TSC 220. materials. resources and scarcity

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1 TSC 220 materials resources and scarcity

2 generation of current any change in the magnetic environment of a coil of wire will cause a voltage to be produced (electromotive force, EMF), with I = V/R (current = voltage divided by resistance)

electric turbines an electric generator converts mechanical energy to electrical energy typical power plant uses a steam turbine: burn fuel (including nuclear) to heat water to

3 electric turbines an electric generator converts mechanical energy to electrical energy typical power plant uses a steam turbine: burn fuel (including nuclear) to heat water to create steam use steam to drive a turbine, rotating a magnet surrounded by coils of wire to create a current co-generation plants use excess heat to create steam for heating and cooling

4 hydroelectric

5 wind energy turbine is located in the top of the tower need powerful magnets to generate power turbine blades are fiber composites

6 magnets efficiency of electrical generation tied to magnets want very high magnetic field best magnets are made out of rare earth elements: Magnet B r (T) H ci (ka/m) (BH) max (kj/m 3 ) T c ( C) Nd 2 Fe 14 B (sintered) Nd 2 Fe 14 B (bonded) SmCo 5 (sintered) Sm(Co,Fe,Cu,Zr) 7 (sintered) Alnico (sintered) Sr-ferrite (sintered) rare earth magnets used in many products: cars, maglev trains, electric guitars,...

7 rare earths PERIOD GROUP 1 IA 18 VIIIA H 2 IIA 13 IIIA 14 IVA 15 VA 16 VIA 17 VIIA HELIUM IIIA ATOMIC NUMBER RELATIVE ATOMIC MASS (1) efficiency Li Be of electrical generation B tied C Nto Omagnets F Ne HYDROGEN LITHIUM Na Mg SODIUM BERYLLIUM K Ca Sc VIIIB ALUMINIUM SILICON PHOSPHORUS SULPHUR CHLORINE ARGON want very high magnetic field per mass MAGNESIUM 3 IIIB 4 IVB VB VIB VIIB IB IIB Rb Sr TECHNETIUM RUTHENIUM RHODIUM PALLADIUM SILVER CADMIUM INDIUM TIN ANTIMONY TELLURIUM IODINE XENON (209) 85 (210) 86 (222) best magnets made out of rare earth elements Cs Ba 87 (223) 88 (226) Fr Ra La-Lu Ac-Lr Ti V Cr Y Zr Hf Nb Ta Mo W 104 (261) 105 (262) (266) B Mn 43 (98) Tc Re Fe Ru Os Co Rh Ir Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Ni Pd Pt Cu Ag Au Zn Cd Hg Al P Ar POTASSIUM CALCIUM SCANDIUM TITANIUM VANADIUM CHROMIUM MANGANESE IRON COBALT NICKEL COPPER ZINC GALLIUM GERMANIUM ARSENIC SELENIUM BROMINE RUBIDIUM STRONTIUM YTTRIUM ZIRCONIUM NIOBIUM MOLYBDENUM CAESIUM FRANCIUM BARIUM RADIUM PERIODIC TABLE OF THE ELEMENTS Lanthanide GROUP NUMBERS IUPAC RECOMMENDATION (1985) SYMBOL HAFNIUM TANTALUM TUNGSTEN BORON GROUP NUMBERS CHEMICALABSTRACT SERVICE (1986) ELEMENT NAME BORON Ga In Tl CARBON Si Ge Sn Pb (264) 108 (277) 109 (268) 110 (281) 111 (272) 112 (285) 114 (289) Uun Uuu Uub Uuq NITROGEN As Sb Bi OXYGEN S Se Te Po FLUORINE RHENIUM OSMIUM IRIDIUM PLATINUM GOLD MERCURY THALLIUM LEAD BISMUTH POLONIUM ASTATINE Actinide RUTHERFORDIUM DUBNIUM SEABORGIUM BOHRIUM HASSIUM MEITNERIUM UNUNNILIUM UNUNUNIUM UNUNBIUM UNUNQUADIUM Cl Br I At He NEON Kr KRYPTON Xe Rn RADON (1) Pure Appl. Chem., 73, No. 4, (2001) Relative atomic mass is shown with five significant figures. For elements have no stable nuclides, the value enclosed in brackets indicates the mass number of the longest-lived isotope of the element. However three such elements (Th, Pa, and U) do have a characteristic terrestrial isotopic composition, and for these an atomic weight is tabulated. Editor: Aditya Vardhan (adivar@nettlinx.com) 6 7 LANTHANIDE La LANTHANUM Ce ACTINIDE 89 (227) Ac Th Pa ACTINIUM CERIUM Pr Nd U THORIUM PROTACTINIUM URANIUM 61 (145) Sm Eu Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Pm Gd Copyright EniG. (eni@ktf-split.hr) PRASEODYMIUM NEODYMIUM PROMETHIUM SAMARIUM EUROPIUM GADOLINIUM TERBIUM DYSPROSIUM HOLMIUM ERBIUM THULIUM YTTERBIUM 93 (237) 94 (244) 95 (243) 96 (247) 97 (247) 98 (251) 99 (252) 100 (257) 101 (258) 102 (259) Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lu LUTETIUM 103 (262) NEPTUNIUM PLUTONIUM AMERICIUM CURIUM BERKELIUM CALIFORNIUM EINSTEINIUM FERMIUM MENDELEVIUM NOBELIUM LAWRENCIUM Lr

8 energy storage heat storage chemical storage (batteries)

9 batteries example: anode: Zn (s) + 2OH (aq) ZnO (s) + H2O (l) + 2e cathode: 2MnO2 (s) + H2O (l) + 2e Mn2O3 (s) + 2OH (aq) for storage need to be rechargeable with long lifetimes

10 material issues for transportation, need low weight, long lifetimes, high capacity,... best candidate: lithium-ion batteries for electrical generation, need long lifetimes, high capacity,... more options, including lithium-based

11 lithium-ion batteries 600 million cars on the road x 18 kg Li/car = 10.8 million tonnes of Li needed plus whatever other uses we need (computers, etc.) do we have enough?

The technological solu/on is only part of the answer to a sustainable energy program Materials are finite resources and yet we design without considera/on of end- of- life recyclability.

12 The technological solu/on is only part of the answer to a sustainable energy program Materials are finite resources and yet we design without considera/on of end- of- life recyclability. Materials for cri/cal technologies are scarce and we need to invest in finding alternate strategies for building systems. Assuming everyone aspires to reach a standard of living comparable to that in America, we would need to increase the produc/on of steel, copper and aluminum significantly. h?p:// Engineers will need to become more knowledgeable about areas normally outside the usual curriculum. They should have an understanding of the social, economic and poli/cal impact to create a society that is truly sustainable.

13 it is big, but not inexhaustible

14 how much we need how much we have

15 how much we need how much we can afford

16 here we will focus on the scarcity of metals (including indium, gallium, copper,...) rare, difficult to find, expensive

17 DOE Cri/cal Elements 17

18 APS / MRS Cri/cal Elements 18

19 how much do we have?

20 Reserves Reserve Base Resources Resource Base

21 resource base all of a mineral commodity that is in earth s crust

22 how much is there?

23 resources all of the mineral commodity whose location is known or estimated not necessarily accurate

24 example: oil "#$%&!'(!#!!"#$#%&"!)(*%$+),#+)'(!'-!+.%!/%+0'1%23!,%'1',4!'-!%#5.!/0'*)(5%6!+.%!#$$%$$3%(+!5'2/1%$!,%'!

25 reserve base quantity of a mineral commodity that meets specified criteria related to current practices, including grade, quality, thickness, and depth

26 reserves quantity of a mineral commodity that is both known and profitable to exploit with existing technology, prices and other conditions

27 factors in a reserve estimate mining and geological factors, such as knowledge of the geology of the deposit sufficient that it is predictable and verifiable; extraction and mine plans based on ore models; quantification of geotechnical risk basically, managing the geological faults, joints, and ground fractures so the mine does not collapse; and consideration of technical risk essentially, statistical and variography to ensure the ore is sampled properly: metallurgical factors, including scrutiny of assay data to ensure accuracy of the information supplied by the laboratory required because ore reserves are bankable. Essentially, once a deposit is elevated to reserve status, it is an economic entity and an asset upon which loans and equity can be drawn generally to pay for its extraction at (hopefully) a profit;

28 factors in a reserve estimate economic factors; environmental factors; marketing factors; legal factors; governmental factors; social factors

29 Reserves Reserve Base Resources Resource Base

30 RESERVES from New Scientist ( Earth Audit, May 2007)

32 how well do we know these quantities? reserves: very well reserve base: well resources: not well resource base: reasonably well

33 estimates of reserves and resources change with time

34 Reserves Reserve Base Resources Resource Base these are dynamic quantities

35 change in resource estimates Figure 4. Growth of resources 16 Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

36 rate of discovery of major deposits is slowing cost of exploration Figure 13. Global discovery rate 37 Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

37 change in reserves based on economics in 1900, needed ore with 3% Cu to be profitable, now typically have 0.1%. the higher the price the more reserves we have

38 Are there technological solutions to increase our reserves?

39 Possible new supply: new sources better mining recycling sea water mine tailings landfills better extractive processes...

40 improved mining Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

41 estimates of future amounts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ritical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

42 how much do we need?

43 world consumption varies widely around the world, but most in the developed world the future consumption is very difficult to estimate

44 latest estimate from the Department of Energy December 2010 US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

45 estimates of future demand for key non-energy materials non clean-energy needs (mobile communication devices,...) - assume demand increases along with global economy (3.3% growth to 2015 and 3% growth ) US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

46 estimates of future demand for key energy materials clean energy needs for - permanent magnets (used in wind turbines and electric vehicles) - advanced batteries (used in electric vehicles) - thin-film semiconductors (used in photovoltaic (PV) power systems) - phosphors (used in high-efficiency lighting systems) US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

47 key energy materials US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

48 estimates of future demand for key energy materials estimates for clean energy needs based on - deployment: total units of the generic clean energy technology in a given year - market share: the percentage of installations captured by a specific clean energy technology - material intensity: demand for the material in each unit of the clean energy component US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

49 estimates of future demand!! "#$%&'()#*!)+!,&-$./!!"#$%"&'()"#*+(,-&.(/("&#0& -1(&!(,(234&5(41,#"#6*& 01234"!5464"21"786!! 7%28(-&91%2(&#0&9)(43034& :"(%,&;,(26*&5(41,#"#6*& 0$(&#9$:!9.(&.;9(*! )+!(<&!=:&$.! 4.&#>*!=)-?).&.(!! "#$%&'()#*!1! '-.! '-.! '-.! '-.! '-.! /012! "#$%&'()#*!=! /012! /012! '-.! "#$%&'()#*!,! /012! /012! /012! US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

50 estimates of future demand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ritical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

51 estimates of future demand! US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

52 estimates of future demand!!"#$%&'&()* +,,-./01&%* 2&3* 4"%"05601&%* 71($* 4"%"05601&%* 8"/'&)."%0* 1%*9:9;* ST! &6676!%0B53!ST!"5F5A:BC!K+WM! G<D-! ;XDX! <65="0* ST! "$+*!/!01!&6676!ST!"5F5A:BC! G</! =</! >$65"* ST! "6%7!/!01!&6676!ST!"5F5A:BC! G</! =</! *!"#$%&'&()* +,,-./01&%* 2&3* 71($*?%0"%,10)*?%0"%,10)* ST! &P2!"09B79B!01!$96:>8!F7?!"$+*!+W!KB0997EM! GVD=! GG<! <60"516',*?%0"%,10)* ST! &P2!"09B79B!01!+533:>8!F7?!"$+*!+W!KB0997EM!.! ;<!! ST! &P2!"09B79B!01!%733>?:>8!F7?!"6%7!+W! KB0997EM!.Y! G.=!! US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

53 DOE criticality estimates Importance to Clean Energy Importance to clean energy encompasses two attributes for each material over the short and medium term. Clean Energy Demand (75%): captures the importance of the material in magnets, batteries, photovoltaic (PV) films and phosphors used in clean energy technologies. Substitutability Limitations (25%): addresses constraints on practically substituting for the material and technology within clean energy technologies. Substitution could occur at any level of the supply chain. This may include using different raw materials, components or even end-use technologies. This includes substitution by element, such as mischmetal for lanthanum in batteries, and also component technology-based substitutions, such as induction motors for permanent magnet motors. US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

54 Supply Risk Basic Availability (40%): the extent to which global supply will be able to meet demand. The qualitative score may also take into account other factors such as global reserves, mines projected to start up after 2015 and additional supplies from recycling. Competing Technology Demand (10%): captures whether non-energy sector demand is expected to grow rapidly, thus constraining the supply of the material available for the energy sector. Political, Regulatory and Social Factors (20%): risk associated with political, social and regulatory factors within major producer countries. This includes the risk that political instability in a country will threaten mining and processing projects; that countries will impose export quota.,... Co-dependence on other Markets (10%): covers instances where a mineral is coproduct or byproduct of with other minerals found in the same ore deposit. US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

55 US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

56 US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

57 US DOE Critical Materials Strategy, Dec. 2010

58 the DOE estimates are short term: only to 2025 what are the long time prospects?

59 Hubbard peak production theory Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

60 Hubbard peak production theory Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

61 peaking of lead production gure 10. Peaking of lead 32 Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

62 peaking of zirconium production Figure 11. Peaking of zirconium 33 Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

63 peaking of iron production note! Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

64 Gallium:

65 peak year of various element production Table 1. Production peak and ultimate recoverable resources for a few minerals 35 Mineral Peak year URR from URR from USGS: reserves + (logistics) logistic fitting cumulative production up to 2006 [ton] [ton] Mercury 1962 (5.8 ± 0.4) Tellurium 1984 (1.0 ± 0.4) Lead 1986 (3.3 ± 0.2) Cadmium 1989 (1.33 ± 0.09) Potash (K 2 CO 3 ) 1989 (1.54 ± 0.09) Phosphate rock 1989 (8.1 ± 0.4) Thallium 1995 (4.7 ± 0.3) Selenium 1994 (1.1 ± 0.14) Zirconium minerals 1994 (3.9 ± 0.25) Rhenium 1998 (1.0 ± 0.3) Gallium 2002 (2.5 ± 0.5) (?) Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

66 copper: peak year in 2040? by 2100, demand will outstrip supply. (Gordon, PNAS (2006))

67 rate of discovery of major deposits is slowing cost of exploration Figure 13. Global discovery rate 37 Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

68 how long will elements last? = reserve base _ world consumption this method underestimates the time until we run out by using the reserve base (resources are growing) and ignoring recycling, etc.

69 how gauge consumption? note that rich people use many more resources than poor people do but, poor people want to live like us Material Scarcity, an M2i study, Wouters and Boi (2009)

70 consider two scenarios Scenario A: world consumes at its present rate of consumption (<< US) Scenario B: world consumes at 1/2 the rate of the US per person this scenarios may overestimate use

71 A B ALUMINIUM (transport, electrical, consumer durables) ANTIMONY (drugs) CHROMIUM (chrome plating, paint) COPPER (wire, coins, plumbing) GALLIUM n/a n/a (LEDs, solar cells, lasers) GERMANIUM n/a n/a (infrared optics, semiconductors) GOLD (jewellery, dental) HAFNIUM n/a n/a (computer chips, power stations)

72 A B INDIUM 13 4 (LCDs) LEAD 42 8 (lead pipes, batteries) NICKEL (batteries, turbine blades) PHOSPHORUS (fertiliser, animal feed) PLATINUM (jewellery, catalysts, fuel cells for cars) RHODIUM n/a n/a (X-rays, cat. converters) SILVER 29 (jewellery, catalytic converters)

73 A B TANTALUM (cellphones, camera lenses) TIN (cans, solder) URANIUM (weapons, power stations) ZINC (galvanising)

74 are these estimates of years left accurate? depends on estimate of reserves projection of use

75 what is the future?

76 The OMG, we re doomed view is that no matter what we do we ll will be severely constrained in resources before 2100

77 The rose-colored glasses view is that with better mining technologies, recycling, etc., we ll be OK

78 More realistically, mining, recycling, other forms of capture will need to be combined with reduced use

79 Metal Stocks and Sustainability, Gordon et al, PNAS 103, 1209 (2006) Earth's natural wealth/ an audit, New Scientist May 2007, 027ns_005.htm The trouble with Lithium, lithium_shortage.pdf The Secret Sauce of High Tech: Obscure Metals, Discover Magazine August 2009 Some reading

80 Sustainability requires that what we need continues to be balanced by what we have Materials resources are finite and have a strong possibility of being depleted New extractive technologies combined with recycling will be needed to meet demand Reducing use for minerals will be required (dematerialization). Summary

81 Develop new methods for both extracting and recycling materials Develop new materials or materials systems (e.g., multifunctional materials) as replacements for those that are scarce and to reduce materials needs Change the role of the materials engineer in the design process, with cradle to grave mentality What can we do?

This resource contains three different versions of the periodic table, including a blank one for colouring!

Teaching notes This resource contains three different versions of the periodic table, including a blank one for colouring! It also contains tables of the Group 0, 1 and 7 elements with a few columns for