Towards 100% Renewable Energy: The Impact of Germany s Nuclear Phase-out on Renewable Energy Development in Europe

Transcription

1 Towards 1% Renewable Energy: The Impact of Germany s Nuclear Phase-out on Renewable Energy Development in Europe Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Board Member BEE - German Renewable Energy Federation WREC 12 / WREF212 Denver, 16 th of May 212

2 BEE - the German Renewable Energy Federation is the umbrella organization of renewable energy in Germany, with 25 member associations and organizations representing 3. members, including 5. enterprises. Our target: 1 % of renewable energy.

3 The German Government s Energy Concept (9/28/21) Renewable energy sources are to account for the biggest share in this future energy mix. This energy mix will be dynamic, as conventional energy sources are steadily replaced by renewables. Nuclear energy is a bridging technology on this road. We are aiming for a market-oriented energy policy that is free of ideology and open to all technologies, embracing all paths of use for power, heat and transport. (Source: The German Government s Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply, page 3, published on 9/28/21 bold introduced by presenter)

4 Energy Concept 21: Targets Greenhouse Gas Reduction: minus 4% by 22, 55% by 23, 7% by 24, 8-95% by 25 (compared to 199 levels) Share of Renewable Energy in Gross Final Energy Consumption: 18% by 22, 3% by 23, 45% by 24, 6% by 25 Share of Renewables in Electricity Consumption: 35% by 22, 5% by 23, 65% by 24, 8% by 25 After Fukushima complete Phase-out of Nuclear Energy by 222

5 Share in [%] Renewables in Germany (211) 4 35 Renewable energy sources as a share of energy supply in Germany minimum 35. 1) Targets: Gross final energy consumption 18. 1) Share of RES in total gross electricity consumption ) Share of RES in total energy consumption for heat.9 Transport sector ,2) Share of RES in fuel consumption for road traffic in transport sector (2) Share of RES in total final energy consumption (electricity, heat, fuels) Share of RES in total primary energy consumption (3) 1) Sources: Targets of the German Government, Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG); Renewable Energy Sources Heat Act (EEWärmeG), EU-Directive 29/28/EC; 2) total consumption of engine fuels, excluding fuel in air traffic; 3) calculated using efficiency method; source: Working Group on Energy Balances e.v. (AGEB); RES: Renewable Energy Sources; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 212; all figures provisional

6 [GWh] RE Electricity in Germany Development of electricity generation from renewable energy sources in Germany since , 12, Hydropower Biomass * Wind energy Photovoltaics EEG: January 29 1, EEG: April 2 EEG: August 24 8, 6, 4, StromEinspG: January March 2 Amendment to BauGB: November , * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; electricity from geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities produced; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 6

7 ,528 7,55 1,5 1,59 15,786 18,713 25,59 27,229 3,71 39,713 4,574 38,639 37,793 46,5 2,32 2,966 4,489 [GWh] [MW] Electricity from Wind in Germany Development of electricity production and installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany 5, 45, 4, Electricity generation [GWh] installed capacity [MW] EEG: April 2 EEG: August 24 29,75 MW 3, 25, 35, 2, 3, 25, 2, Amendment to BauGB: November 1997 EEG: January 29 15, 15, StromEinspG: January March 2 1, 1, 5, 5, StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; 1 TWh = 1 Bill. kwh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; sources: electricity supply 211 according to 5Hertz Transmission, Amprion, TenneT TSO, EnBW Transportnetze; J.P. Molly: "Wind Energy Use in Germany - Status "; Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and German Wind Energy Association (BWE); BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); as at: March 212; image: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; all figures provisional 7

8 45 7 1,84 7,864 9,351 1,675 11,415 13,739 15,371 16,518 17,474 18,578 19,344 2,147 2,965 21,572 22,297 2,467 3,528 4,326 5,178 6,185 Number of plants [-] [MW] Installed Windpower in Germany Development of the number and installed capacity of wind energy plants in Germany 3, Installations, cumulative number of plants [-] 29,75 MW 3, 25, cumulative installed capacity [MW] 25, 2, StromEinspG: January March 2 Amendment to BauGB: November , 15, EEG: April 2 15, 1, EEG: August 24 EEG: January 29 1, 5, 5, Sources: J.P. Molly: "Wind energy use in Germany, as at "; Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI) and German Wind Energy Association (BWE); 1 TWh = 1 Bill. kwh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; all figures provisional 8

9 ,22 3,75 4,42 6, ,683 19, 556 1,282 [GWh] [MW p ] PV Capacity and Yield in Germany Installed capacity and energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany 26, 24, 22, Electricity supply [GWh] installed capacity [MWp] 24,82 MW p 26, 24, 22, 2, 2, 18, 18, 16, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; 1 MW = 1 Mill. Watt; image: BMU / Bernd Müller; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 9

10 1,434 1,471 1,558 1,636 4,737 5,27 6,38 8,247 1,875 2,13 2,12 2,277 1,77 14,25 18,685 24,281 27,531 3,341 33,866 36,92 3,26 3,589 [GWh] Biomass for Electricity in Germany 4, Development of biomass * use for electricity supply in Germany 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 1

11 [GWh] RE Heating & Cooling in Germany Contribution of renewable energy sources to heat supply in Germany since , Biomass * Solar thermal energy Geothermal energy 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Biomass share of RES - heat: 91 % * Solid and liquid biomass, biogas, sewage and landfill gas, biogenic share of waste; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; RES: Renewable Energy Sources; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Brigitte Hiss; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 11

12 ,26 1,261 1,587 1,884 2,144 2,443 2,778 3,218 3,638 4,134 4,733 5,2 5, [GWh] [1, m 2 ] Solar Thermal Heating in Germany Development of collector area and energy supply of solar thermal installations for heat supply in Germany 6, 5, Energy supply [GWh] Area, cumulative [m²] 16, 14, 12, 4, 1, 3, 8, 2, 6, 4, 1, 2, GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat) and ZSW; image: ZSW / Ulrike Zimmer; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 12

13 1,44 1,44 1,458 1,491 1,532 1,581 1,651 1,741 1,842 1,972 2,156 2,62 3,255 3,962 4,64 5,3 5,98 [GWh] Geothermal Heat in Germany 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, Development of (near-surface) geothermal energy use * for heat supply in Germany since ,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, * Including Air/Water-, Water/Water- and Brine/Water- Heat Pumps; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat) and ZSW; image: ZSW / Ulrike Zimmer; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 13

14 [GWh] RE for Transport in Germany Development of renewables-based fuel supply in Germany since , 45, 4, Bioethanol Vegetable oil Biodiesel 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Vegetable oil as a part of biogenic fuels used since 1992, Bioethanol since 24; 1 GWh = 1 Mill. kwh; source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Dieter Böhme; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 14

15 GHG-Reduction from Renewables in Germany (211) Total Greenhouse gas emissions avoided via the use of renewable energy sources in Germany 211 Electricity 87.3 million t Heat 37.2 million t Biofuels 4.8 million t Total GHG emissions avoided 211 (electricity/heat/transport): approx. 129 million t CO 2 equiv., incl. GHG emissions avoided due to electricity paid for under the EEG: approx. 7 million t CO 2 equiv GHG avoidance [million t CO 2 equiv.] Hydropower Wind energy Biomass Photovoltaics Geothermal energy Solar thermal energy Biofuels GHG: Greenhouse gas; deviations in the totals are due to rounding; geothermal energy not presented due to negligible quantities of electricity produced; source: Federal Environment Agency (UBA) according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: H.G. Oed; as at: March 212; all figures provisional 15

16 EU: New installed power capacity The Age of Renewables (and CNG) 211: RES 32 of 45 GW (=71.3%) PV 21 GW (=47%) Wind 9.6 GW (= 21%)

17 2% by 22 Europe can do more! EU-27: Surplus of about.7 % above the 22 target 25 MS forecast to achieve or exceed their binding 22 targets within national borders Only Italy and Luxembourg plan to use CoopMex to meet binding 22 targets According to the RES industry projections, the EU-27 could reach 24.4% Source: EREC_EU Roadmap

18 RES increase by sector (%) 4 35 NREAP-Projection: 21% RE in 22 Industry-Projection: more than 24% RE in 22 RES-E % 42.3% RES-H&C RES-T % 21.3% % % Source: EREC based on the NREAPs

19 Progress Reports 211 Reports about progress in 21 were due end of 211 Not all MS submitted reports so far In most MS Trajectory seems to be exceeded Most MS have reached or exceeded their indicative trajectories Some (AT, LT, NL...) have even fallen below 29 shares of RE Some NREAPs and/or support policies are under revision targets are revised downwards Retroactive changes in 211 (ES, CZ, UK...) Revision discussed / planned in 212 (ES, PT, EE, DE...) Framework revisions and target reductions are disturbing investor confidence and risking target achievement Clear commitment to 22-targets indispensable Perspective towards 23 and beyond is necessary 19

20 Energy Roadmap 25 (COM, Dec. 13, 211) Moving towards Efficiency and switching to Renewables * Develop a vision for 25 Delivering on decarbonization, security of supply and competiveness * Discuss milestones (targets) for 23 * Discuss new market design * Develop and assess different scenarios: - Reference Scenario - Current Policy Initiatives Missing Scenarios: - 1% Renewables - No nuclear & delayed CCS (combined) - High efficiency & high Renewables - High Energy Efficiency - Diversified supply technologies - High Renewable energy sources - Delayed CCS - Low nuclear

21 The Way forward: Ambitious implementation of the RED and strong policies for renewables is key for future oriented growth. Beware of downscaling ambition levels! Remove subsidies for unsustainable energy sources! Beware of support for technologies of the past! National policies are key and have to be thoroughly checked Beware of disturbing investor confidence! Develop real markets and a level playing field! Beware of market distortion and oligopolies! Adapt market design to renewable energy! Beware of inflexible infrastructure and baseload capacity! NEXT STEP: Do not hesitate to take unambiguous and clear decisions! Binding and ambitious renewable energy target for 23

22 Moving to 23 "With our roadmap we want to ensure that, for all participants, there should be an interesting discussion on binding targets for renewables by 23. This should begin now and lead to a decision in two years' time". 15 th of December 211, EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger

23 BEE German Renewable Energy Federation, Reinhardtstraße 18, D-1117 Berlin, fon