Energy Efficiency & Integrated Resource Planning. Ellen Zuckerman & Jeff Schlegel Southwest Energy Efficiency Project (SWEEP)

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency & Integrated Resource Planning Ellen Zuckerman & Jeff Schlegel Southwest Energy Efficiency Project (SWEEP)

2 Energy Efficiency is the Least Expensive Energy Resource Available to Meet Customer Needs Levelized Cost $/MWh $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $- Comparison of TEP EE Costs to Other Resources Acutal 2011 EE Cost Acutal 2012 EE Cost Acutal 2013 EE Cost Acutal 2014 EE Cost Actual 2015 EE Cost Wind (50 MW) Solar Fixed PV (20 MW) Solar Single Axis Tracking (20 MW) Natural Gas Combined Cycle Natural Gas ReciprocaVng Engines Small Modular Reactor Solar Thermal (6-hour storage, 100 MW) Small AeroderivaVve CT Small Frame CT Data Source: Tucson Electric Power (TEP) 2016 Preliminary Integrated Resource Plan and Supplement; TEP Demand Side Management Reports EE costs exclude costs and savings of demand response. Costs are all poruolio costs including rebates and incenvves; training and technical assistance; consumer educavon; program implementavon; program markevng; planning and administravon; measurement, evaluavon, and research; and the uvlity performance incenvve.

3 Resource Capacity Cost Comparison PorGolio TEP Incremental EE (2015) APS Incremental EE (2015) Capacity Savings, MW* PorGolio Costs* $/kw 24.5 $16.0M $ $62.8M $629 *Does not include demand response or behavioral efficiency programs. Costs are all poruolio costs including rebates and incenvves; training and technical assistance; consumer educavon; program implementavon; program markevng; planning and administravon; measurement, evaluavon, and research; and performance incenvves. Source: TEP/APS 2015 Annual DSM Progress Reports. Resource $/kw CombusVon Turbine (Aero) $1,250 CombusVon Turbine (Frame) $800 ReciprocaVng Engine $1,200 Small Modular Reactor $6,400 Natural Gas Combined Cycle $1,300 Source: TEP 2016 IRP.

4 Energy Efficiency Technologies HVAC Motors Appliances Lighting Shading Building Envelope Source: SRP 2014 Energy Efficiency Annual Report Slide from Arizona State University

5 DSM Portfolios, Programs, and Measures in AZ AZ DSM Portfolios Example Programs: TEP Example Measures: Small Business/Schools Residential Programs: [Others] Low-income Weatherization Residential New Construction Shade Tree Program Efficient Products Existing Homes Retrofit and Audit Direct Install Multi-Family Appliance Recycling Non-Residential Programs C&I Comprehensive Small Business/Schools Commercial New Construction Bid For Efficiency Retro-Commissioning Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Behavioral Sector Behavioral Comprehensive Support Sector Consumer Education and Outreach Energy Codes and Standards Utility Improvement Sector Conservation Voltage Reduction Generation Improvement and Facilities Upgrade C&I Direct Load Control Program 1. 14/15/16 SEER Packaged and Split ACs 2. 14/15/16 SEER Packaged and Split HPs 3. Advanced Power Strips, Load Sensors, Occupancy Sensors, Timer Plug Strip 4. Anti-sweat Heater Controls 5. Beverage Controls 6. Day lighting Controls 7. De-lamping 8. Energy Efficiency Exit Signs 9. Evaporative Fan Controls 10. Hard Wire CFL 11. HIDs to T8/T5 12. High Efficiency Evaporator Fan Motors 13. Induction Lighting Interior 14. Integral Screw In CFL 15. Integrated Case Control and Motor Retrofit 16. LED Interior 17. Occupancy Sensors 18. Outdoor CFL 19. Programmable Thermostats 20. Refrigerated Display Automatic Door Closers 21. Strip Curtains 22. Variable Speed Drives Slide from Arizona State University

6 New DSM Technologies Recently Western Cooling Control Optimizer Introduced in AZ Smart Thermostats Conservation Voltage Reduction Slide from Arizona State University

7 Energy Efficiency Resources Build Up Capacity Over Time Capacity (MW) Capacity ContribuLons of Energy Efficiency with Time EE 2015 EE 2016 EE 2017 EE 2018 EE EE programs build up capacity resources over Lme, as customers make decisions on buildings, appliances, and equipment, and as EE measures are installed. For example, when an EE measure such as aqc insulalon is installed, that aqc insulalon will deliver capacity benefits in the year that it is installed and in subsequent years (as the insulalon is not removed). In this way, EE resources implemented in any one year conlnue to deliver capacity benefits for mullple years. In addilon, EE resources implemented in subsequent years build on the contribulon of EE resources implemented earlier.

8 Capacity Provided by EE Investments From is Far Greater than Recent Supply Side AddiVons that are ComparaVvely More Expensive 600 Capacity ContribuLons of TEP, APS, and UNSE EE ( ) Versus Capacity of OcoLllo Expansion 500 Capacity (MW) EE Capacity ContribuVons OcoVllo Expansion (Net Capacity Increase Aher Steam Unit ReVrements) Data Source: Arizona Public Service DSM Reports; Tucson Electric Power DSM Reports; UNSE DSM Reports; Arizona Public Service 2014 IRP. Capacity contribuvons from demand response and behavioral energy efficiency programs were excluded.

9 TEP has Unmet Capacity Needs Over the Next 15 Years Resource Capacity (MW), Capacity Required to Meet Peak Demand (MW) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, TEP Load Forecast; ExisLng Resources (without EE, DR, and Distributed Renewable Energy) Unmet capacity needs Coal Natural Gas UVlity Scale Renewables Market Resources Storage Load ObligaVons * * Load obligavons are without effects of EE, DR, and DG; and include a 15% reserve margin. Data Source: Tucson Electric Power (TEP) 2016 Preliminary Integrated Resource Plan and Supplement.

10 EE Helps TEP to Meet its Unmet Capacity Needs Resource Capacity (MW), Capacity Required to Meet Peak Demand (MW) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, TEP Load Forecast; ExisLng Resources (with EE, DR, and Distributed Renewable Energy) Coal Natural Gas UVlity Scale Renewables Market Resources Storage Distributed Renewables Demand Response Energy Efficiency Load ObligaVons * * Load obligavons are without effects of EE, DR, and DG; and include a 15% reserve margin. Data Source: Tucson Electric Power (TEP) 2016 Preliminary Integrated Resource Plan and Supplement.

11 EE Meets Between ~30-55% of Unmet Capacity Needs Each Year Over the Next 15 Years ContribuLon of Resources to Unmet Capacity Requirements (MW) ContribuLon of Future Resource AddiLons to Unmet Capacity Needs Energy Efficiency Demand Response Distributed Renewables Unment Capacity Need * Unmet capacity need is without effects of EE, DR, and DG; and include a 15% reserve margin. Data Source: Tucson Electric Power (TEP) 2016 Preliminary Integrated Resource Plan and Supplement.

12 Failure to Invest in EE will Result in Investment in More Expensive Supply Side Resources SWEEP examined a hypothelcal scenario where EE capacity is replaced with supply side resources in TEP s 2016 IRP. We assumed the alternalve supply side resource would be a 102MW combuslon turbine (such as the one proposed by APS at OcoLllo). The figure illustrates the build out of combuslon turbine units necessary to provide capacity resources equivalent to the capacity provided by EE in TEP s 2016 IRP. As shown in this figure, failure to invest in EE will result in significant investment in supply side resources that are comparalvely more expensive. Indeed, TEP would need to build three combuslon turbines over the planning horizon and would need to commence construclon immediately. Data Source: Tucson Electric Power (TEP) 2016 Preliminary Integrated Resource Plan and Supplement.

13 TEP Slows its Investment in EE Aher the EE Standard Sunsets TEP Annual Incremental Energy Efficiency Investment Post EE Standard 20 MW Data Source: Tucson Electric Power (TEP) 2016 Preliminary Integrated Resource Plan and Supplement.

14 Contact InformaVon! Ellen Zuckerman (m)! Jeff Schlegel (m)