Drought a vision of the future

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Drought early warning Ana Iglesias Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain EO Summer School, Rome, 3 August 204 2006 2 Drought a vision of

meteorological and increased vulnerability and greater impacts Question Policy-makers often base their decisions on economic considerations; yet there seems to be a gap in the availability of

1 Drought early warning Ana Iglesias Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain EO Summer School, Rome, 3 August Drought a vision of the future Increased frequency and severity of meteorological s Increased impacts associated with increased vulnerability Combination of the two increasing risk because of greater frequency of meteorological and increased vulnerability and greater impacts Question Policy-makers often base their decisions on economic considerations; yet there seems to be a gap in the availability of economic evidence that preparedness is less costly than conventional emergency response. How can the assessment of socioeconomic consequences of be used to change this perception of preparedness? 4 Imagine you have a forecast What to do? How to do it? A range of overlapping phenomena that lead to different cultures of water management Water Scarcity Regime Nature produced Man induced Temporary Drought Water shortage Permanent Aridity Desertification 5 6

2 Arabic English Farsi French Greek Italian Spanish Iglesias A, Garrote L, Cancelliere A, Cubillo, Wilhite D (2008) Coping with risk in Agriculture and water supply systems. Springer: Advances in natural and technological hazards research, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 32 pp 8 Hazard, risk, vulnerability Multiple dimensions of, increasing complexity hazard risk social vulnerability Meteorological Ecosystems and agriculture Social and economic Response Warning Forecasting Monitoring Process adapted from the concept of Hagget,

DEWFORA Drought monitoring declaration mitigation Implement post recovery plan warning alert 3 Anomaly correlations of the different seasonal forecasts (columns) starting in November for different

3 DEWFORA Drought monitoring declaration mitigation Implement post recovery plan warning alert 3 Anomaly correlations of the different seasonal forecasts (columns) starting in November for different lead times Source: DEWFORA Meteorological index Percent of Precipitation Deciles Standardized Precipitation (SPI) Palmer Drought Severity (PDSI) percent of precip deciles of precip probability of precip for a time scale widely used includes soil + simple, widely used, effective for comparing regions precipitation distribution not normal + simple, widely used, accurate statistical requires a long climatic data record Gibbs and Maher (967) + widely used, may provide insight of hydrological caution when precipitation does not have a normal distribution (McKee et al, 993) + widely used, very comprehensive, effective for agricultural Lags emerging s, less well suited for complex topography, comparability Palmer (965); Alley (984) Palmer Drought (PHDI) Surface Water Supply (SWSI) Reclamation Drought (RDI) Water Exploitation (WEI) inflow, outflow, and storage developed from PHDI, accounts for snowpack temp, precip, snowpack, + represents surface water supply and management (storage and irrigation) formulation unique to each basin, does not take into account the long term trend Karl and Knight (985) + represents surface water supply and management (storage) Formulation unique to each basin, does not take into account the long term trend + accounts for evaporation formulation unique to each basin Bureau of Reclamation (988) reservoir levels ratio of water + allows priority setting and comparability demand to data intensive total EEA (2009) Agricultural Palmer Moisture Anomaly (Z index) Crop Moisture (CMI) Soil Moisture Anomaly ised Diff. Vegetation (NDVI) BasedonPDSI/ current anomaly PDSI Precip and evapotransp. Veg. state from satellite images + responds quickly to changes in soil, effective for agricultural Complicated formulation Palmer (965); Karl (986) + identifies potential agricultural s in the short term may not be a good long term monitoring tool Pl Palmer (968) + characterise s on global basis, intermediate btw rapid CMI and slow PDSI Difficult to calculate Bergman et al. (988) + widely used, vegetation health technical and analytical difficulties, vegetation health not only due to Indicator Social Drought Vulnerability Human Development Socioeconomic vulnerability index World Bank Indicators + comprehensive, includes underlying causes of damage to society data at administrative level, social assumptions difficult to convey Iglesias et al (2009) + includes considerations of potential social alternatives data at administrative level, social assumptions difficult to convey IWMI (2009) 3

4 Component Human capital Economic development Drought Vulnerability Source: Iglesias et al., 2009 Mechanisms of risk sharing Institutional response Environmental aspects Agricultural Aspects Indicators literacy rate; Population with level of education; Rural population % of GDP from agriculture/gdp per capita, Life expectancy at birth % Access to drinkable water Insurance, Agricultural policies Drought regulations; Drought management plans; Institutional agencies; Access to financial services Soil degradation Cultivation techniques; Crop varieties Drought Vulnerability DATA: FAO, UN, World Bank Scale 0 to (Least to most vulnerable) Source: Iglesias et al., 2009 Some results: Algeria = 0.23 Egypt = 0.74 Libya = 0.6 Morocco = 0.37 Tunisia = 0.23 Spain = Drought Vulnerability 00 Linking science to solutions ulnerability (% Drought Vu What is the science available? What are the societal capacities? 0 Cyprus Greece Italy Morocco Spain Tunisia Vulnerability (Scen ) Vulnerability (Scen 2) Scen All components weighted equally Scen 2 Human and civic resources more important 2 How can science be translated into policy? How can society benefit from the forecast? 22 Operational component Defines the strategy and the measures Measures to be Permanent implemented measures during 23 INDICATORS (permanent monitoring, forecast) meteorological, hydrological, environmental, socio-economic PRE-ALERT Initial stage of danger ALERT Drought will have impacts EMERGENCY Impacts have occurred and supply is not guaranteed ACTIONS (taken in response to ) should be triggered by indicators PRE-ALERT Voluntary, focus on raising awareness ALERT Mandatory, non structural, directed to limit water use EMERGENCY Restrictive, structural or new abstractions 4

5 Implementation of policy Australia: One level (Exceptional Circumstances) Spain: 3 levels USA: from 2 to 5 levels Selecting the actions. Establishing priorities 2. Management objectives 3. Defining thresholds 4. Defining actions Shortcomings of DEWS Data networks Data sharing Early warning system products Drought forecasts Drought monitoring tools Integrated /climate/water supply monitoring Impact assessment methodologies Delivery systems Global early warning systems A wish list More reliable seasonal forecasts More reliable and timely water impact assessments Higher resolution analysis of policy support 28 Experts help the DEWFORA team address critical issues, 40 people, 8 countries % 45% 23% 23% 7% Socio political emphasis Weather forecast emphasis 5

Methods for evaluating social vulnerability to drought [Part 1. Components of drought planning Methodological component]

Methods for evaluating social vulnerability to drought [Part 1. Components of drought planning. 1.3. Methodological component] Iglesias A., Moneo M., Quiroga S. in Iglesias A. (ed.), Moneo M. (ed.), López-Francos