Systems representation of the GBM Delta

Transcription

1 ESPA Complexity Workshop The Honourable Society of Gray's Inn, London 8th 9th July 2014 Systems representation of the GBM Delta Attila N. Lázár 1, R. J. Nicholls 1, C. Hutton 1, H. Adams 2, M.M. Rahman 3, M. Salehin 3, D. Clarke 1, J. A. Dearing 1, J. Wolf 5, F.A. Johnson 1, Z. Matthews 1 1 University of Southampton, UK 2 University of Exeter, UK 3 Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh 5 National Oceanography Centre, UK a.lazar@soton.ac.uk

2 Presentation overview The ESPA Deltas project Integration (aim & concept) Model overview Summary 2

3 The ESPA Deltas project ( ( ) Overarching aim: to provide the Bangladeshi policy makers with the knowledge and tools that enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on people's livelihoods Consortium: UK (7), Bangladesh (11), India (4) Lead partner: University of Southampton June 2014, Rajendrapur, Dhaka, Bangladesh 3

4 Scales and project elements Endogenous governance (BD policies, laws, subsidies, flood protection, education system, ) demography incl. migration aquaculture agriculture Sundarbans Bay of Bengal char land fisheries off-shore fisheries Livelihood & land use markets security (financial, environmental) livelihood & poverty Exogenous drivers (upstream flow diversion, climate change, macro-economics, ) 4

5 Iterative learning with stakeholders 5

6 Project elements Sea level, SLP, SST, winds Delta Model FVCOM, Delft3D Surge level Bay Bengal Model GCOMS Temp, rainfall GCM/ RCM Catchment Models: GWAVA / INCA MODFLOW HydroTrend Water, sediment, nutrients Morphology & Land Cover Water flow, level, salinity, temp, sediment, nutrients Primary productivity, T,S,O 2, currents Land Use Quantitative Physical/Ecological Models Crop Model: CROPWAT Aquaculture Model Mangrove Model Coastal Fisheries Model Size- & Speciesbased models Inland Fisheries Model Knowledge integration / Scenarios Laws, policies Gaps, Conflicts, Implementation efficiencies Governance research Process understanding for each socio-ecological group + quantified behaviour Population projections Key issues, Scenarios Qualitative survey relationship b/t environment & social behaviour Quantitative survey (consumption, assets, employment, migration, health, poverty, ) Spatial associative model b/t land use and poverty Demographics, economics & poverty 6

7 Aim of integration work Special focus on rural poor: support provided by ES & dependence on ES to quantify ecosystem provisions with an integrated model (ΔDIEM) The model will be used to explore the impacts of changes in climate and sea level rise environmental change (e.g. salinization) land use changes (e.g. rice to shrimp farming) external influences (e.g. water quantity and quality in rivers) etc. The outputs will enable decision makers to identify the likely key drivers of change and the robustness of policy decisions 7

8 Many potential model framework 8

9 Research questions based on stakeholder issues a few examples What will be the extent of inland flooding following a hypothetical cyclone event? Where will the soil salinity thresholds lie for staple crops (e.g. rice, wheat, etc.)? What will be the effect of changing climate, river regime and salinity on agricultural, fisheries and aquaculture and thus poverty? What happens if there is a massive decline in GBM river flow and sediment transport? Where will the ability to derive any livelihood drop below an acceptable level thus driving migration? To what extent would subsidies or remittances offset the poverty increases or losses of livelihood in rural areas? What would be the effect on farmers and ecosystem services of a rapidly increasing trend in global commodity prices (e.g. rice)?

10 ΔDIEM framework Climate upstream interventions Cyclones Sea level & quality upstream Hydrology upstream Sediment transport Groundwater (flow & quality) River quality Inundation Morphodynamics Soil quality Mangrove delay? revenue Net Earnings Land suitability costs? delay Land Use & Land Cover? System productivity?? Market changes Demography credit Loan(s) payment Livelihoods Poverty delay 10

11 Main elements of the ΔDIEM model Salinity emulator river groundwater soil Land cover & land use model Hybrid ΔDIEM (Spatial statistical model) Upstream hydrology Sediment transport Sea level Human well-being & poverty indicators Coastal flow and inundation emulator Productivity models agriculture aquaculture capture fish forest goods livestock Process- Mangrove model Demography model Household-level livelihood model livelihood selection income expenditure food baskets loans future economics 11

12 Project (integration) approaches 1. Chain of existing models 2. Chain of simple models & Bayesian emulators Climate model Marine / Coastal / Estuarine model(s) Hydrological model(s) Climate model Marine / Coastal / Estuarine emulators Hydrological model(s) Fisheries model Social analysis & modelling Fisheries emulator Livelihood & land use model Mangrove model Agriculture model Mangrove emulator Agriculture model Pros: existing models / methods process understanding Cons: slow running time limited no of scenarios no feedback Pros: builds on calibrated models quick running time forward stepping feedback estimated uncertainty Cons: simplification boundary condition changes 12

13 Policy analysis & Sustainable development Boulanger & Brechet (2005): Models for policy-making in sustainable development: The state of the art and perspectives for 13 research. Ecological Economics 55:

14 Complexity research B. Ramalingam (2013): Aid on the edge of chaos: rethinking international 14 cooperation in a complex world, page 232

15 Complexity science Depending on the research question, one modelling approach might not enough. New novel modelling frameworks / tools / approaches are developing e.g. ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) Ferdinando Villa 15

16 Organised complexity within ΔDIEM Signature type Properties Hybrid ΔDIEM Process-based ΔDIEM Example in ΔDIEM Systems closed dynamic macro-patterns fully coupled models & emulators Behaviours diverse agents LULC and household livelihood models Relations flows path dependent fully coupled system Dynamics non-linear changes mechanistic delays individual models & emulators Probabilistic continuously updated uncertainty & likelihood 16

17 Summary ESPA Deltas - a generic, holistic approach ΔDIEM strongly builds on the detailed work in the WPs: a holistic tool (bio-physical environment, social behaviour and livelihood, governance) a metamodel (that enables the run of different models in a harmonised & systematic way) works at different scales Ongoing in-depth research in ESPA Deltas Hybrid ΔDIEM November 2014 process-based ΔDIEM March

18 Stakeholder engagement in ESPA Deltas continuous engagement validation of methods & results development scenario narratives discussing results identifying adaptation options knowledge transfer capacity building Have a chat with us at the ESPA Delta poster! 18

19 Thank you for your attention! 19