Chile is it a lasting comeback or will they struggle again?
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- Eileen Richardson
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1 Chile is it a lasting comeback or will they struggle again? A Cluster Partner Fish Pool Christmas Seminar, 22 Nov 2017 Dag Sletmo, DNB Ocean Industries - Seafood dag.sletmo@dnb.no, tel: (+47)
2 DNB Bank is a global seafood player 2
3 Why is Chile relevant from a Norwegian perspective? Chile explains half of the price variability Share of global supply variability All others Chile last 10 years: 21% of global production 53% of global supply variability Norway Chile Source: Kontali, DNB 3
4 Agenda: The historic problems The consequence of the problems The current status 4
5 Chile is super from a natural point of view So why the problems? Sea temperatures Source: Marine Harvest 5
6 Things were good until Development of Chile s salmon farming industry Source: Patrick Dempster, AquaGen Chile 6
7 The original problems «Desk top» placement of original licenses High density Weak sanitary regulations Weak cooperation & common infrastructure Many issues solved after ISA crisis. But not all.. 7
8 A license = a site 8
9 Major site optimization in Norway But not in Chile; when license = site restructuring difficult Strong decline in # of Norwegian sites even as volumes exploded Source: Cermaq, Norwegian Seafood Council 9
10 High biomass density Chile s biomass density at Norwegian max level Source: Fiskeridir, Sernepesca, DNB 10
11 Liberalistic economic policy has served Chile well But biologic industries are different! Chile an economic success story Source: World Bank 11
12 Cooperation is key for salmon farming success Government Good legal and administrative framework in aquaculture and fisheries Sustainable use of marine resources Source: DNB Industry Research 12
13 Agenda: The historic problems The consequence of the problems The current status 13
14 Consequences boom & bust! Boom & bust Prices (like Norway earlier..) Biology (unlike Norway) - Volume collapse - Cost increase 14
15 Chile more lower and more volatile margins Norway - earnings before tax (NOK/kg) Chile - earnings before tax (NOK/kg) Source: Kontali 15
16 Agenda: The historic problems The consequence of the problems The current status 16
17 The Chilean pain is over Source: Marine Harvest, DNB EBIT/kg NOK Norway vs Chile, Marine Harvest 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Oil price and NOK collapse Canadian harvest rebound Algal bloom Improving US prices due to drop in regional supply growth and weaker USD vs NOK and slowly improving cost trend Norway Chile Larger drop in Chilean prices than Norwegian as North American supply growth outpaced European growth 17
18 Norwegian and Chilean farm gate prices strongly linked.. Chilean and Norwegian prices move in tandem Source: Kontali, Urner Barry, Bloomberg, DNB 18
19 Chile regaining cost leadership in 2017? Average production cost Chile vs Norway Source: company reports, Fiskeridirektoratet, DNB Santiago 19
20 NOK the party is over, back to normal! NOK index Norway surfs on a commodity super-cycle fueled by Chinese demand. Strong NOK. The party is over! NOK reverts to preboom level Source: Norges Bank, DNB 20
21 FX impacts relative feed prices Feed prices in USD/kg Feed price in Norway less price in Chile, USD/kg Norway Chile It takes time for changes in USD-NOK to feed into the Norwegian feed price due to long supply chains, FIFO accounting and FX hedging. (Regional development in raw materials is also a factor) Source: DNB 21
22 Okay biology.. Biomass Atlantics, tons Sea lice (calgius) (caligus) Average harvest weights, Atlantics Monthly mortality Source: AquaBench 22
23 but antibiotics is still an issue Although indications of use continuing to trend down 2,8 # Antibiotics treatments Antibiotics volume # treatments over production cycle, average GSI Chile members 2,6 2,4 2, Source: GSI, AquaBench, DNB 23
24 Lessons learned! Patrick Dempster, AquaGen Chile Source: Patrick Dempster, AquaGen Chile 24
25 New regulations largely cap capacity But devilishly complicated New regulations Option 1 New farming density rules Option 2 Individual reduced stocking program 25
26 Summary Industry and authorities have reached new understanding New regulations limit growth potential Cost and sanitary conditions improving gradually Site structure should be reassessed, but that will take a long time Still need for ability to react faster in response to biological problems (regulations, treatments etc) 26
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