The State of our Ecosystems: A view from Sub-global Assessments of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Transcription

1 The State of our Ecosystems: A view from Sub-global Assessments of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Doris Capistrano Center for International Forestry Research 29 October 2007

2 Presentation Outline I. MA sub-global assessments II. Main messages and findings III. Sub-global perspectives on key issues

3 MA Framework

4 Map showing the sub-global assessments of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

5 Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

6 13% Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

7 Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

8 Source: UNEP-WCMC (2007)

9 To varying degrees, SGAs: Considered factors emanating from different scales Sought to incorporate different types of knowledge

10 Status of Sub-global Assessments The SGAs continue to excite interest; new SGAs are being initiated There is a larger proportion of MA-SGAs that are still underway, than have been completed. Most are either in the early stages of the assessment process or close to completion. Hence findings at this point are still partial and preliminary

11 II. Main Findings

12 SGA findings are broadly consistent with global results: Several ecosystem services are in fair to poor condition and declining; but their underlying dynamics vary Land use change is a key driver of change in ecosystem services; other drivers also important to varying degrees There are clear trade-offs among ecosystem services; costs and burdens not equitably distributed Interventions can mitigate trade-offs (across services, time and space)

13 CHANGE in AREAS WITH WILDERNESS CHARACTER IN THE GLOMMA BASIN More Than 5km From Substantial Technical Encroachment Source: Sandlund, O. T., Norway Technical Design & Methods (Panama, June 2002)

14

15 Despite gains in the provisioning of food, water and wood, the capacity of ecosystems to continue to provide these services is at risk in several locations

16 Caribbean Sea Some 80% of living corals in the reefs has been lost in the past 20 years; Some reefs changed from having 50% live coral cover to only 10%; Losing ability to serve as protective barrier; increased levels of beach erosion Continued decline would cost region US$ million per year by 2050

17 Greater Jakarta Bay Ecosystem

18 Number of fishers in Northern Jakarta Region

19 Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in Jakarta Bay (arrows indicate occurrence of micro-algal bloom)

20 Jakarta Bay fish production from local capture fishery landed at Fish Auction

21 Laguna Lake Basin, Philippines Fish production has declined by 64% from 1980 to 1996 Combined aquaculture and capture fisheries provided 66% of freshwater fish requirement of Metro Manila; now only providing 18% Social conflicts over fisheries; between fishery, agriculture, industry

22 Laguna Lake Basin, Philippines: trade-offs among food, water, urban and industrial development Pollution Industries Real Estates Vegetables Ornamentals Irrigation Yield/area Change in variety Use of pesticides Culture Population per capita consumption Price of rice Ricefield Area Rice Production Food demand/security Viaduct / polder Lake level Metro Manila Water Consumption Domestic Industrial cooling Power generation Rainfall Runoff Flood Typhoon Timing of planting Pests and diseases rats, snails water lily Alternative Livelihood: Fishing Cottage Industry Vegetables production Livestock Services

23 Distribution of the mainland systems analyzed in the Portugal Assessment (Direcção erald as Florestas 2003; MA 2004)

24 Condition and trend of the services in each ecosystem in Portugal Assessment (Arrows indicate trend of the condition ecosystem; hands indicate trend of the flow of ecosystem service)

25 Land use change in Portugal: interaction of economic policies, demographic change and biophysical conditions Source: Portugal Assessment

26 Portugal: area of main forest types (by dominating tree species) Source: Portugal Assessment

27 SAfMA: scope and organization

28 Fuelwood ENERGY There is no regional crisis, but many local ones

29 Nutrition FOOD The real African crisis is protein Carbohydrates (cal/cap/day) Nitrogenous fertliser (1000t) Protein (grams/capita/day) Fertiliser use Carbohydrates Protein

30 Places where ecosystem service fail are also centers of conflict

31 Western China land cover scenarios with climate changes Periods: from 1961 to 1990; from 2010 to 2039, from 2040 to 2069 and from 2070 to 2099 respectively)

32 Western China: rehabilitation and incentives for land use from farming to afforestation

33 SGA Findings on Biodiversity There is a consistent trend of biodiversity loss across a variety of ecosystems Mean assessments of biodiversity condition do not fully capture the range of conditions found in the assessment area. Conditions can be better or worse in different parts of the assessment area depending on factors such land use management practices, tenure and institutional arrangements Based on expert group rating, biodiversity condition in SGAs varied from poor to excellent

34 Qualitative assessment of biodiversity condition and trends in selected ecosystems in sub-global assessments Sub-global Assessment Condition* Trends Comment Altai-Sayan 3 good in forest, poor in steppe Bajo Chirripó 3 hunting pressure, timber harvest, biodiversity index, forest cover; heterogeneous across taxa Caribbean Sea 1 live coral cover Downstream Mekong 3 wetland area Eastern Himalayas 4 number and distribution of species India Local 4 conservation status, number of species India Urban 3 habitat quantity and quality, number of species, harvest pressure; heterogeneous across taxa Laguna Lake Basin 2 number of species Northern Range 3 expert opinion Norway 3 PNG 4 coral reefs Portugal 3 native habitat cover, number of species, population sizes *Scale: 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent)

35 Qualitative assessment of biodiversity condition and trends in selected sub-global assessments Sub-global Assessment Condition* Trends Comment SAfMA G-M (Gorongosa) 4 number of ecosystems SAfMA Gariep 3 number of species, vegetation types, irreplaceability SAfMA Regional 4 biodiversity intactness index, forest area San Pedro de Atacama 3 number of species São Paulo 4 number of species, vegetation cover Sinai 3 number and distribution of native species Tropical Forest Margins aboveground plant biodiversity measured as number of species and functional types Acre, Brazil 4 Rondonia, Brazil 2 Ebolowa, Cameroon 5 Yaounde, Cameroon 3 Jambi, Indonesia 4 Lampung, Indonesia 1 Western China NW 2 Western China SW 4 *Scale: 1 (poor) to 5 (excellent)

36 III. Sub-global perspectives on key issues

37 Thousands above (red) and below (blue) > < >10 Sub-Global Assessment Freshwater Bad Poor Fair Good Excellent The condition and trends of ecosystem may depend on the scale of analysis

38 Global forces significantly affect magnitude and quality of ecosystem services down to farm and household levels. Following forces are especially influential: Global markets and trade Climate change Shifts in global political and economic order

39 Where there are no social safety nets, diminished well-being increases immediate dependence on ecosystems People devalue the consequences of their actions on future generations and other scales when their security of life and livelihood is threatened People likely to avoid commitment to altered resource management if they perceive their returns as vulnerable or variable

40 Effective institutions and governance arrangements evolve in response to site and culture specific conditions and extreme events Local actions (responses) can have global significance although there are time lags. It takes time for the effects to be noticed at coarser scales Market mechanisms may obscure the process

41 Emergence of non-governmental interests as agenda setters on the global stage Bridging organizations and individuals play important roles in facilitating learning, collaboration, and evolution of new institutions

42 Guiding Principles Deliberative and Collective Decision Making Chaos B Cyclic s-t Adaptive management and learning process Hananpacha Kaypacha Andean Landscapes: Space-time-thought construction Resilience Chaos A Ukupacha Source: Vilcanota SGA

43 The view from below on issues of common concern Market forces: At global level forces seen as governing large scale resource allocation, changing ecosystems At localized scales, these determine livelihood strategies, security and protective responses

44 Environmental degradation: At global level, focus on issues of biodiversity and climate change in broad aggregates At localized scale, tied up to complex tradeoffs associated with the provision of ecosystems services on which livelihoods depend

45 Perceptions and uses of institutional channels for response: At global level, often pertains to global agreements and financial commitments At the localized level, focuses on cooperative resource management and indigenous advocacy

46 Concluding Comments: The CBD helped open up spaces at the global level that is transforming global environmental governance with consequent ripple effects More needs to be done to address key drivers of ecosystem change and to reduce inequities in sharing benefits and burdens Action and effective responses critical to progress towards global biodiversity and poverty reduction targets