Climate Change and Ontario: From Impacts to Adaptation. (A Terrestrial Perspective)

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Ontario: From Impacts to Adaptation (A Terrestrial Perspective) November 2011

2 Climate is.. temperature precipitation wind Average weather over months to millions of years (Nova Scotia Renewable Energy)

3 1.2 o C [~Last 100 Years] 0.98 o C 0.26 o C (Source: Lemieux et al., 2005)

4 Synergy: Multiple Forces at Work Primary Impacts Cumulative Impacts Habitat Modification & Loss Climate Change Pollution Invasive Species Over-harvest Metabolic Dysfunction Accidental Death

5 Some Emerging Concepts (Axioms)? 1. It is risky to make medium and long-term decisions that assume a stable climate. 2. Every species and every ecosystem will respond to climate change in a unique way. 3. New and potentially increased threats to human health and well-being. 4. The concept/ideal/target of sustainability will require re-evaluation. 5. Making decisions about natural assets in climates that have not arrived yet may require new robust governance tools and techniques. 6. A commitment to civic duty and participation is important. 7. Every town and city and every industry will be confronted with a unique set of climate-induced impacts and associated management issues, and will need to plan for a range impacts with a range of solutions and adaptation strategies.

6 Ontario Embraces a Strategic Approach to Managing for Climate Change MNR and MNDMF, in collaboration with other partners, stakeholders and communities, should assess the climate change vulnerability of the Great Lakes -St. Lawrence, Carolinian, and Boreal Forest and their associated forest-based communities MNR will undertake ecosystem vulnerability assessments and evaluate the risk of climate change impacts to inform adaptation planning of Ontario s most affected and vulnerable ecosystems and species The Ministry of Natural Resources will explore ecologically-based climate change vulnerability assessments at the species and ecosystem levels as a critical step in an adaptive management approach to natural resource management.

7 (Source: Utne Magazine, 2002) We don t really know how people will behave during the next 100 years Temperature Scenarios [Union of Concerned Scientists, 2003] ~2-6 o C

8 [there are 40 scenarios] More Emissions Less Emissions (Source: IPCC, 2001)

9 Multi-model Global Averages of Warming (Relative to ): Selected Scenarios??????

10 Atmospheric-Ocean General Climate Model Projections of Surface Temperatures

11 Describing Ontario s Future Climates A2 Scenario Moderately Industrial Dan McKenney - CFS Steve Colombo - MNR Annual Temperature Difference Between and

12 Modelling for Climate Change in Ontario

13 Winter temperature Temperature Change by to 10 8 to 9 7 to to 7 5 to Temperature increase 4 to to to 9 7 to 8 +6 to 7 +5 to 6 +4 to 5 Average winter temperature, CGCM2, A2 scenario

14 Biodiversity and Ecodiversity Ecosystems Genes Species

15 Organism Response to Rapid Climate Change: [Adapt, Move, or Die] Adaptation/Micro-evolution [Lori Stiles] Home Range Change/ Migration Extirpation/Extinction

16 [Varrin et al., 2007]

17 Demography expansion Black-legged Tick A2 Known and potential effects Ixodes scapularis is the vector for the causative agent of Lyme Disease in humans Increased adult survivorship in winter leads to range expansion at northern boundary Adapted from Ogden et al Internat. J. Parasitol. 36:

18 Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum) Climatic Range ( ) Future Climatic Range ( and , CGCM B2)

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21 Demography contraction Moose Known and potential effects Possible declines in southern parts of range as precipitation (in parts of the range) and temperature increase In areas with marked increases in snowfall, increased pressure from wolf predation may occur which may further facilitate moose declines As deer invade moose range, potential for an increased incidence of P. tenuis and liver fluke infection in moose and increased mortality [Varrin et al., 2007]

22 Phenology expansion Eastern Bluebird Known and potential effects Eastern Bluebird is now migrating and breeding earlier due to warmer winters (Butler 2003, Torti and Dunn 2005) May even begin to over-winter in some areas of Ontario where average January temperature does not fall below -6.7 C Potential to expand number of broods produced in one breeding season, leading to range expansion [Varrin et al., 2007]

23 Phenology Expansion: Earthworms 19+ Invasive Species 2 - North America 17 - Europe?? - Asia Pink Soil Worm (A. rosea) European Bark Worm (D. rubidus) Red marsh Worm (L. rubellus)

24 Earthworms: Impacts without worms with worms University of Minnesota

25 Phenology contraction Polar Bear Known and potential effects Gain most weight in spring before ice break-up, while young ringed seals are abundant Due to earlier ice break-up, bears must come ashore earlier and in poorer condition leading to lower reproductive success (Obbard et al. 2006) Lose kg/day during ice-free period Possible northward shift of population and potential extirpation from Ontario [Varrin et al., 2007]

26 Genetics expansion Red Squirrel Known and potential effects In Yukon climate warming increased availability of white spruce cones. Increased food and warmer spring temperatures caused females to advance birth date by 18 days over 10 years. Change due to a combination of phenotypic plasticity and inherited traits allowing for earlier birth dates. In Ontario expansion will in part depend on switching from spruce to pine. [Varrin et al., 2007]

27 Genetics contraction Black Capped Chickadee (Photo by Jeff Sorbie) Black-capped chickadee Known and potential effects The 2 species are very similar and cross fertilize = hybridization. Mixed parents have reduced hatching success. Offspring have reduced reproductive success. Carolina chickadee is moving north at 2 km/year. Eventually will replace the black-capped chickadee in southern part of its range. Carolina chickadee [Varrin et al., 2007]

28 Will biodiversity increase in a warmer climate? Energy models do not account for biotic interactions.. Probability of Extinction # # #S # #S #S #S #S #S Synergy Lake Huron #S #S #S # #S #S #S #S #S #S #S # # # # # #S #S # #S Lake Ontario # Asynchrony +? Asymmetry Thresholds [Varrin et al., 2007] Higher Annual Precipitation Lower

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30 Impacts on Fire Management [Rob McAlpine] Trend in Fire Weather Index Start-up Date (Days/Decade) [Trend is statistically significant (95% confidence)]

31 The Impact of Climate Change on an Emerging Coastline Affected by Discontinuous Permafrost: Manitounuk Strait, Northern Quebec Nancy Beaulieu and Michel Allard Canadian Journal of Earth Science, 40: (2003)

32 Ecosystem Flip Permafrost Degradation in Interior Alaska Thermokarst (indicating degraded permafrost) in a birch forest. Spruce and birch forests on the Tanana Flats, which are part of a large lowland basin in interior Alaska. (Source: Racine and Ferrick, 2005)

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34 Coniferous Forest Marsh Emergent Vegetation Submergent Vegetation Panne Dunes Beach Deciduous Forest Shrub Coniferous Plantation 1 Metre

35 (D. Tyerman, 2004)

36 Photo of Gull Island taken from Owen Point [Source: Mark Taylor, May 2006]

37 2002 Halfway Lake Tornado

38 Adaptation Options: Examples Protect sufficient core areas to ensure population viability (birth and death) Connect cores areas to allow immigration and emigration Rehabilitate sufficient cores where they are absent Track and Monitor

39 Connecting Blueways and Greenways in the Lake Simcoe Watershed Natural cover (left) and measures of landscape fragmentation (right) for each Lake Simcoe subwatershed. Lighter coloured polygons represent higher levels of fragmentation.

40 Example applications with the climate data Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources

41 Past and projected climate trends - Annual Mean Temperature - Forthcoming: McKenney et al Forestry Chronicle

42 Using climate grids in a forest regeneration context Seedwhere a play on the word software (where can I move seed?) Now implemented in a web environment (being tested) Continent-wide Maps the similarity of climate of a selected location to a selected region using the Gower metric Can investigate similarity with climate change scenarios

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45 Mitigate Adapt Mitigate Adapt [Source: D. Etkin]

46 The End