Managing the Grid in Areas with Increasingly Decentralized Power Production

Transcription

1 Managing the Grid in Areas with Increasingly Decentralized Power Production Kurt Rohrig Fraunhofer Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Kassel

2 Fraunhofer IWES: Institute Profile Research spectrum: Wind energy from material development to grid optimization Energy system technology for all renewables Wind energy Foundation: 2009 Annual budget: approx. 35 million Personal: approx. 500 Electricity grids Photovoltaics Hydro power Bio energy Marine energies Seite 2 advancing wind energy and energy system technology

3 W e l t b e v ö l k e r u n g [ M i l l i a r d e n ] k W h C O 2 - K o n z e n t r a t i o n [ p p m ] Global Situation and Future Trends W e l t e n e r g i e b e d a r f [ ] Global Growth of Population, Energy Demand, CO2 -Concentration 2 Global Energy Demand CO 2 -Concentration in the Atmosphere Global Population March 2012: 394 ppm Seite 3

4 Transformation of Electricity Sector Seite 4

5 Transformation of Energy Supply System Today 4000 TWh Primary Energy TWh Electricity STROM Electricity Electricity Heating WÄRME Heatpumps Heating VERKEHR Transport Transport E-mobility Seite 5

6 Gross Electricity Generation from RES and Consumption in Germany up to 2050 Seite 6

7 Wind Energy in Germany State of the Art and Potential WT MW Available Areas MW 390 TWh Seite 7

8 Impact of the PV-power production on the German power system 2013: 33 Gwp installed PV-plants Seite 8

9 Installed DG Capacity in Germany [GW] Total installed DG Capacity: 74 GW (33 GWp PV) Peak Load in Germany: 80 GW Geothermal Gas Biomass Water Wind PV Total % % % 60% 40% 5 20% 0 LV 0.4 kv MV/LV Substation MV 10-30kV HV/MV Substation HV 110 kv EHV/HV Substation EHV 220 kv + 0% Seite 9 Data Source: DGS,

10 FIT price (Euro Cent / kwh) German FIT Prices vs. Technology and Size (2012) e.g. different sizes of hydro DE Retail Electricity Price (21-24 Euro Cent / kwh) US Retail Avg. Price (9.6 Euro Cent / kwh) Baseload Avg. Price (5.4 Euro Cent / kwh) Epex Spot Avg. Price (5.2 Euro Cent / kwh) Seite 10 Source: FIT data compiled by GermanEnergyBlog See notes for other price data sources

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12 Power [MW] Short-term forecast Structure of a forecast system for the short-term forecast Online power meas. of representative wind farms Weather forecasts for the locations of rep. wind farms Wind power forecasts for the rep. wind farms Extrapolation to a control zone Online Forecast D+1 Forecast 4H Forecast 2H Representative Wind farms Numerical weather model Day Wind power forecast for a control zone Seite 12

13 Process of PV Power Forecast Satellite NWP (0 78 h) Cosmo-EU Radiation Temperature Installed PV-Capacity Preprocessing PV-forecast - EEG Database - PV Database (BNetzA) Classification by age, power Statistical information of : -inclination, orientation, - WR- und efficiency factor - losses Physical Simulation of all PV plants Seite 13 MOS NN

14 Future Energy Supply Scenarios Hourly RES generation and energy demand in 2020 Hourly RES generation and energy demand in 2050 Seite 14 German Lead Study 2009 without additional Consumers 2050 (meteorological basis 2007)

15 Residuallast (GW) Residual Load: Measure for Balance Efforts 60 Residual Load without E-Mobility, Heat-Punps and Cooling Systems (met. Year 2007) Residuallast ohne E-Mobilität, W ärmepumpen und Klimatisierung (Meteo-Jahr 2007) Überschüsse: TWh Defizite: 43.5 TWh Minimale Residuallast: GW Maximale Residuallast 48.2 GW -120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monat Defizite Fraunhofer (Last > EE-Einspeisung) IWES 2010 Überschüsse (EE-Einspeisung > Last) Seite 15 Source: IWES-Calculation for UBA Energy Target 100% Electricity from RES

16 Residuallast (GW) Load Management to Reduce Balance Efforts 60 Residual Load incl. E-Mobility, Heat-Punps, Cooling Systems and Hydro Storage (met. Year 2007 Residuallast nach allen Verbrauchern und Lastmanagement und PSW (Meteo-Jahr 2007) Überschüsse: TWh Defizite: 62.1 TWh Minimale Residuallast: GW Maximale Residuallast 54.1 GW -120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monat Fraunhofer IWES 2010 Defizite (Last > EE-Einspeisung) Überschüsse (EE-Einspeisung > Last) Seite 16 Source: IWES-Calculation for UBA Energy Target 100% Electricity from RES

17 Regional Supply Structures by VPP: Model Region Harz Renewable Power Plant Harz Device Control Market Information Generation Controlable Loads Storage Seite 17

18 Regional Supply Structures by VPP: Model Region Harz Renewable Power Plant Harz Device Control Market Information Generation Controlable Loads Storage Seite 18

19 Residuallast (GW) 60 Germany has insufficient Storage Capacity Residual Residuallast Load without ohne E-Mobilität, E-Mobility, Wärmepumpen Heat-Punps und and Klimatisierung Cooling (Meteo-Jahr Systems 2007) (met. Year 2007) 40 Balancing required Capacity and Power of Hydro Storage today -100 Überschüsse: TWh Defizite: 43.5 TWh Minimale Residuallast: GW Maximale Residuallast 48.2 GW Capacity and Power of Gas Storage today -120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monat 42 Mio. EHV Fraunhofer IWES 2010 Defizite (Last > EE-Einspeisung) Überschüsse (EE-Einspeisung > Last) Gas storage = x capacity of all hydro storage systems (bei GT,GuD = 28-55%) Source: IWES-Calculation for UBA Energy Target 100% Electricity from RES Seite 19

20 Coupling of the Electricity Grid and the Gas Distribution System SOURCES STORAGE / TRANSPORT CONSUMPTION ELECTRICITY GRID Balancing Electricity Electrolysis Gas Power Stations Heat GAS DISTRIBUTION Traffic Quelle: Specht et al, 2009 Sterner, 2009 Seite 20

21 std. dev of monthly imbalance [GW] Optimal Energy Mix and Transport to reduce Balance Efforts Fluctuation of monthly residual load (RES-consumption) in a 100% renewables scenario Total for regional view Highest required average transport capacity 15 GW (in D) Max. >>> Required storagecapacity 0,5% - 8% of average anual European electricity consumption TWh/a European view 1186GW wind PV/(PV+wind) 1741GW PV Seite 21 Optimal ratio between PV and wind power via minimal fluctuations

22 German Grid Development Plan Governmental driven Planned by R&D institutes and TSO s Organized by German TSO s Observed by German Regulator Seite 22

23 Häufigkeitsdichte Frequency Distribution of Power Plants Kernkraft (n = 6) Braunkohle (n = 22) Steinkohle (n = 40) Erdgas GuD (n = 34) Erdgas GT (n = 39) PSWTurb KWK (n = 77) BHKW Biogas Volllaststunden Full Load Hours [h] [h] Seite 23

24 Häufigkeitsdichte Frequency Distribution of Power Plants Braunkohle (n = 3) Steinkohle (n = 4) Erdgas GuD (n = 21) Erdgas GT (n = 41) PSWTurb KWK (n = 43) BHKW Biogas Full Volllaststunden Load Hours [h] [h] Seite 24

25 Active Contribution to System Reliability Active Power Control Frequency Control P [MW] 300 Gradient Control Wind power reserve 200 f Congestion management 100 Power limitation t t+i t+j t+n Time Gradient control Reactive Power Control P Reactive power range forecast Inductive Capacitive Reactive power control cos f Power factor control Seite 25 -Q Adjustable power factor +Q Voltage changes control

26 Nominal Power [%] Power [MW] Frequency Support / Control Power Provision 100% X % Reserve Power Reduced Power Control Power Energy feed-in Frequency [Hz] Time Time Seite 26

27 Services based on forecasts and confidence intervals Frequency Support Control power provision Seite 27

28 Supra-Regional Voltage Imbalance Energy surplus AC-load flow calculation for HV level (for HV w.o. conv. Power plants or reactive power compensation) Fall of Voltage Q! reactive power demand (Q!) at HVtransformers Energy lack (increasement of up to 36000Mvar in 2020) Seite 28

29 Methods to increase capability of voltage control by RES Voltage support by WT I B /I n 7 0,2 TransmissionCode SDLWindV 0,1 0,2 8 U/U n P P Q 3 Q ~ = = ~ = ~ 11 P Q! Q -0,4 20kV 110kV 380kV Problem: low impact on HV Level Methods to increase capability of Voltage control by RES incomplete detection of voltage variation in HV level 1 Direct connected synchron generators 5 Reduction of active power in favour of reactive current 9 Neutral earthing of WT main transformers 2 Piller-Princip (rotating mass) 3 Variation of P/Q-caracteristics 4 Larger Inverters 6 Use of STATCOM-Function 7 Continuous voltage support 8 Increase amplification factor at voltage regulator 10 Variation of voltage ranges 11 implementation of reactive power compensation Seite 29

30 Fraunhofer Wind Farm Cluster Management System (WCMS) Voltage Support Input Online power forcast Online Grid information Set point to the local wind farm controller Seite 30

31 Load Flow [MW] Fast Transition form Consumption to Supply Grids Power flow at 110 kv/ 20 kv Substation Fig: Courtesy of Bayernwerk AG Reverse power flow Seite 31

32 Distribution Management System MV/LV OLTCs Voltage support by PV inverters Optimization & Congestion Management Increasing Grid Hosting Capacity Seite 32 Fig.: J. von Appen et al., Time in the Sun, IEEE Power&Energy Magazine, March/April 2013

33 Storage Management Grids Roadmap Energiewende System Transformation Power Sector Grid Expansion Germany. Grid Expansion Europe Grid Coupling Electricity-Gas Smart Grid Technology Flexible Generation Flexible Demand Pump Storage Batteries, CAES Power-to-Gas Research, Development, Demonstration, Monitoring Seite 33 Quelle: IWES, 2011

34 Thank You The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Germany 66 Institutes at 45 locations 2012 Staff R&D-budget Million Kurt Rohrig Fraunhofer Institut für Windenergie und Energiesystemtechnik Kassel Oberhausen Dortmund Kassel Duisburg Schmallenberg St. Augustin Aachen Euskirchen Wachtberg St. Ingbert Bremerhaven Darmstadt Würzburg Saarbrücken Karlsruhe Pfinztal Ettlingen Stuttgart Freiburg Holzen Efringen- Kirchen Bremen Kaiserslautern Itzehoe Hannover Braunschweig Fürth Lübeck Halle Schkopau Ilmenau Erlangen Nürnberg Freising Potsdam Jena München Rostock Magdeburg Leipzig Chemnitz Holzkirchen Seite 34 Berlin Teltow Cottbus Dresden