moisture: 9%;To be Moisture: 6%;To be Moisture: 6%;To be Moisture: 35%;To be unloaded at Chinese

10 Russia Russia Russia Russia Russia South Africa South Africa South Africa South Africa Pellets Pellets Lumps Black Sea Black Sea Murmansk Black Sea Black Sea 65/ Durban/Elizabeth 65/ Durban/Elizabeth Durban/Elizabeth Durban/Elizabeth South Africa Magnetite 56/ Durban/Elizabeth Venezuela Venezuela Lumps 64/ BOCA /Grande 64/ BOCA /Grande Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 8%; China Major Ports Moisture: 1%;To be